Of the 7432 dragons officially invading Europe, 2600 (or less) can shape shift. Now, let's keep in mind that unless they stop being shape shifted, they're just clever humans. They can't do anything. They have no possessions, no credentials, no education (none relevant to modern day Europe).
Frankly, I'm pretty hard pressed to figure anything they can realistically achieve. A clean slate can be an advantage, I guess. They are clever, and they can play the long game - they live for a long time.
On the other hand, we know they're there. There were 7432 blips on the radar, then 2600 disappeared, without becoming confirmed kills. And we have sourcebooks, so we can look up their powers (kidding).
We do know they're around somewhere, and well, we should be able to put 2 and 2 together. No, they're not going to be able to topple anything. And they didn't come here to infiltrate, that's not the question we're answering. It's: Who'd win a fight. They lose a fight. Can they infiltrate and actually destroy Europe from within? Naw. Not with any reasonable chance of succes.
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Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
You're aware countries have been toppled before, I hope. History, our very real past, is rife with examples of countries falling. Like, this is a thing that has happened. Many times.
Really? Please name one country that was toppled without a military-scale invasion of some kind. Dictators can be toppled by individual spies or rogue assassins, but that's not the same as toppling a country, but even then it's extremely rare in the modern era. The CIA tried to assassinate Castro something like a dozen times and all failed.
Of the 7432 dragons officially invading Europe, 2600 (or less) can shape shift. Now, let's keep in mind that unless they stop being shape shifted, they're just clever humans. They can't do anything. They have no possessions, no credentials, no education (none relevant to modern day Europe).
I'm a little hard pressed to understand how we think 2600 super intelligent, wise, and charismatic shapechangers who can at-will look like any person they want to, or even any animal in a pinch... uh how did you put it: "Can't do anything"
The Charisma is the big one. They have superhuman levels of ability to influence people. The most charismatic person to ever live? They're more charismatic than that. And can look like anyone. Be anyone, it isn't just appearance.
Frankly, I'm pretty hard pressed to figure anything they can realistically achieve. A clean slate can be an advantage, I guess. They are clever, and they can play the long game - they live for a long time.
Replace all the wealthiest/influential people in Europe.
It isn't just that they are clever, though they are also that. They can be anyone anywhere and win over anyone. They can use their magic still, too, even while in human/beast shape. Spellcasting is one of the features that Shapechange keeps.
On the other hand, we know they're there. There were 7432 blips on the radar, then 2600 disappeared, without becoming confirmed kills.
That's not really how radar works. Unless they were all blipped into the sky over a military base or airport or something really silly. Radar wouldn't pick up anywhere near all 7k+ appearances throughout Europe on the ground. And people wouldn't have any idea how many showed up or even why. These are not things the OP suggests at all.
We do know they're around somewhere, and well, we should be able to put 2 and 2 together. No, they're not going to be able to topple anything. And they didn't come here to infiltrate, that's not the question we're answering. It's: Who'd win a fight.
That just isn't true. The word "fight" isn't in the title whasoever. It also isn't the only win condition. There is no reason to expect the dragons would just mindlessly swarm the sky like unthinking beasts. They're not unthinking beasts.
They lose a fight. Can they infiltrate and actually destroy Europe from within? Naw. Not with any reasonable chance of succes.
There is no way they couldn't infiltrate. Nothing could stop thousands of super-genius, god-tier charismatic shapechangers from infiltrating any and all governments.
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I'm probably laughing.
It is apparently so hard to program Aberrant Mind and Clockwork Soul spell-swapping into dndbeyond they had to remake the game without it rather than implement it.
On the other hand, we know they're there. There were 7432 blips on the radar, then 2600 disappeared, without becoming confirmed kills.
That's not really how radar works. Unless they were all blipped into the sky over a military base or airport or something really silly. Radar wouldn't pick up anywhere near all 7k+ appearances throughout Europe on the ground. And people wouldn't have any idea how many showed up or even why. These are not things the OP suggests at all.
I’m imagining some poor sod working at an air base just seeing their radar flashbang them with 7,342 dots all of a sudden
Of the 7432 dragons officially invading Europe, 2600 (or less) can shape shift. Now, let's keep in mind that unless they stop being shape shifted, they're just clever humans. They can't do anything. They have no possessions, no credentials, no education (none relevant to modern day Europe).
I'm a little hard pressed to understand how we think 2600 super intelligent, wise, and charismatic shapechangers who can at-will look like any person they want to, or even any animal in a pinch... uh how did you put it: "Can't do anything"
The Charisma is the big one. They have superhuman levels of ability to influence people. The most charismatic person to ever live? They're more charismatic than that. And can look like anyone. Be anyone, it isn't just appearance.
Frankly, I'm pretty hard pressed to figure anything they can realistically achieve. A clean slate can be an advantage, I guess. They are clever, and they can play the long game - they live for a long time.
Replace all the wealthiest/influential people in Europe.
It isn't just that they are clever, though they are also that. They can be anyone anywhere and win over anyone. They can use their magic still, too, even while in human/beast shape. Spellcasting is one of the features that Shapechange keeps.
On the other hand, we know they're there. There were 7432 blips on the radar, then 2600 disappeared, without becoming confirmed kills.
