That's not what those numbers mean. It's the likelihood we should have seen them by now given the chance of each individual rolls combined. It's calculated from the negative binomial distribution given the probability of getting a super yahtzee or any yahtzee and the number of posts. It's definitely not saying the next roll will have a 56.6% chance of being any yahtzee.
Haha, you're welcome Zorg! And yeah that's what I meant Emmber, that's the gambler's fallacy. Similar to flipping a coin twenty times and it landing on heads 10 times halfway through, then thinking the next one must surely be tails to even the odds despite the chance remaining 50/50
Yea - see a lot of people say "only x times more to go". It's pretty funny. It's quite possible we'll never get a super yahtzee. I don't know about that Zorg. I just like maths.
Well you've got an 18 in 46,656 (1 in 2,592) chance of getting onto my signature. ; ) 1 each for a Yahtzee (6) - 6 for matching a 35 - 6 for matching a 7.
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Curse you @Mat_Yuren. This is your fault I'm here.
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
16
That's not what those numbers mean. It's the likelihood we should have seen them by now given the chance of each individual rolls combined. It's calculated from the negative binomial distribution given the probability of getting a super yahtzee or any yahtzee and the number of posts.
It's definitely not saying the next roll will have a 56.6% chance of being any yahtzee.
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
Haha, you're welcome Zorg!
And yeah that's what I meant Emmber, that's the gambler's fallacy. Similar to flipping a coin twenty times and it landing on heads 10 times halfway through, then thinking the next one must surely be tails to even the odds despite the chance remaining 50/50
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Lynn-Marie Verine-Wintercleaver, Human Bloodhunter - Adventures in Esyldien
Finan Caible, Human Bard - Joys of Balance
Yroc Grumbak, Orc Fighlock - Pizazz's ToA
Arell Peroan, Half-Elf Warlonk - Scattered Gods
ESC! | 10|33|5~
20
@Emmber you were born for this thread
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
14
Yea - see a lot of people say "only x times more to go". It's pretty funny. It's quite possible we'll never get a super yahtzee.
I don't know about that Zorg. I just like maths.
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
22
Yeah, I said that earlier. :) But if I thought we needed 40000 rolls to get the result I wouldn't bother rolling at n=15000
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
15
I'm just here to get featured in Emmber's sig and/or bragging rights.
Lynn-Marie Verine-Wintercleaver, Human Bloodhunter - Adventures in Esyldien
Finan Caible, Human Bard - Joys of Balance
Yroc Grumbak, Orc Fighlock - Pizazz's ToA
Arell Peroan, Half-Elf Warlonk - Scattered Gods
ESC! | 10|33|5~
13
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
24
Good enough reason.
How does a red dragon blow out the candles on its birthday cake?
19
Well you've got an 18 in 46,656 (1 in 2,592) chance of getting onto my signature. ; )
1 each for a Yahtzee (6) - 6 for matching a 35 - 6 for matching a 7.
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
21
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Chief Innovationist, Acquisitions Inc. The Series 2
Successfully completed the Tomb of Horrors module (as part of playing Tomb of Annihilation) with no party deaths!
19
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
20
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Watch DnD Shorts on youtube.
Chief Innovationist, Acquisitions Inc. The Series 2
Successfully completed the Tomb of Horrors module (as part of playing Tomb of Annihilation) with no party deaths!
23
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
21
Family Traditions [Campaign Log] COMPLETED
Cursed Islands [Campaign Log] COMPLETED
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails." - William Arthur Ward
26
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Chief Innovationist, Acquisitions Inc. The Series 2
Successfully completed the Tomb of Horrors module (as part of playing Tomb of Annihilation) with no party deaths!
17
15
Mega Yahtzee Thread:
Highest 41: brocker2001 (#11,285).
Yahtzee of 2's: Emmber (#36,161).
Lowest 9: JoeltheWalrus (#312), Emmber (#12,505) and Dertinus (#20,953).
23
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Watch DnD Shorts on youtube.
Chief Innovationist, Acquisitions Inc. The Series 2
Successfully completed the Tomb of Horrors module (as part of playing Tomb of Annihilation) with no party deaths!
19
Meili Liang Lvl 5 Monk
Dice