A pair of 12's

You spend a while searching but don't manage to find the talking horse (which is fortunate as the persuasion was also not quite a pass). I will accept another roll for both from anyone for the afternoon searching.

One thing of interest in the morning though, a white cat comes up to Toser and in a melodious male voice says “Interested in joining the Emerald Enclave? Come meet us at Phaulkonmere in the Southern Ward.” before it dashes away.

(( Sterling has decent bonuses, he'll give it a shot. Investigation: 13, Persuasion: 23 ))

(( Also, do the rest of us hear the cat talking to Toser? ))

Yes. And a dc13 arcana check to know it was probably the animal messenger spell based on how it reacted after delivering it.

And in the attention, you do manage to find the talking horse, and you do convince them you are harpers. I will give some proper horse RP (if you choose to talk further to it) when I'm not about to sleep, but to summarise so that those of you in other timezones can discuss and plan while I sleep, the horse recalls giving a lift to two possible Zhents to the Yawning Portal, and the descriptions do match Yagra and Davril (for the two of you who met Davril) 

After we're out of earshot of the talking horse, Wagner speaks up. "I'm not fond of the idea of prioritizing the Zhent mission over the Harpers, but we need cash bad. Maybe we find the killer first, then collect on it, then mention Yagra and Davril to the Harpers? Wer're playing with fire a little bit."

Oriace listens to Wagner's concerns, then responds thoughtfully, keeping his voice low. "I get where you're coming from, Wagner, but I don’t feel comfortable exposing the two (that he knows are described match Yagra and Davil). What exactly have they done wrong? The horse may think they’re Zhentarim, but how can it know for sure? And even if they are, how does it know they’re the 'evil' kind? Not all Zhents are cut from the same cloth, and I’m not about to set the Harpers on someone's trail just because of a guess or a bad reputation."

He pauses, looking around to ensure they're still alone. "If the Harpers are about justice and doing good, they’d want to be certain they're going after the right people. Are we really going to drag them into something based on the opinion of a talking horse? I don’t think that's how we should operate. Yagra and Davil might actually be trying to help the city—trying to build something legitimate. And we’d be wrecking their chances without even knowing the truth."

Oriace straightens, a more resolute tone creeping into his voice. "On the other hand, our target in the Dock Ward is a murderer. That’s clear. Someone’s out there killing innocent elves, and stopping that—well, that's something tangible. Something good. We’re not just pointing fingers; we’re actually doing something to protect people. And, sure, there’s money involved, but at least we know this is a task that actually makes a difference, and shouldn't we give Yagra and Davil the benefit of doubt for actually actively trying to stop a murderer?" He looks at Wagner. "Let’s focus on what we know for sure is wrong, not what might be."

“I’m all confused about who’s right and who’s wrong. Maybe we should ask the City Watch about the character of those that were murdered. Maybe they were upstanding folk. Maybe they were villains. At this point, I’m second guessing our presuppositions.”

Mana scratches the top of his bald head and thinks.

”I trust the character of the Harpers, though I’m less confident in the testimony of a speculating horse. Maxeene was nice and all and she wouldn’t confide in talking with us until she verified we were with them. So that’s a point in her favor.

The Zhentarim, on the other hand, have a different reputation. How long can a faction that’s split remain intact? Why would the splinter continue to use the same name and resources? Maybe they’re having us hunt down a vigilante who’s actually cleaning up the Dock Ward in less than legal ways. Even leaving a gruesome calling card as a warning, maybe not to elvenkind but to the zhent themselves.

I’m just saying.

Look, I trust you all with my life, so I’ll go along with your decisions up to the point you would have me do something against my nature. We’re not really close to that, but I wanted you all to know my reservations at this point.”

For reference, Maxeene suspected them based on conversation. They (Davril and Yagra) talked about hiring spies to root out Xanathar Guild hideouts in the city. If that impacts any decisions at all. 

Toser almost laughs out loud.  "Well clearly whatever Maxeene thought was correct, those she suspected to be Zhent agents were, in fact, Zhents.  I think I've made my position clear, but if not, then I'll make it clear again. I don't trust the Zhents, no matter what lines they gave you about trying to help.  I have no loyalty to them whatsoever.  I do have loyalty to you and to the Harpers. You can take that as you will."

Toser's interest is certainly piqued when the cat approached him. He mulled the words over and considered the request but said nothing more to the others at the moment.

"I feel you both. Believe me, I’m loyal to you all first and foremost, and I don’t want to lead us into something that would betray our values. My loyalty to the Harpers is real, but so is my loyalty to the people of Waterdeep—every person, no matter who they are or what faction they belong to, deserves to be judged by their own actions, not by the reputation of others. The city’s too complex for us to see everything in black and white."