That's not really how radar works. Unless they were all blipped into the sky over a military base or airport or something really silly. Radar wouldn't pick up anywhere near all 7k+ appearances throughout Europe on the ground. And people wouldn't have any idea how many showed up or even why. These are not things the OP suggests at all.
We do know they're around somewhere, and well, we should be able to put 2 and 2 together. No, they're not going to be able to topple anything. And they didn't come here to infiltrate, that's not the question we're answering. It's: Who'd win a fight.
That just isn't true. The word "fight" isn't in the title whasoever. It also isn't the only win condition. There is no reason to expect the dragons would just mindlessly swarm the sky like unthinking beasts. They're not unthinking beasts.
They lose a fight. Can they infiltrate and actually destroy Europe from within? Naw. Not with any reasonable chance of succes.
There is no way they couldn't infiltrate. Nothing could stop thousands of super-genius, god-tier charismatic shapechangers from infiltrating any and all governments.
I'm pretty sure the word creature in shapechange refers to a stat block, not a specific person.
You also say that 2,600 smart and charismatic people could topple a government. I would like to think that we are past the point where someone like hitler can take over half of the world. Additionally, none of the communist spies from certain countries have managed to topple the US so far.
I also find the idea of a politician needing to chant and wave their arms around every hour hysterical. In fact, this whole plan doesn't really work, as shapechange only has a duration of one hour. That means the dragon can't sleep (in game terms, long rest), and would eventually pass out and turn back into a dragon wherever they are. (imagine the headlines!)
You also say that 2,600 smart and charismatic people could topple a government. I would like to think that we are past the point where someone like hitler can take over half of the world. Additionally, none of the communist spies from certain countries have managed to topple the US so far.
Doubtful. Remember dragons have no ID and no information about how our world works. They can't just "replace rich powerful people" because they don't know who those people are, nor where to find them, nor how to mimic them. The White House employs ~2,000 people, Harvard employs 2,400 professors. 2,600 people is not a lot to try to control a democratic country. Maybe the dragons could take over the top few levels of the justice system in a country but it's going to be pretty darn obvious since the dragons will have no idea what any modern laws are.
Hitler didn't take over half the world alone, and he didn't come from nothing. There was years and years of political dysfunction that sowed the seeds that grew into the monster that was the NAZI party which allowed Hitler to take over. No dictator just randomly walks into a happy functioning country and single-handedly topples it. Dictators rise from already dysfunctional systems, so if these dragons want to take over a country they will have to figure out which countries are currently dysfunctional, how power is controlled and wielded in that country, determine who the key individuals are to replace in order to take control, how to effectively mimic them so people don't realize they are fakes and arrest/execute them, and the correct rhetoric and distribution of wealth necessary to maintain control.
Maybe the dragons could take over the Vatican, since they could hide as beggars/homeless while reading the bible and learning about Catholicism then slowly insinuate themselves into the church over several years, killing off older priests and replacing them until they can get invitations to the Vatican then replace all the cardinals, pope, and swiss guards all at once in a coup, since there's probably less than 2000 of them in total. But any democratic country fat chance. The whole point of democracy is spreading out power as much as possible in order to prevent a few corrupt individuals from taking over.
I'm a little hard pressed to understand how we think 2600 super intelligent, wise, and charismatic shapechangers who can at-will look like any person they want to, or even any animal in a pinch... uh how did you put it: "Can't do anything"
The Charisma is the big one. They have superhuman levels of ability to influence people. The most charismatic person to ever live? They're more charismatic than that. And can look like anyone. Be anyone, it isn't just appearance.
Tell you what: If you believe in IQ, I'm a super intelligent, charismatic non-shapechanger, and I'm just some guy with a regular job.
Now, I realise that's a super annoying statement, but as it happens, I've been tested repeatedly, and I score about top 4-5%. Now, I'm not the type to give too much creedence to IQ tests, but as far as stats go, mine are fine. I work in sales - and I'm good at it - for which the only requirement is high charisma.
Now, some things to consider: The most succesful people aren't (generally speaking) the most intelligent. The sweet spot for succes is an IQ of around 115.
Another - and often far more important - element of succes is education. Which the dragons do not have.
All just to say: There are no guarantees. And without a platform, charisma itself means nothing, your maximum reach is that of your voice. Dragons will have to compete with inane internet personalities, and they don't even know the internet exists.
Replace all the wealthiest/influential people in Europe.
It isn't just that they are clever, though they are also that. They can be anyone anywhere and win over anyone. They can use their magic still, too, even while in human/beast shape. Spellcasting is one of the features that Shapechange keeps.
No they can't. You want that to be true, but there is zero reason to feel that way. They can give their position away going around casting spells, but they cannot - in any way, shape or form - win over everyone. They are at a massive, massive disadvantage by not having any network, no knowledge of anything, no money, no education, nothing as simple as identification. They'll have to come up with false names - and while they're clever, naming conventions among humans is another thing they know nothing about.
They are massively, massively disadvantaged.
That's not really how radar works. Unless they were all blipped into the sky over a military base or airport or something really silly. Radar wouldn't pick up anywhere near all 7k+ appearances throughout Europe on the ground. And people wouldn't have any idea how many showed up or even why. These are not things the OP suggests at all.
