While in principle it's possible to just be unlucky, a hundred rolls with no 20s is suspicious for non-random causes, and two hundred is definitely time to consider causes other than luck (my experience is that it's mostly confirmation bias, but biased dice and bad die rolling practices also have their part).
Getting nat 20s in skill checks seems to rule that out (even if you always have advantafge in skill checks it doesn't even double the chance of a "crit"
Kaneda are you sure you have NEVER had crit. While the odds of having no crit hits in 480 attempts is extremely low odds of having 5 or less is about 2 in a million, while that is still very low it is likely to have happened to somone playing D&D, multiply that by all the other unlikely dice sequences (Never rolling a Nat 1, never rolling 12 for your greatsword damage, never rolling a nat 20 on a particular skill check etc).
I saw someone roll 48 damage on a level 3 fireball on roll 20 (8 sixes). The odds on that are 1.7 million to 1, thousands of times more likely than getting no crits in 480 rolls but on a par with only getting about 4.
It is a lot more likely but in 1 battle I went unconcious 3 times and on each occasion my first death save roll was a nat 20. (odds 8000 to 1). It is moments like that which are truly memorable. Enjoy you for (or maybe next) crit.
I can't rule out that I may have crit once during my first campaign. I remember criting once definitely, but that was the portent wizard giving me his nat 20 he rolled after his long rest, so that doesn't really count. It was an epic Guiding Bolt though that ended up doing some 36-40ish damage and oneshotting the enemy.
So am I 100% sure? Nope, can't be. Could it be selection bias? Perhaps. I can 99% confidently say that I haven't critted in my current campaign and we're some 7-8 sessions in and I play a fighter that does attacks most of the time.
7 or 8 sessions without a crit on an attack is much more plausable. As it depends how combat focus your campaign is and your level I can not say how many attacks you have had but it is likely to be less than 100. (At level 1 to 4 in a 4 round combat you might have 5 attacks and you might have 2 such combats per session. The odds of no crit in 100 attacks is 0.59% (not 0.059% as someone said) which while unlikely when combined with all the other unlikely things you may have noticed with your rolling you would pretty much expect to find something that is a 1 in 200 chance.
Heck I am the DM and I have gone 7 or 8 sessions without rolling a crit. And I roll WAY more often than a player does because I roll for all the monsters and NPCs. I had one session in which my very expensive, definitely properly balanced, wonderful metal d20 never rolled over a 9. Single digits all session long. Sometimes it happens. I know for a fact that die is balanced (I tested it when I got it, since it was my first ever metal d20).
I would definitely start tracking that d20 you are using and see what it is doing. Long-term average should be about 10.5, with roughly 5% of rolls being each individual number. It may be that the 20-side of the die is heavier. Try using a different d20 maybe and see what happens. Change materials - if you use plastic, try metal. If you use metal, try plastic. If you go plastic, look for clear/translucent/see-through ones so you can see inside that they have an even interior. The solid plastic ones, if you cut them open (I have not, but I've seen videos of people who do) sometimes have air holes inside which will make the die lighter on one side than the other.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
WOTC lies. We know that WOTC lies. WOTC knows that we know that WOTC lies. We know that WOTC knows that we know that WOTC lies. And still they lie.
Because of the above (a paraphrase from Orwell) I no longer post to the forums -- PM me if you need help or anything.
Do you fight a lot? Or do you play in a roleplay- heavy campaign where you often go multiple sessions without entering combat? I'm in one of those campaigns now and I have definitely noticed my crits being fewer and farther between as a result, but it still feels wild to me that it hasn't happened at all yet.
Or does your DM run really easy combats that are over in like a round so there's not that much rolling going on? The average combat encounter is about 3 rounds. Would you say combats in your game last less or more than 3 rounds?
I use a mix of digital D&D Beyond dice + 5 different physical d20s
We have roughly 2 fights per session that lasts on average 3-5 rounds. I probably take the attack action 75% of the time.
In my first campaign I was a cleric and for the majority of the time my attack rounds would consist of booming blade + spiritual weapon, so 2 d20 rolls. Except for when starting up with a spell in the first round.
In my current campaign I'm level 4 and have up until now only had 1 attack per turn, although since the last session I've gotten Polearm Master, so I get an extra attack roll on my bonus action most of the time.
I can't rule out that I may have crit once during my first campaign. I remember criting once definitely, but that was the portent wizard giving me his nat 20 he rolled after his long rest, so that doesn't really count. It was an epic Guiding Bolt though that ended up doing some 36-40ish damage and oneshotting the enemy.
So am I 100% sure? Nope, can't be. Could it be selection bias? Perhaps. I can 99% confidently say that I haven't critted in my current campaign and we're some 7-8 sessions in and I play a fighter that does attacks most of the time.
Altrazin Aghanes - Wizard/Fighter
Varpulis Windhowl - Fighter
Skolson Demjon - Cleric/Fighter
7 or 8 sessions without a crit on an attack is much more plausable. As it depends how combat focus your campaign is and your level I can not say how many attacks you have had but it is likely to be less than 100. (At level 1 to 4 in a 4 round combat you might have 5 attacks and you might have 2 such combats per session. The odds of no crit in 100 attacks is 0.59% (not 0.059% as someone said) which while unlikely when combined with all the other unlikely things you may have noticed with your rolling you would pretty much expect to find something that is a 1 in 200 chance.
Heck I am the DM and I have gone 7 or 8 sessions without rolling a crit. And I roll WAY more often than a player does because I roll for all the monsters and NPCs. I had one session in which my very expensive, definitely properly balanced, wonderful metal d20 never rolled over a 9. Single digits all session long. Sometimes it happens. I know for a fact that die is balanced (I tested it when I got it, since it was my first ever metal d20).
I would definitely start tracking that d20 you are using and see what it is doing. Long-term average should be about 10.5, with roughly 5% of rolls being each individual number. It may be that the 20-side of the die is heavier. Try using a different d20 maybe and see what happens. Change materials - if you use plastic, try metal. If you use metal, try plastic. If you go plastic, look for clear/translucent/see-through ones so you can see inside that they have an even interior. The solid plastic ones, if you cut them open (I have not, but I've seen videos of people who do) sometimes have air holes inside which will make the die lighter on one side than the other.
WOTC lies. We know that WOTC lies. WOTC knows that we know that WOTC lies. We know that WOTC knows that we know that WOTC lies. And still they lie.
Because of the above (a paraphrase from Orwell) I no longer post to the forums -- PM me if you need help or anything.
Do you fight a lot? Or do you play in a roleplay- heavy campaign where you often go multiple sessions without entering combat? I'm in one of those campaigns now and I have definitely noticed my crits being fewer and farther between as a result, but it still feels wild to me that it hasn't happened at all yet.
Or does your DM run really easy combats that are over in like a round so there's not that much rolling going on? The average combat encounter is about 3 rounds. Would you say combats in your game last less or more than 3 rounds?
To people asking :)
I use a mix of digital D&D Beyond dice + 5 different physical d20s
We have roughly 2 fights per session that lasts on average 3-5 rounds. I probably take the attack action 75% of the time.
In my first campaign I was a cleric and for the majority of the time my attack rounds would consist of booming blade + spiritual weapon, so 2 d20 rolls. Except for when starting up with a spell in the first round.
In my current campaign I'm level 4 and have up until now only had 1 attack per turn, although since the last session I've gotten Polearm Master, so I get an extra attack roll on my bonus action most of the time.
Altrazin Aghanes - Wizard/Fighter
Varpulis Windhowl - Fighter
Skolson Demjon - Cleric/Fighter