Every time we attempt this trial (rolling until we get 36 as the outcome) we could get it on the first roll, or we could roll millions of times before we get it. But if we repeated the trial over and over, the average number of events in each trial would be 46656. So you would need to have a lot more trial results of <46656 to balance out the trials with high numbers of events. Therefore it is more likely that any given trial will reach the result in less than 46656 rolls.
Is that right? Sorry I don't know the maths jargon.
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How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
This post has potentially manipulated dice roll results.
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Not quite right. While the chance to roll a 36 is 1 in 46,656 - it won't need 46,656 posts on average to get a roll of 36. Each roll is completely independent so you need to work out the probability of getting it cumulatively. You can never reach 100% chance though.
For a topic (like this one) to get a 50% chance of having seen a 36 - you need ~33,000 posts. If you repeated a topic with 33k posts in infinitely - half would have gotten at least one 36 (meaning some would have gotten 2 or more) and the rest would have gotten 0.
At 46,656 posts it's nearer ~63% chance to have seen a 36. So yes - we're more likely to see one before 46,656 posts than after.
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
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How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
22
Help me out here...
Every time we attempt this trial (rolling until we get 36 as the outcome) we could get it on the first roll, or we could roll millions of times before we get it. But if we repeated the trial over and over, the average number of events in each trial would be 46656. So you would need to have a lot more trial results of <46656 to balance out the trials with high numbers of events. Therefore it is more likely that any given trial will reach the result in less than 46656 rolls.
Is that right? Sorry I don't know the maths jargon.
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
22
Not quite right. While the chance to roll a 36 is 1 in 46,656 - it won't need 46,656 posts on average to get a roll of 36. Each roll is completely independent so you need to work out the probability of getting it cumulatively. You can never reach 100% chance though.
For a topic (like this one) to get a 50% chance of having seen a 36 - you need ~33,000 posts. If you repeated a topic with 33k posts in infinitely - half would have gotten at least one 36 (meaning some would have gotten 2 or more) and the rest would have gotten 0.
At 46,656 posts it's nearer ~63% chance to have seen a 36. So yes - we're more likely to see one before 46,656 posts than after.
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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I shall ponder this ...
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
27
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
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Family Traditions [Campaign Log] COMPLETED
Cursed Islands [Campaign Log] COMPLETED
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails." - William Arthur Ward
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How to add tooltips on dndbeyond
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How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
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Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
21
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?