Here, you're on to something. That's literally not how radar works, we do not have total and constant radar coverage over all of Europe. It was just an image, and not an accurate one.
However, it's not wrong either: If it comes to a real fight, the dragons had better be in the air - where, at least, they're mostly safe from tanks - but if they are, they're visible to radar, and they're all spotted. And all killed. And they won't even know it's happening before it's all over.
That just isn't true. The word "fight" isn't in the title whasoever. It also isn't the only win condition. There is no reason to expect the dragons would just mindlessly swarm the sky like unthinking beasts. They're not unthinking beasts.
There's a reason they're flying. That's so they need to worry about thousands of fighter jets, but can at least somewhat ignore the tens of thousands of tanks and artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, hundreds of thousands of infantry, and so on. Flight is their one advantage. Though not much of one.
And it's Dragons vs Military. That's a fight. I don't really care what other thing you feel it is. The military fights. It isn't there for much else.
There is no way they couldn't infiltrate. Nothing could stop thousands of super-genius, god-tier charismatic shapechangers from infiltrating any and all governments.
There's every way.
They have only one advantage - shape shifting. Which isn't insignificant. But do you have any idea of how insertion works? Do you think you just show up looking like Secret Base Employee Alpha, and then that's it? You need a network. I know you think that with their high charisma, the world will all but grovel at their feet - but that's simply not true. Taylor Swift is loved by half the world, and has charisma off the charts - but the other half of the world hates her. Charisma simply does not do the thing you seem to think it does.
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Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
There is no way they couldn't infiltrate. Nothing could stop thousands of super-genius, god-tier charismatic shapechangers from infiltrating any and all governments.
LOL, why haven't the super geniuses with high charisma at Harvard infiltrated the government and taken over the US? They even have a network of former students they could exploit to get a foot in the door.
Intelligence is NOT rewarded in our society. Money (which the dragons have none of), reputation (which the dragons have none of), and knowledge of the unspoken rules of authority (which the dragons have none of) is what puts a person into power. There are plenty of dirt-poor super geniuses and god-tier charismatic people because they were born poor, never had the opportunity to go to an elite university and make friends with the sons and daughters of the aristocracy, had no one whispering in the ear of the already powerful to get them an interview at a prestigious institution, and had no one to teach them the correct way to eat a 5 course meal, dress for a formal occasion, shake someone's hand or speak with the correct intonation and pronunciation to project an air of wealth and prestige.
An uber charismatic dragon could maybe steal a computer and make it as a Youtube personality if they had any clue what a computer was, what the internet was, and what youtube is, or what an "influencer" is. But honestly, their super intelligence would probably be a detriment to that.
I’m back to this post, god what the hell have I done?
Anyways, call me a crackpot conspiracy theorist, but I think Europeans need food, like what else could those wheat fields be used for, aliens? Yea I’m pretty sure if dragons manage to form a semi decent plan that isn’t ramming into the massive screaming hunk of metal in the sky, they could just, destroy all the food, like, nothings stopping them other than at most a couple people with guns?
Eat all the food you can, vomit some elemental whatever, leave with some more lead in your body than you would like and watch as all the food starts burning like mad. You may say “oh but we have so much more productions of food, they won’t be able to destroy Europe by attacking just a few”, yea a you got a point, but the people who rely on such sites for food are going to have a lot to deal with, planning the production and exportation of food is difficult work, especially if multiple sites just lose all their crops.
The military can’t do squat to help other than station their men or fighter jets around said sites, but they better have no explosives or else they just did the job for the dragon themselves, because of local food sites being crippled, the military would have multiple stuff to distract them from dragon hunting, which gives dragons some breathing room to plan other stuff.
yea a you got a point, but the people who rely on such sites for food are going to have a lot to deal with, planning the production and exportation of food is difficult work, especially if multiple sites just lose all their crops.
Except no it isn't. Not if you are a wealthy country. Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe and it's fields are very much under attack right now, and what? there's been maybe a 10 cent increase in the price of bread. Or consider the mass-slaughter of chickens in the US a few months ago to stop avian flu, it raised the price of eggs for what? a couple of weeks. An ancient dragon's breath weapon doesn't even destroy one field, their lair barely takes out 1 farm. How are they going to create any noticable difference in food availability?
yea a you got a point, but the people who rely on such sites for food are going to have a lot to deal with, planning the production and exportation of food is difficult work, especially if multiple sites just lose all their crops.
Except no it isn't. Not if you are a wealthy country. Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe and it's fields are very much under attack right now, and what? there's been maybe a 10 cent increase in the price of bread. Or consider the mass-slaughter of chickens in the US a few months ago to stop avian flu, it raised the price of eggs for what? a couple of weeks. An ancient dragon's breath weapon doesn't even destroy one field, their lair barely takes out 1 farm. How are they going to create any noticable difference in food availability?
Well I didn’t say it’s gonna cause a societal collapse, but it’s gonna be a pain for the people to try and secure their fields when a couple dragons raid the farms and just mess everything up.
Also it’s still difficult work, rich or not there’s a lot of management to be had in order to secure food produce, it’s not like the war isn’t a pain to everyone, with practically millions of people having food security issues. Right before the war Ukraine exported 1 million tonnes of food, when it started it dropped so hard it was around 100 - 200k only, while both of us might not be experts in chain and supply, the increase in food price is because in the background companies are forced to communicate and handle sudden stops in imports.
