Hello all, Level 1 DM here,

Running my first ever campaign with first time players and went with Lost Mine of Phandelver. The party delved into the Redbrand hideout and cleared out about half of it (they had one peek at the room of bugbears and understandably said 'NOPE' as well as leaving the room with 4 gambling ruffians). Glasstaff ended up escaping and the Nothic ended up scurrying away too (planning for these two to maybe regroup later on).

Now here's the conundrum:

Halia wants to take over the Redbrands in some capacity for the Zhentarim and to extend their control over Phandalin, which I think would be a cool development, and now that Glasstaff is out of the picture it seems that this plan is a go. However, I don't know what exactly to do with the Redbrands in their current limbo state since the Halia takeover wouldn't happen within this campaign's timescale. 

Would the bugbears be interim leaders on behalf of the Black Spider? Would Halia somehow get her plan in motion? Would the ruffians just scatter into the forest and lose aim without a leader?

Maybe I'm overthinking, just wanna make the Redbrand transition make sense.

You have some amount of discretion here. The bugbears could appoint their own leader(s), or they could wind up searching for Glasstaff. Maybe, without leadership, they succumb to infighting and leave on their own accord. If they do this, Halia might step up her timescale if there's an opportunity that might not last forever (after all, Nothic and Glasstaff are still alive and could possibly return). Halia could even see this as an opportunity to seize more influence over the Redbrands with her leadership.

Or you could come up with something else. That said, I think this is quite feasible and you should follow your gut for what seems natural. When reviewing what you're planning to do, just remember to ask "Why would this character do this?" and if it doesn't make sense to you why they would do it, find something else for them to do. If you have a good reason for why a character would do something, it will feel somewhat reasonable to your players. Remember that real world figures often make garbage decisions because of lack of information or emotions running high, so the decisions your NPCs make don't have to be perfect, just reasonable.

When I ran through LMoP I established that most of the Redbrands were actually failed miners who had heard legends of Phandalin and were all certain they were just one lucky mining trip away from a life of riches and luxury. In this context it would make sense that they're all already familiar with Halia, since she runs the Miner's Exchange... maybe she's been slyly building alliances with the remaining Redbrands this whole time. Maybe with leadership absent the disorganized human members start to just nab some of the loot they've got stashed and try to cash out before the authorities start to show up in town, only to get an offer to start making some real money from the Zhentarim. 

So that's my solution... have the takeover kind of already ongoing within the background. Halia already has allies and resources within the Redbrands and is suddenly the only source of protection for the Redbrands who maybe have word that members of the Lord's Alliance are in town getting ready to establish the rule of law.

I think the Bugbears could do practically anything at this point, but my inclination would be to have the Bugbears remain in the Redbrand Hideout and try to take that over. They don't really know any of the Ruffians and can't really tell them apart anyway, so when the Redbrands abandon the place it just becomes another goblin hideout until some point when Halia can gather a force large enough to drive them out.

I think it's important to remember why the Redbrands exist from a story point of view. They are one of the many breadcrumbs that are laid that will trace back to the Black Spider. The Black Spider sent Glasstaff to set up the Redbrands to ruff people up and report back to him on anyone coming to Phandalin who is looking for the mine.

The Bugbears were sent there by King Grol at the request of the Black Spider to add some extra muscle to the operation and act as an extra check and balance to Grol and then Black Spider on what's happening in Phandalin.

So, if Glasstaff vanishes and the Redbrand Ruffians are killed or leave, I think the first thing the Bugbears would do is flee to Cragmaw Castle to let Grol know that someone is in Phandalin causing trouble. As for Halia, she's been looking to secure her grip over the town for a while and if she can supplant Glasstaff and whomever he reports to (she doesn't know about the Black Spider) she can just take over an existing operation without doing any of the work.

But if the Bugbears return to their master, Glasstaff is gone, and the ruffians are dead or gone, I'm not sure what is left fo Halia to take over. Remembering the bread crumbs idea, if the Bugbears are the only ones left, maybe you figure out a way for the PC's to see them fleeing and have the opportunity to decide to follow them to Cragmaw Castle? Cragmaw Castle is one of the few ways they can discover the location of Wave Echo Cave so giving them an opportunity to go to Cragmaw will really help the story move along.

Thanks for the advice guys.

Currently there are 2 bugbears and around 10 ruffians (5 in hideout and maybe 5 in Sleeping Giant?) still alive. Feel like the bugbears and ruffians wouldn't really get along so maybe the bugbears decide to just rule them with an iron fist (like Klarg ruled the Cragmaw cave). Guess my real question is HOW exactly would Halia go about controlling this new group from the shadows?

Just had an idea now whilst writing this! What if the Redbrands were already an existing group with a leader who was ousted by Glasstaff and the bugbears when they arrived (Credit to 'How to D&D' YT channel)? Maybe this leader managed to flee with his life and after several months, now gets an anonymous (Halia) message saying that he has a chance to reclaim his rightful place as leader. With the ruffians and bugbears in disharmony and the party looking to finally erase the threat to the Phandalin locals, a showdown occurs between party and bugbears...with the estranged leader stepping in to help. After victory (I hope) the remaining ruffians happily come under new/old leadership, signalling a new goal of strength and security ("Phandalin can't rely on the help of outsiders for safety, instead we must strengthen ourselves"), acting as the town's Redbrand Militia or Redbrand Guard or something. Halia would be able to control the group by using the new leader as her liason and puppet, with the group overall being more pleasant than under Glasstaff's rule but maybe now and then doing some shady Zhentarim activities and unpleasantries.

Sorry if it's a bit incoherent, just wanted to share some raw thoughts and ideas to see what anyone thinks.

Halia is supposed to offer the characters some money in exchange for any correspondence they find in the hideout. I take that to mean that she's trying to figure out who is really in charge of the group so she can go directly to the top and take over for Glasstaff. So if Glasstaff is gone, and Halia can get enough information about who he was reporting to, I think she would go directly to King Grol or Nezznar to ask for take over the job.

It might be cool if when the characters get to the King's quarters in Cragmaw Castle that they find not only King Grol and Vyerith in there negotiating for the map but Halia would also be there with them trying to strategize about her assuming control over the Redbrands.

I think that's a good idea for a resolution to the problem, Nacho.

Timon that sounds like it would be a very interesting confrontation at the castle! However, I do want to keep up Halia's appearances for now so that she can invite one of my party members to the Zhentarim and maybe give out faction quests later on.

Thanks Transmorpher, think I'll go ahead with it most likely.