This post has potentially manipulated dice roll results.
OK, let me see if I can compute the probability of a few things ...
You, the probability of hitting the TN is 1 / 400 = 0.25%, and this is the same probability for hitting a 2, which we have done once.
But the probability of hitting the TN in one of two rolls is ... (2) x (1 / 400) x (399/400) = 0.49875%.
And the probability of hitting the TN in one of three rolls is ... (3) x (1 / 400) x (399 / 400)^2 = 0.7462546875%
It starts to become easier to determine the probability of not hitting the TN. So not hitting the TN in three rolls is (399 / 400)^3, which is stated as the probability of rolling anything but a 40 three times in a row.
So at this point, after 456 rolls, the chance of not hitting the TN has become roughly 32%. We should have hit the TN around roll 277 when the probability was 50%, but each unsuccessful roll doesn't "help us" because once rolled, it is no longer a variable but a fixed event in history. So on each roll, the probability will always be 0.25%.
Well, anyway, let's see if I get lucky. 32
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
21
Well, two consecutive 21s are as likely as a 40, but only really if they are made at the same time...
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
22
7th Member of the High Roller Society
31
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
12
7th Member of the High Roller Society
21
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
16
..
7th Member of the High Roller Society
14
@niceNick
You've got to edit your post and insert a blank at the end of it to enable the dice roll, sometimes this happens.
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
33
i did and i can see the results, cant you see it?
7th Member of the High Roller Society
OK, let me see if I can compute the probability of a few things ...
You, the probability of hitting the TN is 1 / 400 = 0.25%, and this is the same probability for hitting a 2, which we have done once.
But the probability of hitting the TN in one of two rolls is ... (2) x (1 / 400) x (399/400) = 0.49875%.
And the probability of hitting the TN in one of three rolls is ... (3) x (1 / 400) x (399 / 400)^2 = 0.7462546875%
It starts to become easier to determine the probability of not hitting the TN. So not hitting the TN in three rolls is (399 / 400)^3, which is stated as the probability of rolling anything but a 40 three times in a row.
So at this point, after 456 rolls, the chance of not hitting the TN has become roughly 32%. We should have hit the TN around roll 277 when the probability was 50%, but each unsuccessful roll doesn't "help us" because once rolled, it is no longer a variable but a fixed event in history. So on each roll, the probability will always be 0.25%.
Well, anyway, let's see if I get lucky. 32
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt
Now, with the dots I see it.
13
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
28
My Ready-to-rock&roll chars:
Dertinus Tristany // Amilcar Barca // Vicenç Sacrarius // Oriol Deulofeu // Grovtuk
20
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
24
13
Paladin main who spends most of his D&D time worldbuilding or DMing, not Paladin-ing.
29
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
12
24
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
16
7th Member of the High Roller Society
8
|| Oriace - Halfling Bard - Dragon Heist || Valerian - Elf Rogue - Wildnis || Rowan - Halfling Giant - Runewarren || Khazela - Spiritfarer Dervish - Yawning Portal || Arista - Frost Sorcerer - Old Keep || Marasatra - Blood Mage - Avernus || Lan Shi - Liquid Swords || Syed - Drakkenheim || Kaelthor - Dragonlance ||
15
Paladin main who spends most of his D&D time worldbuilding or DMing, not Paladin-ing.