Grain is also very flammable if you don’t know, the dragon doesn’t need to stay for long, Reds, Brass, Blues and Golds could do one well aimed blast and start a massive chain reaction and make a large portion of land unusable for weeks, doesn’t matter how advanced we are, one fell lose of massive fields is still a big loss.
Well I didn’t say it’s gonna cause a societal collapse, but it’s gonna be a pain for the people to try and secure their fields when a couple dragons raid the farms and just mess everything up.....
...
In the war between Europe and Dragons, the dragons for sure WILL be a pain for thousands of people (likely much more). But there's many millions in Europe - dragons won't win.
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I know what you're thinking: "In that flurry of blows, did he use all his ki points, or save one?" Well, are ya feeling lucky, punk?
I’m back to this post, god what the hell have I done?
Anyways, call me a crackpot conspiracy theorist, but I think Europeans need food, like what else could those wheat fields be used for, aliens? Yea I’m pretty sure if dragons manage to form a semi decent plan that isn’t ramming into the massive screaming hunk of metal in the sky, they could just, destroy all the food, like, nothings stopping them other than at most a couple people with guns?
Eat all the food you can, vomit some elemental whatever, leave with some more lead in your body than you would like and watch as all the food starts burning like mad. You may say “oh but we have so much more productions of food, they won’t be able to destroy Europe by attacking just a few”, yea a you got a point, but the people who rely on such sites for food are going to have a lot to deal with, planning the production and exportation of food is difficult work, especially if multiple sites just lose all their crops.
The military can’t do squat to help other than station their men or fighter jets around said sites, but they better have no explosives or else they just did the job for the dragon themselves, because of local food sites being crippled, the military would have multiple stuff to distract them from dragon hunting, which gives dragons some breathing room to plan other stuff.
How are they going to destroy all the food? Dragons in dragonform are toast. Too big to hide, easily visible on radar if they ever try to fly anywhere, killable from up to 120 km away.
I just checked - for fun - how many uses of dragon breath it would take to destroy all of Europe's farmland. 19,4 billion times. That's going to be awhile. And as soon as they start, the jets come screaming in.
There's no breathing room. As soon as anything happens, there's no higher priority than to eliminate the giant, existential, dragonshaped threat to human existance in Europe.
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Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
Not when it's a well watered still-growing plant, it isn't. Which is precisely what you get on farms aside from a few weeks during harvest time. There is a reason forest fires only happen in one season and in certain areas - you need a combination of drought, organic-volatile producing plants (i.e. plants where the leaves themselves smells strongly - pines & eucalyptus) to get a forest fire. Otherwise fires are rapidly and easily contained, fire fighters can reach even farms in minutes rather than hours because farms are connected to roads and have water supplies nearby - much easier to fight than a forest fire. Not to mention farmers themselves have irrigation equipment for their farms which can easily be used to contain and control if not outright extinguish a fire.
A few dragons could be annoying for a little while, but they are still just big flying lizards, they are WAY slower than an farmer in a pick up truck, or a firefighting truck, or a police vehicle. A dozen armed police or park rangers could probably kill a dragon, and with everyone and their granny having a cell-phone a dragon will maybe be able to burn a half dozen fields before having to flee or get killed and even if they flee, a police or military helicopter will be able to catch up to them pretty easily.
A single military helicopter or plane is easily able to kill a dragon, such a vehicle could pretty easily patrol and entire farming town, and it would take weeks to months for a dragon to get somewhere else because they are so incredibly slow compared to modern transportation systems.
But that's beside the point really "being annoying to a few dozen farmers" is a far cry from "conquering europe". It is also way beyond the scope of your original question which was dragons vs the military, not dragons vs farmers and rural emergency services.
Also it’s still difficult work, rich or not there’s a lot of management to be had in order to secure food produce, it’s not like the war isn’t a pain to everyone, with practically millions of people having food security issues.
LOL, globally ~300 million have food security issues, the worst of that is in Gaza which has 300,000 soldiers and huge amounts of military equipment deployed to it's tiny super-densely populated area (and no capacity to defend itself), and accounts for 2.5 million of the global total. 7000 dragons doing a few raids is nothing compared to that. Russia similarly has 700,000 troops deployed in Ukraine 100x more than there are dragons plus tons of relatively modern military equipment.
But Globally billions of tons of food are also wasted, food insecurity is not driven by lack of production. It is driven by poor distribution. Dragons attacking farms aren't doing anything to disrupt distribution so will not cause food insecurity. Dragons would have to capture ports, and destroy train lines, bridges, and highways to create any kind of food supply crisis. Capturing even a single port will be impossible, those areas have security personnel present all the time, are incredibly easy to get to, and are easily defensible. A single soldier with a machine gun atop the communications tower of a cargo ship will be able to snipe any dragon that attacks out of the sky long before the dragon can attack.
The TL:DR of it, is that dragons can't do anything that modern people aren't already doing to each other. The only difference is they are slower, weaker, have exceedingly short range, minimal to no communication, and no information, resources, or expertise compared to even WW2 era militaries.
