Hello everyone! First off, I want to make it clear that I think concentration is a good mechanic. The only part I have a question about is the part of the rule that makes you roll a save every time you take damage. This seems to me that it would make many or most concentration spell intended for front-line combat useless. Consider Flame Blade, Barkskin, or Shapechange. It also seems like it would cause problems for front-line mages such as the Bladesongs, Warlocks (especially Hexblades), Rangers, Clerics, Paladins, and Druids. This counts double for druids as they are clearly intended for front-line combat their medium armor, shield, and martial weapon proficiencies and Wildshape. Especially since the Druid spell list is something 65% concentration spells, higher than any other list. Anyway, on to the statistics.
By assuming reasonable well optimized characters fighting level appropriate monsters, I calculated the probability of losing concentration for every attack. By assuming monsters gain multi attacks as their CR increases, and using the average damage per round from the DMG CH. 9, I was able to estimate the number of save that would have to be made the the DCs to successfully save against an average attack. However, this does not cover above average rolls, high damage single attacks that couldn't possibly be saved from, or critical hits. The details of my analysis can be found in this spreadsheet: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AovkySnoCJtrgsk8rJnWtFFFezc8Ig.
Anyway, at the low levels, a spell caster has around a 30% chance of losing concentration every round with just a single enemy attacking them. By CR 20, even with a character at level 20, the chance of losing concentration is nearly 100%. Even with War Caster, the odds of keeping a spell active long enough to be worth the spell slot is quite low. It gets even worse at high levels. The Shapechange spell is likely to do little more than burn an action and a 9th level spell slot. It is highly probable that you will lose concentration on the spell before you can ever use any of your new forms abilities.
I have played with some ideas to make these spells a bit more useful. One idea is that only critical attacks can break concentration. Another is that any attack that rolls a 19-20 and any spell save that rolls a 1-2 can break concentration. Another idea is a damage threshold on breaking concentration so you don't lose a spell because of a scratch. The damage threshold could be your character's level. Another idea is to grant proficiency on concentration saves for concentration spells casted on yourself or with a range of "self." The most aggressive of these ideas leads to a probability of losing concentration >5% at low levels and around 80% at high levels. This seems a bit overpowered to me though.
Have I made a mistake in my analysis? Is this not as bit of a deal as it seems? Is the impact on front-line casters less that I think? Has anyone else had an issue with this and found a solution?
I don't think it is as bad as you think it is. 90% of spellcasters will be avoiding most of the damage anyway. And concentration DC is half the damage, so you have to take 22 damage before your fail rate reaches 50% with only 10 CON and no proficiency or feats. It is a shame so few casters have CON save proficiency though.
*The druid has so many concentration spells so they can cast and wildshape.
You make a couple of good points. Most frontline mages (Hexblades, Bladesongs, and Palidens) will not be using concentration spells. That really just leaves the Druid. And yes, the chance of losing concentration appears low at first glance, it’s deceptively high. 5e is built on the principle that dealing and taking damage is more fun than missing or being missed. Most attacks have a 60% (P(H)=0.6) chance of hitting. With 1 CON, you will have a 55% (P(S)=0.55) chance of saving. That leaves a 73% chance of maintaining concentration per attack (P(C) = P(~H) + P(H) * P(S) = 0.4 + 0.6 * 0.55 = .73). At lower levels, it’s a bit higher and at higher levels, it’s a bit lower. However, most creatures have multi-attack. Higher level creatures have 3+ attacks when using multi-attack. This reduces the likely to 53% with 2 attacks (P(C’) = P(C)^2 = 0.73 ^ 2 = 0.53). With 2 enemies, your chances are 28% (P(C)^4) and it only gets worse from there. This doesn’t even consider criticals or high damage attacks.
This is a considerable issue for Druids since they can’t cast a new spell in Wildshape witch is a frontline form. Perhaps the solution is to grant CON save proficiency to Wildshape forms and apply a damage threshold of half your Druid level with a minimum of 1 (don’t drop your weapon because you got scratched!). Baseline for a Druid is that for a single enemy, there is a 47% chance of maintaining a spell base on my spreadsheet. The CON proficiency brings the chances of maintaining concentration to 64% per enemy per round. Adding the damage threshold increases it to 91% per enemy per round. With the damage threshold but no proficiency, the chances become 86% per round per enemy. This gets higher as enemies gain more attacks and more powerful attacks. Also, the analysis ignores criticals.
I play a Level 9 Druid, started at 1, and never had any big problems. I took Resilient (Constitution) and have a +9 Constitution save (with a ring of protection). There is also a paladin in the party often granting me +3 extra. This means that I only start making saves for attacks with more than 20 damage. With the paladin at my side I start making saves for attacks with 26+ damage. It rarely happens. I lost only a couple of spells (maybe 3-5) over my whole career.
So, I ran a simulation with druids of random levels fighting level appropriate creatures. It turns out the DMGs recommendation on damage per round is much higher than most creatures in the MM. The Wizards seem to prefer high HP to high damage. Long story short, the chances of saving seem to be around 80% per enemy per round. It climes to 90%+ with CON save proficiency or the War Caster feat.
Thanks to everyone who contributed to this thread!
