So, If you where a halfling and you add advantage on your attack roll, what would the odd be that you get a 1 on your final dice?
You're asking what the probability of rolling three 1s in a row is? Two dice from advantage as 1s, and another 1 from re-rolling one die from the Lucky racial feature?
That probability is calculated as 1/(x^n) where x = # of possible results per roll and n = # of dice rolled, so we are calculating 1/(20^3) = 1/(20*20*20) = 1/8000 = 0.0125% probability.
You don't know what fear is until you've witnessed a drunk bird divebombing you while carrying a screaming Kobold throwing fire anywhere and everywhere.
Why would a low chance of rolling a 1 break the game?
Without advantage, the chance of rolling a 1 with the re-roll is 1/400 or 0.25%. The difference of odds of 1/400 vs 1/8000 don't really matter. It's such a rare occurrence in either case.
Statistics is a dangerous game. At what point do you consider each chance individually versus a series of chances as a whole? If the factors are reset per chance - such as rolling dice, should one consider multiple attempts as one or should each attempt be considered alone?
1d20, 1/20 for any specific number. Roll again. 1/20 for any specific number, including the previous number. Roll again. 1/20 for any specific number including the previous number.
...or 1d20 x 3, 1/8000 for all 3 to be the same number as if we are rolling a singled die with 8000 faces.
...but that's not what we're actually doing. 3 individual roles. 1/20 for any specific number each. It's a gambler's folly to expect a payout just because 7999 attempts were made. In the end, it's still 1/20 regardless what came before.
Scope changes everything, but which scope is the right one?
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Human. Male. Possibly. Don't be a divider. My characters' backgrounds are written like instruction manuals rather than stories. My opinion and preferences don't mean you're wrong. I am 99.7603% convinced that the digital dice are messing with me. I roll high when nobody's looking and low when anyone else can see.🎲 “It's a bit early to be thinking about an epitaph. No?” will be my epitaph.
You don't know what fear is until you've witnessed a drunk bird divebombing you while carrying a screaming Kobold throwing fire anywhere and everywhere.
Scope changes everything, but which scope is the right one?
... the one which is mathematically sound
Exactly. It's not 3 trials. It's one - roll three d20s, what are the odds they all come up 1? No one said it will happen in 8000 rolls. The odds are 1/8000.
And what I said is that 1/400 and 1/8000 will feel the same at the table. Hell, even 1/20 feels pretty rare.
What I still don't get is the statement that something breaks because a halfling with advantage has an infinitesimal chance of rolling a 1 vs a slightly less infinitesimal chance.
You don't know what fear is until you've witnessed a drunk bird divebombing you while carrying a screaming Kobold throwing fire anywhere and everywhere.
So, If you where a halfling and you add advantage on your attack roll, what would the odd be that you get a 1 on your final dice?
When the DM smiles, it is already to late.
You're asking what the probability of rolling three 1s in a row is? Two dice from advantage as 1s, and another 1 from re-rolling one die from the Lucky racial feature?
That probability is calculated as 1/(x^n) where x = # of possible results per roll and n = # of dice rolled, so we are calculating 1/(20^3) = 1/(20*20*20) = 1/8000 = 0.0125% probability.
You don't know what fear is until you've witnessed a drunk bird divebombing you while carrying a screaming Kobold throwing fire anywhere and everywhere.
Thanks, now I know how to break the game again.
When the DM smiles, it is already to late.
Why would a low chance of rolling a 1 break the game?
Without advantage, the chance of rolling a 1 with the re-roll is 1/400 or 0.25%. The difference of odds of 1/400 vs 1/8000 don't really matter. It's such a rare occurrence in either case.
Statistics is a dangerous game. At what point do you consider each chance individually versus a series of chances as a whole? If the factors are reset per chance - such as rolling dice, should one consider multiple attempts as one or should each attempt be considered alone?
1d20, 1/20 for any specific number. Roll again. 1/20 for any specific number, including the previous number. Roll again. 1/20 for any specific number including the previous number.
...or 1d20 x 3, 1/8000 for all 3 to be the same number as if we are rolling a singled die with 8000 faces.
...but that's not what we're actually doing. 3 individual roles. 1/20 for any specific number each. It's a gambler's folly to expect a payout just because 7999 attempts were made. In the end, it's still 1/20 regardless what came before.
Scope changes everything, but which scope is the right one?
Human. Male. Possibly. Don't be a divider.
My characters' backgrounds are written like instruction manuals rather than stories. My opinion and preferences don't mean you're wrong.
I am 99.7603% convinced that the digital dice are messing with me. I roll high when nobody's looking and low when anyone else can see.🎲
“It's a bit early to be thinking about an epitaph. No?” will be my epitaph.
... the one which is mathematically sound
You don't know what fear is until you've witnessed a drunk bird divebombing you while carrying a screaming Kobold throwing fire anywhere and everywhere.
https://i.stack.imgur.com/AH1On.png
Exactly. It's not 3 trials. It's one - roll three d20s, what are the odds they all come up 1? No one said it will happen in 8000 rolls. The odds are 1/8000.
And what I said is that 1/400 and 1/8000 will feel the same at the table. Hell, even 1/20 feels pretty rare.
What I still don't get is the statement that something breaks because a halfling with advantage has an infinitesimal chance of rolling a 1 vs a slightly less infinitesimal chance.
Yeah, that doesn't break anything
You don't know what fear is until you've witnessed a drunk bird divebombing you while carrying a screaming Kobold throwing fire anywhere and everywhere.
Well, in our campaign there is a certain homebrew spell that lets me use that the break it to kill a small army using that.
When the DM smiles, it is already to late.
It sounds like your homebrew spell is way overpowered. There are recommendations in the DMG on how to make better balanced spells.
Yea, we should fix it. It is a chaos bolt on steroids. I think that I will ask to put a limit on the number of creatures it can hit.
When the DM smiles, it is already to late.
We fixed it so that when you jump you get a cumulative penalty to the next attack roll.
When the DM smiles, it is already to late.