But Globally billions of tons of food are also wasted, food insecurity is not driven by lack of production. It is driven by poor distribution. Dragons attacking farms aren't doing anything to disrupt distribution so will not cause food insecurity. Dragons would have to capture ports, and destroy train lines, bridges, and highways to create any kind of food supply crisis. Capturing even a single port will be impossible, those areas have security personnel present all the time, are incredibly easy to get to, and are easily defensible. A single soldier with a machine gun atop the communications tower of a cargo ship will be able to snipe any dragon that attacks out of the sky long before the dragon can attack.
I feel like attacking production is another way to affect distribution, just saying.
Also there’s gotta be one dragon obscene enough to engineer a curse that can spread through contact, maybe a modified version of the Contagion spell on a heavy civilian population, or even better, have a green dragon just cover himself with body parts already infected with the curse and just start spreading it through fights.
All the spells we have in D&D are only those we have managed to record, with there being canonically thousands of spells left undiscovered or used by a very select few, someone's gotta have a spell to permanently destroy a land's ability to bare food.
Also I’ll argue a dragon (other than a young one, those are dying) who attacks with lightning can snipe as well, you can’t say a machine gun is gonna insta kill a dragon because it’s an animal, because that’s the equivalent of saying a machine gun can destroy a tank because it’s being controlled by humans, who are very machinegun-able. Besides, they don’t even need to fight near a train station in the first place, just bite off a few rails far away until it delays by a few hours, which if you compound them enough along with train raids, is gonna be significant problem for Europe. Highways can be obstructed for hours on end by a single oddly angled truck and supply ships are made to defend against pirates, not elephant sized monsters who could possibly bust the hull or motors.
Also there’s gotta be one dragon obscene enough to engineer a curse that can spread through contact, maybe a modified version of the Contagion spell on a heavy civilian population, or even better, have a green dragon just cover himself with body parts already infected with the curse and just start spreading it through fights.
1) now you are just making up abilities for the dragons and for magic and for curses. Which is essentially admitting you have lost the argument.
2) we already have deadly things that spread person to person, those are called diseases and we have tones and tones of systems to deal with them. No curse will be worse than Ebola and Ebola is eminently controllable aside from incredibly poor, rural areas.
3) it doesn't matter what is on the dragon, the dragon is never coming in physical contact with a human being. A human will either escape in a car, or kill it with a gun long before physical contact can occur.
you can’t say a machine gun is gonna insta kill a dragon because it’s an animal, because that’s the equivalent of saying a machine gun can destroy a tank because it’s being controlled by humans, who are very machinegun-able.
No it isn't. It is saying a creature that can be harmed by a thrown dagger or a crossbow can equally be harmed by a fricken machine gun. A dagger or crossbow doesn't do squat against an airplane, yet a machine gun can shoot an airplane out of the sky. Ergo, a machine gun can absolutely kill a dragon with ease.
not elephant sized monsters who could possibly bust the hull or motors.
LOL, the motors/engines of modern day cargo ships are bigger than even an ancient dragon and are located deep within the hull of the ship where there isn't space for a dragon to fit. The propeller of a cargo ship is 30 ft in diameter and spinning at 80-1000 RPM - that propeller is probably going to kill the dragon not the other way round. And again, machine gun kills dragon from >1000 feet, how is the dragon going to even touch the ship?
Also there’s gotta be one dragon obscene enough to engineer a curse that can spread through contact, maybe a modified version of the Contagion spell on a heavy civilian population, or even better, have a green dragon just cover himself with body parts already infected with the curse and just start spreading it through fights.
1) now you are just making up abilities for the dragons and for magic and for curses. Which is essentially admitting you have lost the argument.
....
This is the crux of the argument. As written, dragons will lose the supposed battle pretty badly. If somebody makes up abilities and makes broad assumptions about things dragons can do, then sure, but at that point why have the debate? You can't make up fictional abilities to support your cause and call them facts.
There's no way you can say "what if one particularly powerful dragon had a breath weapon that killed everyone in Europe?". That's essentially what's happening when OP suggests that dragons can win through one 'strategy' or another.
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I know what you're thinking: "In that flurry of blows, did he use all his ki points, or save one?" Well, are ya feeling lucky, punk?
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Of the 7432 dragons officially invading Europe, 2600 (or less) can shape shift. Now, let's keep in mind that unless they stop being shape shifted, they're just clever humans. They can't do anything. They have no possessions, no credentials, no education (none relevant to modern day Europe).
Frankly, I'm pretty hard pressed to figure anything they can realistically achieve. A clean slate can be an advantage, I guess. They are clever, and they can play the long game - they live for a long time.
On the other hand, we know they're there. There were 7432 blips on the radar, then 2600 disappeared, without becoming confirmed kills. And we have sourcebooks, so we can look up their powers (kidding).
We do know they're around somewhere, and well, we should be able to put 2 and 2 together. No, they're not going to be able to topple anything. And they didn't come here to infiltrate, that's not the question we're answering. It's: Who'd win a fight. They lose a fight. Can they infiltrate and actually destroy Europe from within? Naw. Not with any reasonable chance of succes.
Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
Really? Please name one country that was toppled without a military-scale invasion of some kind. Dictators can be toppled by individual spies or rogue assassins, but that's not the same as toppling a country, but even then it's extremely rare in the modern era. The CIA tried to assassinate Castro something like a dozen times and all failed.
I'm a little hard pressed to understand how we think 2600 super intelligent, wise, and charismatic shapechangers who can at-will look like any person they want to, or even any animal in a pinch... uh how did you put it: "Can't do anything"
The Charisma is the big one. They have superhuman levels of ability to influence people. The most charismatic person to ever live? They're more charismatic than that. And can look like anyone. Be anyone, it isn't just appearance.
Replace all the wealthiest/influential people in Europe.
It isn't just that they are clever, though they are also that. They can be anyone anywhere and win over anyone. They can use their magic still, too, even while in human/beast shape. Spellcasting is one of the features that Shapechange keeps.
That's not really how radar works. Unless they were all blipped into the sky over a military base or airport or something really silly. Radar wouldn't pick up anywhere near all 7k+ appearances throughout Europe on the ground. And people wouldn't have any idea how many showed up or even why. These are not things the OP suggests at all.
That just isn't true. The word "fight" isn't in the title whasoever. It also isn't the only win condition. There is no reason to expect the dragons would just mindlessly swarm the sky like unthinking beasts. They're not unthinking beasts.
There is no way they couldn't infiltrate. Nothing could stop thousands of super-genius, god-tier charismatic shapechangers from infiltrating any and all governments.
I'm probably laughing.
It is apparently so hard to program Aberrant Mind and Clockwork Soul spell-swapping into dndbeyond they had to remake the game without it rather than implement it.
I’m imagining some poor sod working at an air base just seeing their radar flashbang them with 7,342 dots all of a sudden
I'm pretty sure the word creature in shapechange refers to a stat block, not a specific person.
You also say that 2,600 smart and charismatic people could topple a government. I would like to think that we are past the point where someone like hitler can take over half of the world. Additionally, none of the communist spies from certain countries have managed to topple the US so far.
I also find the idea of a politician needing to chant and wave their arms around every hour hysterical. In fact, this whole plan doesn't really work, as shapechange only has a duration of one hour. That means the dragon can't sleep (in game terms, long rest), and would eventually pass out and turn back into a dragon wherever they are. (imagine the headlines!)
Doubtful. Remember dragons have no ID and no information about how our world works. They can't just "replace rich powerful people" because they don't know who those people are, nor where to find them, nor how to mimic them. The White House employs ~2,000 people, Harvard employs 2,400 professors. 2,600 people is not a lot to try to control a democratic country. Maybe the dragons could take over the top few levels of the justice system in a country but it's going to be pretty darn obvious since the dragons will have no idea what any modern laws are.
Hitler didn't take over half the world alone, and he didn't come from nothing. There was years and years of political dysfunction that sowed the seeds that grew into the monster that was the NAZI party which allowed Hitler to take over. No dictator just randomly walks into a happy functioning country and single-handedly topples it. Dictators rise from already dysfunctional systems, so if these dragons want to take over a country they will have to figure out which countries are currently dysfunctional, how power is controlled and wielded in that country, determine who the key individuals are to replace in order to take control, how to effectively mimic them so people don't realize they are fakes and arrest/execute them, and the correct rhetoric and distribution of wealth necessary to maintain control.
Maybe the dragons could take over the Vatican, since they could hide as beggars/homeless while reading the bible and learning about Catholicism then slowly insinuate themselves into the church over several years, killing off older priests and replacing them until they can get invitations to the Vatican then replace all the cardinals, pope, and swiss guards all at once in a coup, since there's probably less than 2000 of them in total. But any democratic country fat chance. The whole point of democracy is spreading out power as much as possible in order to prevent a few corrupt individuals from taking over.
Tell you what: If you believe in IQ, I'm a super intelligent, charismatic non-shapechanger, and I'm just some guy with a regular job.
Now, I realise that's a super annoying statement, but as it happens, I've been tested repeatedly, and I score about top 4-5%. Now, I'm not the type to give too much creedence to IQ tests, but as far as stats go, mine are fine. I work in sales - and I'm good at it - for which the only requirement is high charisma.
Now, some things to consider: The most succesful people aren't (generally speaking) the most intelligent. The sweet spot for succes is an IQ of around 115.
Another - and often far more important - element of succes is education. Which the dragons do not have.
All just to say: There are no guarantees. And without a platform, charisma itself means nothing, your maximum reach is that of your voice. Dragons will have to compete with inane internet personalities, and they don't even know the internet exists.
No they can't. You want that to be true, but there is zero reason to feel that way. They can give their position away going around casting spells, but they cannot - in any way, shape or form - win over everyone. They are at a massive, massive disadvantage by not having any network, no knowledge of anything, no money, no education, nothing as simple as identification. They'll have to come up with false names - and while they're clever, naming conventions among humans is another thing they know nothing about.
They are massively, massively disadvantaged.
Here, you're on to something. That's literally not how radar works, we do not have total and constant radar coverage over all of Europe. It was just an image, and not an accurate one.
However, it's not wrong either: If it comes to a real fight, the dragons had better be in the air - where, at least, they're mostly safe from tanks - but if they are, they're visible to radar, and they're all spotted. And all killed. And they won't even know it's happening before it's all over.
