At this point, it has stopped raining and is just an overcast afternoon. You've made about half of your planned progress for the day towards the keep. (You may make a survival check to get a number in miles, with advantage if you talk to the kobolds.)

With the weather abated, Mathias speaks with the kobolds about the best route to the destination that will keep the party hidden from whatever may lie within the keep.

[[Advantaged Survival: 21]]

Arista remains with Torban allowing the rest of the crew to travel without the burden of beasts, cart and supplies. They will remain at the cave mouth where they maintain a campfire behind a 5ft high crescent shaped mound of soil that Arista created with Mold Earth and they take turns in keeping watch. 

Kaelen goes along with Mathias, keeping a careful eye out for more creatures or cultists as they head for the Keep.

Perception: 17

The kobolds seem concerned you want to push on now, but will accompany if you wish.

You are about 22 miles from the keep. That's a day's travel at normal traveling speed. You'll arrive after dark, and you'll be risking exhaustion for pushing that hard, and will either be camping close to the keep, separate from the wagons, or have to travel back just as far without resting which will risk even more exhaustion.

((Oh. I guess we should scout out a path part of the way today then return to the cave and leave tomorrow.))

Quote from EmileTherese >>

((Oh. I guess we should scout out a path part of the way today then return to the cave and leave tomorrow.))

 Good idea. I still think it would be best to leave the supplies here during the reconnaissance tomorrow. It seems a safe place and all those supplies would be only a burden. Perhaps if it isn’t all night, Arista can come and be useful for some parts.

Arglen reminds you of the original plan. "We know a good place to stow the wagon just outside of the keep's surveillance area, the whole caravan can reach it by sundown without any strain., Then you would approach the keep during the daylight hours when the kobolds can't supplement the lizard folk's guards and none of their darkvision advantages come in to play. You guys are in charge, we will help no matter what, but if we start from here tomorrow morning, we will still get near the keep just at dusk."

"That sounds like a fine plan, Arglen. If you are sure we can reach this area you speak of by sundown." Mathias says. "What say the rest of you?"

Arista lowers her shoulders with a quiet huff. “You’re right—I misjudged the miles. We’ll follow your route and cache the wagons at your thicket by sundown, then scout the keep in daylight.” She gives Arglen an approving nod. “You three have a knack for this country. When the Duke restores the stronghold, guiding caravans could earn you a safer, steadier living—think on it.”

Asariel nods in agreement, having nothing further to add. 

Kaelen nods as well.

Arglen leads the group through the hills to a smaller cave, much closer to the keep. While there are still some trees, the terrain is far from being a forest, and when trying to look ahead, the pass is visible in the distance, say 3 miles away. Most of you will be outside the cave, but the terrain seems adequate to conceal and protect your supplies while you investigate the keep.

Anyone doing anything of note before we slumber?

Kaelen sets up an audible alarm at the cave entrance.

Nothing of note from Asariel 

(Apart from our watch order, Brekka doesn't do anything extra before resting.)