He shifts his weight, his gaze moving between Mana and Toser. "Look, just because Yagra and Davil are part of the Zhentarim, which isn't actually that clear as they refer to themselves differently but the name Zhentarim gets painted all over them all the same by all kind of people and talking horses, no less. And additionally it doesn’t even mean they’re guilty of something. And just because they have that name attached to them, which I might note they seem unable to shed, that stirs up bad memories doesn’t mean they’re up to no good. I won’t condemn someone on a suspicion. We haven’t seen anything from them yet that proves they’re the enemy. If they start acting like it, then fine—we’ll deal with it. But until then, I’d rather keep our focus on stopping this murderer than turning on people who may actually be trying to help."

Oriace pauses to gather his thoughts, then speaks with more certainty. "At the end of the day, my loyalty isn’t just some hard line drawn in the sand. It’s about trust, and right now, that trust lies with you. I’ll never ask any of you to do something that would go against your nature. My loyalties are nuanced, not black and white, and I know that we’ll make the right choice together. But let’s start by doing what we know is right—stopping these murders. We can worry about sorting out the factions later, murdering people in the dark of the night, no matter the motive, doesn't sit right with me."

Mana barely had time to nod at Toser’s addition, when he got caught up in Oriace’s argument. He found himself nodding along with him as well, to the point that he glanced both ways to see who might think him daft for his incessanad shaking.

"Agreed.  Let's see what we can do to stop the murders.  I said I'll help and I'll stick with it.  I'd like to get some rest if we are going to spend another night looking."

He ponders for a brief moment.

"I think I'll go see what the Emerald Enclave wants as well.  At minimum it will be another opportunity to make some money if they are offering dragons like the other factions are.  But not today, that will be another day."

Sterling listened to the arguments, then finally spoke up. "I've no loyalty to Yagra and Davil. I'm not going to toss them into the fire, but as far as I know, at worst the Harpers would just harass them. And if they actually turn out to be Zhents, then the Harpers can decide what to do based on that. Presumably legally. But if we're going to do our job at all, we need to report Maxeene's suspicions, otherwise what's the point? I'm not much for cloak-and-dagger stuff, but I'll at least help convey info to the group I've joined."

He thought aother moment. "That said, stopping a murderer is still significant. I can't help but think even the Harpers would want that done--even if he's a vigilante. And if they don't like it, simply because the murderer was murdering Zhents, that'll speak volumes. So, yeah... let's find us that killer."

So to clarify I have understood this correctly. You are not telling the Harpers anything (yet). You will try again tonight for the dock murderer, and will check out Emerald Enclave another day.

If that is right, we can jump ahead to nightfall and the murder hunt, (and if you have anything you want to do individually for a couple of hours first just say). You do have time for a long rest without getting exhausted following the previous night.

(( That sounds about right to me. The only other thing Sterling will do before taking the long rest and then eating & getting ready for the next night is to have Jasper stay at the manor and keep an eye out for the strange occurances. ))

Quote from Swiftgale >>

So to clarify I have understood this correctly. You are not telling the Harpers anything (yet). You will try again tonight for the dock murderer, and will check out Emerald Enclave another day.

If that is right, we can jump ahead to nightfall and the murder hunt, (and if you have anything you want to do individually for a couple of hours first just say). You do have time for a long rest without getting exhausted following the previous night.

 Yeah,  looks right. Long Rest at least for Toser 

Quote from PlotArmored >>

At some point before we leave for the Opera, Mana will ritually Speak with Animals to Yersinia to give her the run of the house and to keep her ears, eyes, and nose open for disturbances. And to find if there are any other rodents or spiders or other tiny denizens in the many rooms, so that Mana can talk to them later.

(Mana would like to ask the longer term residents about their perceptions of when and where odd things occur seemingly with no cause and then to plead for them to move on rather than being, ahem, exterminated.)

 I forgot to check back on this. Same instructions would be left each time we leave the house until resolved.

Nothing new has been shown at the house. During your nightly searching, you spot a group of drunk sailors leaving a tavern. One, a half-elf, breaks off from the group waving bye, swaggering off and headed towards an area you have determined on your patrol to be full of dark alleyways.

Sterling merely nodded at the others while pointing in the half-elf's direction, then attempted to discretely follow.

(( He'll be using Prestidigitation and/or Minor Illusion to keep his clothing dark, and hide any shiny baubles on his outfit. Would that be enough to warrant a stealth check with advantage? ))

“Do we want to split up?” Mana whispers.

”I might know of a shortcut to get ahead of them.”