Okay, so my group and I started a fight and rolled for initiative. I got a natural 20 while everyone else got a natural 1. So I wanted to know what would be the probability of four out of five players rolling a nat 1 at the same time if anyone is willing to answer.
Okay, so my group and I started a fight and rolled for initiative. I got a natural 20 while everyone else got a natural 1. So I wanted to know what would be the probability of four out of five players rolling a nat 1 at the same time if anyone is willing to answer.
To the posts above: no, that’s not correct. You’re calculating the odds for four dice being rolled and all showing a 1. In this case five dice are rolled, so 3200000 possible outcomes. Out of those 5 times 19 give exactly four (so not 5) 1s. The odds are 19 in 640000.
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Want to start playing but don't have anyone to play with? You can try these options: [link].
All of these assume perfectly balanced dice. Without being able to check the dice in question we assume that they are, but realistically, gamer dice pretty much never are unless they're willing to shell out for precision dice and change them out every few sessions.
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Find your own truth, choose your enemies carefully, and never deal with a dragon.
"Canon" is what's factual to D&D lore. "Cannon" is what you're going to be shot with if you keep getting the word wrong.
If I can roll three 3s for ability score generation (which means three sets of four 1s on d6s by 5e method) using the same dice and dice tower as everyone else, then 4 fumbles out of 5 attack rolls doesn't seem so unlikely to me.
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Human. Male. Possibly. Don't be a divider. My characters' backgrounds are written like instruction manuals rather than stories. My opinion and preferences don't mean you're wrong. I am 99.7603% convinced that the digital dice are messing with me. I roll high when nobody's looking and low when anyone else can see.🎲 “It's a bit early to be thinking about an epitaph. No?” will be my epitaph.
While real world dice might not be perfectly balanced I can not see them being so biased as to make a significant difference to the odds. If a die rolls a nat 1 more than 6% of the time or less than 4% of the time it is going to be pretty obviously damaged. Also normally when playing d&d everyone rolls a different die for initiative.
I think a lot of it is people see patterns in things. With a group of 5 players while the odds 4 getting a nat 1 is small, so is the odds of 4 getting a nat 20, or all getting the same number or getting 1,2,3,4,5 or........ the odds of getting any of these then becomes reasonably high.
Okay, so my group and I started a fight and rolled for initiative. I got a natural 20 while everyone else got a natural 1. So I wanted to know what would be the probability of four out of five players rolling a nat 1 at the same time if anyone is willing to answer.
Actually, 4 nat 1s is the same probability as any other combination.
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Okay, so my group and I started a fight and rolled for initiative. I got a natural 20 while everyone else got a natural 1. So I wanted to know what would be the probability of four out of five players rolling a nat 1 at the same time if anyone is willing to answer.
1 in 160000 chance of four people getting a nat 1 at the same time
1 in 3200000 that an extra person rolls a nat 20
20 x 20 x 20 x 20
Godspeed.
To the posts above: no, that’s not correct. You’re calculating the odds for four dice being rolled and all showing a 1. In this case five dice are rolled, so 3200000 possible outcomes. Out of those 5 times 19 give exactly four (so not 5) 1s. The odds are 19 in 640000.
Want to start playing but don't have anyone to play with? You can try these options: [link].
All of these assume perfectly balanced dice. Without being able to check the dice in question we assume that they are, but realistically, gamer dice pretty much never are unless they're willing to shell out for precision dice and change them out every few sessions.
Find your own truth, choose your enemies carefully, and never deal with a dragon.
"Canon" is what's factual to D&D lore. "Cannon" is what you're going to be shot with if you keep getting the word wrong.
If I can roll three 3s for ability score generation (which means three sets of four 1s on d6s by 5e method) using the same dice and dice tower as everyone else, then 4 fumbles out of 5 attack rolls doesn't seem so unlikely to me.
Human. Male. Possibly. Don't be a divider.
My characters' backgrounds are written like instruction manuals rather than stories. My opinion and preferences don't mean you're wrong.
I am 99.7603% convinced that the digital dice are messing with me. I roll high when nobody's looking and low when anyone else can see.🎲
“It's a bit early to be thinking about an epitaph. No?” will be my epitaph.
While real world dice might not be perfectly balanced I can not see them being so biased as to make a significant difference to the odds. If a die rolls a nat 1 more than 6% of the time or less than 4% of the time it is going to be pretty obviously damaged. Also normally when playing d&d everyone rolls a different die for initiative.
I think a lot of it is people see patterns in things. With a group of 5 players while the odds 4 getting a nat 1 is small, so is the odds of 4 getting a nat 20, or all getting the same number or getting 1,2,3,4,5 or........ the odds of getting any of these then becomes reasonably high.
Actually, 4 nat 1s is the same probability as any other combination.