What are the odds that we should have gotten two of any yahtzees?
That's far too complicated for me to work out. Calculating to have seen a Yahtzee of 6's once is just 1 - ( 1 - (1/46656) )^n where n is the number of posts. That works out the chance of having seen one by working out the chance of never having seen one and NOT'ing it. I wouldn't know where to start to work out having seen one twice.
Also - my previous post was wrong. I accidentally used 2/46656 instead of 1/46656. It changes the chances we should have seen a Yahtzee of 6's to 22.38% and the 50/50 mark would be 33,000 posts. That's what I get for doing maths while tired. (I edited the previous post to fix it.)
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Actually did a little digging and it turns out it's not that complicated to work out multiple appearances of any Yahtzee. (It's just a negative binomial distribution). So the chance of us having seen at least 1 of any Yahtzee so far is 78.17%. Considering Yharim got one ages ago - this isn't surprising. (At the time they got it the odds were a little over 50%) The chances of having gotten at least 2 of any Yahtzee is 44.95%. Given that - we should probably expect the second one soonish.
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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What are the odds that we should have gotten two of any yahtzees?
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That's far too complicated for me to work out. Calculating to have seen a Yahtzee of 6's once is just 1 - ( 1 - (1/46656) )^n where n is the number of posts. That works out the chance of having seen one by working out the chance of never having seen one and NOT'ing it. I wouldn't know where to start to work out having seen one twice.
Also - my previous post was wrong. I accidentally used 2/46656 instead of 1/46656. It changes the chances we should have seen a Yahtzee of 6's to 22.38% and the 50/50 mark would be 33,000 posts. That's what I get for doing maths while tired. (I edited the previous post to fix it.)
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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Ouch, but we'll get there eventually. With enough determination and brute force, it is inevitable.
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Actually did a little digging and it turns out it's not that complicated to work out multiple appearances of any Yahtzee. (It's just a negative binomial distribution).
So the chance of us having seen at least 1 of any Yahtzee so far is 78.17%. Considering Yharim got one ages ago - this isn't surprising. (At the time they got it the odds were a little over 50%)
The chances of having gotten at least 2 of any Yahtzee is 44.95%. Given that - we should probably expect the second one soonish.
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
16
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
22
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
24
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Chief Innovationist, Acquisitions Inc. The Series 2
Successfully completed the Tomb of Horrors module (as part of playing Tomb of Annihilation) with no party deaths!
13
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).