There's a reason they're flying. That's so they need to worry about thousands of fighter jets, but can at least somewhat ignore the tens of thousands of tanks and artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, hundreds of thousands of infantry, and so on. Flight is their one advantage. Though not much of one.
And it's Dragons vs Military. That's a fight. I don't really care what other thing you feel it is. The military fights. It isn't there for much else.
There's every way.
They have only one advantage - shape shifting. Which isn't insignificant. But do you have any idea of how insertion works? Do you think you just show up looking like Secret Base Employee Alpha, and then that's it? You need a network. I know you think that with their high charisma, the world will all but grovel at their feet - but that's simply not true. Taylor Swift is loved by half the world, and has charisma off the charts - but the other half of the world hates her. Charisma simply does not do the thing you seem to think it does.
Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
LOL, why haven't the super geniuses with high charisma at Harvard infiltrated the government and taken over the US? They even have a network of former students they could exploit to get a foot in the door.
Intelligence is NOT rewarded in our society. Money (which the dragons have none of), reputation (which the dragons have none of), and knowledge of the unspoken rules of authority (which the dragons have none of) is what puts a person into power. There are plenty of dirt-poor super geniuses and god-tier charismatic people because they were born poor, never had the opportunity to go to an elite university and make friends with the sons and daughters of the aristocracy, had no one whispering in the ear of the already powerful to get them an interview at a prestigious institution, and had no one to teach them the correct way to eat a 5 course meal, dress for a formal occasion, shake someone's hand or speak with the correct intonation and pronunciation to project an air of wealth and prestige.
An uber charismatic dragon could maybe steal a computer and make it as a Youtube personality if they had any clue what a computer was, what the internet was, and what youtube is, or what an "influencer" is. But honestly, their super intelligence would probably be a detriment to that.
I’m back to this post, god what the hell have I done?
Anyways, call me a crackpot conspiracy theorist, but I think Europeans need food, like what else could those wheat fields be used for, aliens? Yea I’m pretty sure if dragons manage to form a semi decent plan that isn’t ramming into the massive screaming hunk of metal in the sky, they could just, destroy all the food, like, nothings stopping them other than at most a couple people with guns?
Eat all the food you can, vomit some elemental whatever, leave with some more lead in your body than you would like and watch as all the food starts burning like mad. You may say “oh but we have so much more productions of food, they won’t be able to destroy Europe by attacking just a few”, yea a you got a point, but the people who rely on such sites for food are going to have a lot to deal with, planning the production and exportation of food is difficult work, especially if multiple sites just lose all their crops.
The military can’t do squat to help other than station their men or fighter jets around said sites, but they better have no explosives or else they just did the job for the dragon themselves, because of local food sites being crippled, the military would have multiple stuff to distract them from dragon hunting, which gives dragons some breathing room to plan other stuff.
Except no it isn't. Not if you are a wealthy country. Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe and it's fields are very much under attack right now, and what? there's been maybe a 10 cent increase in the price of bread. Or consider the mass-slaughter of chickens in the US a few months ago to stop avian flu, it raised the price of eggs for what? a couple of weeks. An ancient dragon's breath weapon doesn't even destroy one field, their lair barely takes out 1 farm. How are they going to create any noticable difference in food availability?
Well I didn’t say it’s gonna cause a societal collapse, but it’s gonna be a pain for the people to try and secure their fields when a couple dragons raid the farms and just mess everything up.
Also it’s still difficult work, rich or not there’s a lot of management to be had in order to secure food produce, it’s not like the war isn’t a pain to everyone, with practically millions of people having food security issues. Right before the war Ukraine exported 1 million tonnes of food, when it started it dropped so hard it was around 100 - 200k only, while both of us might not be experts in chain and supply, the increase in food price is because in the background companies are forced to communicate and handle sudden stops in imports.
Grain is also very flammable if you don’t know, the dragon doesn’t need to stay for long, Reds, Brass, Blues and Golds could do one well aimed blast and start a massive chain reaction and make a large portion of land unusable for weeks, doesn’t matter how advanced we are, one fell lose of massive fields is still a big loss.
In the war between Europe and Dragons, the dragons for sure WILL be a pain for thousands of people (likely much more). But there's many millions in Europe - dragons won't win.
I know what you're thinking: "In that flurry of blows, did he use all his ki points, or save one?" Well, are ya feeling lucky, punk?
How are they going to destroy all the food? Dragons in dragonform are toast. Too big to hide, easily visible on radar if they ever try to fly anywhere, killable from up to 120 km away.
I just checked - for fun - how many uses of dragon breath it would take to destroy all of Europe's farmland. 19,4 billion times. That's going to be awhile. And as soon as they start, the jets come screaming in.
There's no breathing room. As soon as anything happens, there's no higher priority than to eliminate the giant, existential, dragonshaped threat to human existance in Europe.
Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
Not when it's a well watered still-growing plant, it isn't. Which is precisely what you get on farms aside from a few weeks during harvest time. There is a reason forest fires only happen in one season and in certain areas - you need a combination of drought, organic-volatile producing plants (i.e. plants where the leaves themselves smells strongly - pines & eucalyptus) to get a forest fire. Otherwise fires are rapidly and easily contained, fire fighters can reach even farms in minutes rather than hours because farms are connected to roads and have water supplies nearby - much easier to fight than a forest fire. Not to mention farmers themselves have irrigation equipment for their farms which can easily be used to contain and control if not outright extinguish a fire.
