The High Roller Society

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I thought I'd copy the probability analysis forward.  I added which quarter the success fell into as an extra indicator.  We are now in the 4th Quarter of this attempt.

We are currently rolling 5d4 to get a 20.

for 5d4      75% - 25% is 294 - 1419    50% is 709     and we have rolled 1420 times already, so this will also be a 4th Quarter result.

for 3d10   75% - 25% is 288 - 1386    50% is 693      and we rolled 2623 times, so this is Outside the middle range  4th Quarter

for 3d8     75% - 25% is 147 - 709      50% is 355      and we rolled 133 times which is Outside the middle range  1st Quarter

for 2d20     75% - 25% is 115 - 554      50% is 277      and we rolled 813 times which is Outside the middle range  4th Quarter

for 4d4       75% - 25% is 74 - 354       50% is 177       and we rolled 387 times which is Outside the middle range  4th Quarter

for 3d6       75% - 25% is 62 - 299      50% is 149       and we rolled 265 times which is Outside the middle range  4th Quarter

for 2d12      75% - 25% is 41 - 199     50% is 99       and we rolled 73 times which is Inside the middle range  2nd Quarter

for 2d10      75% - 25% is 29 - 138      50% is 69      and we rolled 130 times which is Inside the middle range  3rd Quarter

for 3d4       75% - 25% is 18 - 88        50% is 44      and we rolled 87 times which is Inside the middle range  3rd Quarter

for 2d8       75% - 25% is 18 - 88       50% is 44       and we rolled 22 times which is Inside the middle range  2nd Quarter

for 2d6       75% - 25% is 10 - 49      50% is 25       and we rolled 31 times which is Inside the middle range  3rd Quarter

for 1d20     75% - 25% is 6 - 27        50% is 14       and we rolled 6 times which is Inside the middle range  1st/2nd Quarter

for 2d4       75% - 25% is 4 - 21        50% is 11       and we rolled 15 times which is Inside the middle range  3rd Quarter

for 1d12     75% - 25% is 3 - 16        50% is 8        and we rolled 3 times which is Inside the middle range  1st/2nd Quarter

for 1d10     75% - 25% is 3 - 13       50% is 7       and we rolled 10 times which is Inside the middle range  3rd Quarter

for 1d8       75% - 25% is 2 - 10       50% is 5       and we rolled 6 times which is Inside the middle range  3rd Quarter

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I see your point. Since 3d6 we're almost always in the fourth quarter. 

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Cyreon,

Yes, but it is still too early to be able to say we may conclude there is a problem.  While I was checking this out I too noticed that with 5d4 we are now with 5 results in the 4th quarter, but we have also rolled 18 different challenges.  We should have "about" 4 or 5 results in the 4th Quarter.

We have 3 - 1st quarter results in the sixteen I share (I didn't share the first two because 1d4 and 1d6 are hardly worth considering unless they are crazy high, which they were not.

We have 2 - 2nd quarter results.

We have 6 - 3rd quarter results.

And we have 5 - 4th quarter results.

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(SOOOO CLOSE!!!) 

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Quote from MusicScout >>

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Cyreon,

Yes, but it is still too early to be able to say we may conclude there is a problem.  While I was checking this out I too noticed that with 5d4 we are now with 5 results in the 4th quarter, but we have also rolled 18 different challenges.  We should have "about" 4 or 5 results in the 4th Quarter.

We have 3 - 1st quarter results in the sixteen I share (I didn't share the first two because 1d4 and 1d6 are hardly worth considering unless they are crazy high, which they were not.

We have 2 - 2nd quarter results.

We have 6 - 3rd quarter results.

And we have 5 - 4th quarter results.

You're right. If it is just chance, we simply had bad luck that the long ones didn't happened for the quicker challenges.

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