This challenge started on page 518. Looks like we're going to make it to 200 pages @ 20 posts per page, that is 4000 rolls. Admittedly, a few of the posts were not rolls, but ... dang!
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 3 + 6 + 4 + 5 = Unable to parse dice roll.
I did some probability calculations on this challenge at lunch today.
to hit a 4 or a 32 is 1:4096 or about 0.0244 %
to hit the easiest number, 18, is a 4.1% chance.
when you consider that not hitting a 32 is 4095/4096, then we have a 50% chance of missing the number in 2838 consecutive rolls. But we have rolled close to 4000 times already, and the probability of rolling 4000 times without a success is 37.66%. And every unsuccessful roll drives that further down. I worry that we'll get down to below 25% based on the trends.
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Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
I did some probability calculations on this challenge at lunch today.
to hit a 4 or a 32 is 1:4096 or about 0.0244 %
to hit the easiest number, 18, is a 4.1% chance.
when you consider that not hitting a 32 is 4095/4096, then we have a 50% chance of missing the number in 2838 consecutive rolls. But we have rolled close to 4000 times already, and the probability of rolling 4000 times without a success is 37.66%. And every unsuccessful roll drives that further down. I worry that we'll get down to below 25% based on the trends.
Nice work. I'm just excited that we might see a 32 soon and then start rolling different dice. 17
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 6 + 7 + 4 + 5 = 22
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
4d8 attempt: 4 + 5 + 2 + 4 = 15
Last to know and first to be blamed...
As a free action, can I regret my life choices?
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 2 + 3 + 5 + 8 = 18
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
20
Tank, submarine, plane, and D&D nerd. I'm just here for the forum games and maybe some D&D every once in a while.
For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.-John 3:16
feeling lucky 6, 1, 5, 2
Zim Eaglecleft, Fighter 1 (Farmer Dwarf), Descent into Avernus (Hardcore)
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 = 11
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
4d8, 5 + 6 + 5 + 1 = 17
Zim Eaglecleft, Fighter 1 (Farmer Dwarf), Descent into Avernus (Hardcore)
4d8 attempt: 7 + 8 + 8 + 2 = 25
Last to know and first to be blamed...
As a free action, can I regret my life choices?
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 4 + 2 + 1 + 2 = 9
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
4d8 attempt: 6 + 7 + 4 + 7 = 24
Last to know and first to be blamed...
As a free action, can I regret my life choices?
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 7 + 4 + 1 + 4 = 16
This challenge started on page 518. Looks like we're going to make it to 200 pages @ 20 posts per page, that is 4000 rolls. Admittedly, a few of the posts were not rolls, but ... dang!
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
4d8 attempt: 8 + 4 + 5 + 4 = 21
My rolls are so poor, I'd hate to even classify them as rolls. Consider them 'suggestions'.
Last to know and first to be blamed...
As a free action, can I regret my life choices?
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 = 21
Mine are mostly a sound effect. Bumble-de-bumble-de-bumm.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
4d8 attempt: 5 + 7 + 2 + 1 = 15
(the nat 1 rolls echo echo echo)
Last to know and first to be blamed...
As a free action, can I regret my life choices?
Rollin' a 32 ... 4d8 = 3 + 6 + 4 + 5 = Unable to parse dice roll.
I did some probability calculations on this challenge at lunch today.
to hit a 4 or a 32 is 1:4096 or about 0.0244 %
to hit the easiest number, 18, is a 4.1% chance.
when you consider that not hitting a 32 is 4095/4096, then we have a 50% chance of missing the number in 2838 consecutive rolls. But we have rolled close to 4000 times already, and the probability of rolling 4000 times without a success is 37.66%. And every unsuccessful roll drives that further down. I worry that we'll get down to below 25% based on the trends.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
16
27
Hi, I’m DrakenBrine, here’s my Sig and characters
I am The Grand Envisioner!
Nice work. I'm just excited that we might see a 32 soon and then start rolling different dice. 17
Zim Eaglecleft, Fighter 1 (Farmer Dwarf), Descent into Avernus (Hardcore)
20
Hi, I’m DrakenBrine, here’s my Sig and characters
I am The Grand Envisioner!
4d8 attempt: 8 + 5 + 7 + 6 = 26
Last to know and first to be blamed...
As a free action, can I regret my life choices?