A few dragons could be annoying for a little while, but they are still just big flying lizards, they are WAY slower than an farmer in a pick up truck, or a firefighting truck, or a police vehicle. A dozen armed police or park rangers could probably kill a dragon, and with everyone and their granny having a cell-phone a dragon will maybe be able to burn a half dozen fields before having to flee or get killed and even if they flee, a police or military helicopter will be able to catch up to them pretty easily.
A single military helicopter or plane is easily able to kill a dragon, such a vehicle could pretty easily patrol and entire farming town, and it would take weeks to months for a dragon to get somewhere else because they are so incredibly slow compared to modern transportation systems.
But that's beside the point really "being annoying to a few dozen farmers" is a far cry from "conquering europe". It is also way beyond the scope of your original question which was dragons vs the military, not dragons vs farmers and rural emergency services.
LOL so even if 7000 dragons continuously used their breath weapon 24-7 it would take them 1.5 YEARS to destroy all of europe's farm land.
LOL, globally ~300 million have food security issues, the worst of that is in Gaza which has 300,000 soldiers and huge amounts of military equipment deployed to it's tiny super-densely populated area (and no capacity to defend itself), and accounts for 2.5 million of the global total. 7000 dragons doing a few raids is nothing compared to that. Russia similarly has 700,000 troops deployed in Ukraine 100x more than there are dragons plus tons of relatively modern military equipment.
But Globally billions of tons of food are also wasted, food insecurity is not driven by lack of production. It is driven by poor distribution. Dragons attacking farms aren't doing anything to disrupt distribution so will not cause food insecurity. Dragons would have to capture ports, and destroy train lines, bridges, and highways to create any kind of food supply crisis. Capturing even a single port will be impossible, those areas have security personnel present all the time, are incredibly easy to get to, and are easily defensible. A single soldier with a machine gun atop the communications tower of a cargo ship will be able to snipe any dragon that attacks out of the sky long before the dragon can attack.
The TL:DR of it, is that dragons can't do anything that modern people aren't already doing to each other. The only difference is they are slower, weaker, have exceedingly short range, minimal to no communication, and no information, resources, or expertise compared to even WW2 era militaries.
I feel like attacking production is another way to affect distribution, just saying.
Also there’s gotta be one dragon obscene enough to engineer a curse that can spread through contact, maybe a modified version of the Contagion spell on a heavy civilian population, or even better, have a green dragon just cover himself with body parts already infected with the curse and just start spreading it through fights.
All the spells we have in D&D are only those we have managed to record, with there being canonically thousands of spells left undiscovered or used by a very select few, someone's gotta have a spell to permanently destroy a land's ability to bare food.
Also I’ll argue a dragon (other than a young one, those are dying) who attacks with lightning can snipe as well, you can’t say a machine gun is gonna insta kill a dragon because it’s an animal, because that’s the equivalent of saying a machine gun can destroy a tank because it’s being controlled by humans, who are very machinegun-able. Besides, they don’t even need to fight near a train station in the first place, just bite off a few rails far away until it delays by a few hours, which if you compound them enough along with train raids, is gonna be significant problem for Europe. Highways can be obstructed for hours on end by a single oddly angled truck and supply ships are made to defend against pirates, not elephant sized monsters who could possibly bust the hull or motors.
1) now you are just making up abilities for the dragons and for magic and for curses. Which is essentially admitting you have lost the argument.
2) we already have deadly things that spread person to person, those are called diseases and we have tones and tones of systems to deal with them. No curse will be worse than Ebola and Ebola is eminently controllable aside from incredibly poor, rural areas.
3) it doesn't matter what is on the dragon, the dragon is never coming in physical contact with a human being. A human will either escape in a car, or kill it with a gun long before physical contact can occur.
No it isn't. It is saying a creature that can be harmed by a thrown dagger or a crossbow can equally be harmed by a fricken machine gun. A dagger or crossbow doesn't do squat against an airplane, yet a machine gun can shoot an airplane out of the sky. Ergo, a machine gun can absolutely kill a dragon with ease.
LOL, the motors/engines of modern day cargo ships are bigger than even an ancient dragon and are located deep within the hull of the ship where there isn't space for a dragon to fit. The propeller of a cargo ship is 30 ft in diameter and spinning at 80-1000 RPM - that propeller is probably going to kill the dragon not the other way round. And again, machine gun kills dragon from >1000 feet, how is the dragon going to even touch the ship?
This is the crux of the argument. As written, dragons will lose the supposed battle pretty badly. If somebody makes up abilities and makes broad assumptions about things dragons can do, then sure, but at that point why have the debate? You can't make up fictional abilities to support your cause and call them facts.
There's no way you can say "what if one particularly powerful dragon had a breath weapon that killed everyone in Europe?". That's essentially what's happening when OP suggests that dragons can win through one 'strategy' or another.
I know what you're thinking: "In that flurry of blows, did he use all his ki points, or save one?" Well, are ya feeling lucky, punk?