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Hello everyone! First off, I want to make it clear that I think concentration is a good mechanic. The only part I have a question about is the part of the rule that makes you roll a save every time you take damage. This seems to me that it would make many or most concentration spell intended for front-line combat useless. Consider Flame Blade, Barkskin, or Shapechange. It also seems like it would cause problems for front-line mages such as the Bladesongs, Warlocks (especially Hexblades), Rangers, Clerics, Paladins, and Druids. This counts double for druids as they are clearly intended for front-line combat their medium armor, shield, and martial weapon proficiencies and Wildshape. Especially since the Druid spell list is something 65% concentration spells, higher than any other list. Anyway, on to the statistics.
By assuming reasonable well optimized characters fighting level appropriate monsters, I calculated the probability of losing concentration for every attack. By assuming monsters gain multi attacks as their CR increases, and using the average damage per round from the DMG CH. 9, I was able to estimate the number of save that would have to be made the the DCs to successfully save against an average attack. However, this does not cover above average rolls, high damage single attacks that couldn't possibly be saved from, or critical hits. The details of my analysis can be found in this spreadsheet: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AovkySnoCJtrgsk8rJnWtFFFezc8Ig.
Anyway, at the low levels, a spell caster has around a 30% chance of losing concentration every round with just a single enemy attacking them. By CR 20, even with a character at level 20, the chance of losing concentration is nearly 100%. Even with War Caster, the odds of keeping a spell active long enough to be worth the spell slot is quite low. It gets even worse at high levels. The Shapechange spell is likely to do little more than burn an action and a 9th level spell slot. It is highly probable that you will lose concentration on the spell before you can ever use any of your new forms abilities.
I have played with some ideas to make these spells a bit more useful. One idea is that only critical attacks can break concentration. Another is that any attack that rolls a 19-20 and any spell save that rolls a 1-2 can break concentration. Another idea is a damage threshold on breaking concentration so you don't lose a spell because of a scratch. The damage threshold could be your character's level. Another idea is to grant proficiency on concentration saves for concentration spells casted on yourself or with a range of "self." The most aggressive of these ideas leads to a probability of losing concentration >5% at low levels and around 80% at high levels. This seems a bit overpowered to me though.
Have I made a mistake in my analysis? Is this not as bit of a deal as it seems? Is the impact on front-line casters less that I think? Has anyone else had an issue with this and found a solution?
I don't think it is as bad as you think it is. 90% of spellcasters will be avoiding most of the damage anyway. And concentration DC is half the damage, so you have to take 22 damage before your fail rate reaches 50% with only 10 CON and no proficiency or feats. It is a shame so few casters have CON save proficiency though.
*The druid has so many concentration spells so they can cast and wildshape.
You make a couple of good points. Most frontline mages (Hexblades, Bladesongs, and Palidens) will not be using concentration spells. That really just leaves the Druid. And yes, the chance of losing concentration appears low at first glance, it’s deceptively high. 5e is built on the principle that dealing and taking damage is more fun than missing or being missed. Most attacks have a 60% (P(H)=0.6) chance of hitting. With 1 CON, you will have a 55% (P(S)=0.55) chance of saving. That leaves a 73% chance of maintaining concentration per attack (P(C) = P(~H) + P(H) * P(S) = 0.4 + 0.6 * 0.55 = .73). At lower levels, it’s a bit higher and at higher levels, it’s a bit lower. However, most creatures have multi-attack. Higher level creatures have 3+ attacks when using multi-attack. This reduces the likely to 53% with 2 attacks (P(C’) = P(C)^2 = 0.73 ^ 2 = 0.53). With 2 enemies, your chances are 28% (P(C)^4) and it only gets worse from there. This doesn’t even consider criticals or high damage attacks.
This is a considerable issue for Druids since they can’t cast a new spell in Wildshape witch is a frontline form. Perhaps the solution is to grant CON save proficiency to Wildshape forms and apply a damage threshold of half your Druid level with a minimum of 1 (don’t drop your weapon because you got scratched!). Baseline for a Druid is that for a single enemy, there is a 47% chance of maintaining a spell base on my spreadsheet. The CON proficiency brings the chances of maintaining concentration to 64% per enemy per round. Adding the damage threshold increases it to 91% per enemy per round. With the damage threshold but no proficiency, the chances become 86% per round per enemy. This gets higher as enemies gain more attacks and more powerful attacks. Also, the analysis ignores criticals.
Thoughts?
I play a Level 9 Druid, started at 1, and never had any big problems. I took Resilient (Constitution) and have a +9 Constitution save (with a ring of protection). There is also a paladin in the party often granting me +3 extra. This means that I only start making saves for attacks with more than 20 damage. With the paladin at my side I start making saves for attacks with 26+ damage. It rarely happens. I lost only a couple of spells (maybe 3-5) over my whole career.
That’s great! How do you think you would have done with a less benevolent DM and non-Paladin ally?
To correct your math from earlier, if you have a +1 on a DC10 save, you have a 60% chance to succeed.
He would still have a +8 to CON saves, so pretty good I'd guess.
I had a level 2 moon druid basically solo a weretiger (damage immunity was ignored) by restraining it with entangle then turned into a brown bear.
So, I ran a simulation with druids of random levels fighting level appropriate creatures. It turns out the DMGs recommendation on damage per round is much higher than most creatures in the MM. The Wizards seem to prefer high HP to high damage. Long story short, the chances of saving seem to be around 80% per enemy per round. It climes to 90%+ with CON save proficiency or the War Caster feat.
Thanks to everyone who contributed to this thread!