My best gauge of the situation is for me to gather more evidence that is totally damning. The DM, while not educated in statistics, certainly grasps the concepts very easily. He is a smart guy. Most successful DM's I have found are. We are deep into "what-if" and trying to predict human reactions at this point. I could be very wrong on my approach. But my gut tells me to talk to the DM privately, as opposed to bringing to the table.
I don't know any of these people, so I might be completely misreading this situation. But if I were the DM, I would much prefer a player share their suspicions early, so I can try to head off the problem gracefully. It seems like you're trying to back your DM into a "you have to kick your friend out" corner.
I would prefer going to the DM with overwhelming evidence, as opposed to saying "these numbers sure seem out of whack".
You may have said this somewhere else, but I've got to ask. Why can't you just suggest to the DM and/or the other players the option of using a dice-rolling bot in Discord?
Because the bulk of the players are old school, and "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". If I was the DM, and did not know there was a problem, (and I doubt many DM's would pick up on this given how much is on a DM's plate during a session), my first thought would be "Why do you want this?". I am not prepared to answer that question without more data.
Honestly, given the limited numbers you've posted you are going to need to collect a *mountain* of data to get something that is statistically significant enough to "prove" that this guy is cheating. Over 50-100 rolls a likelihood of 1-2% isn't going to prove anything. Two nat 20s in a row is 1 in 400 and nobody is going to be accused of cheating for rolling that. Scientifically speaking, you would need to get to 5 sigma to "prove" your theory, which is a probability of about 1 in 1.7 million (~ 0.0006%).
I mean, in your place I would at least see if the group is open to the idea of using an online dice roller before going on a crusade. Honestly, part of the fun of sitting around a table is *seeing* those crazy rolls that crop up just when the party does (or doesn't) need them. An online dice roller emulates that feeling, and there's plenty of other advantages you could list.
I just don't see that conducting a "crusade" against this guy is going to get you to a happier table all around, assuming that is the actual goal.
Actually, 5-sigma is one in 3.5 million, but you are certainly in the ball park. But I am not needing to prove the existence of a high energy particle that changes our view of physics.
Let's break this down with a very simple example, which is far less complicated than rolling d20s' against their expected value. Say someone rolls 11 on a d20 or higher 50 times in a row. That is the equivalent of 50 heads in a row on a coin flip. The odds of that happening are (1/2) ** 50, or (1/1028) ** 5 = less than one in 1000 trillion. That is a straight binomial distribution. To get to 5 sigma, I would only need 22 rolls of 11 or higher in a roll. So let's see where this is at after 50 data points.
And for the record, look at my data I posted some time ago, where I took best case and subtracted 6 from every modified roll. (we know that is impossible, but it I did not track rolls with a +4, but I will now from now on) and listed each number and its frequency. If we go strictly with my heads = 11 or better, tails = 10 or lower, 20 of 28 rolls were 11 or better. (and 4 were exactly 10).
The odds of a minimum of 20 rolls of 11 or better out of 28 = 1.78%. That is too big a number to go to the DM and say "this guy is cheating". But say two of those 10's were 11's, (we could say that two four of the modified scores of 16 were at +5 instead of +6 to achieve this). Now the cumulative probability drops to 0.186%. By comparison, back to back 20's is 0.250%.
So let's really dive into the probability of a binomial distribution. Let's assume that indeed, two of the four modified 16's were raw 11's, instead of raw 10's, as described above. Now take that 22:6 ratio, or a 78.6% chance of success, and extrapolate to 50 rolls. That is 39 successful rolls, rounded down. Now run that same binomial distribution.
The odds of 39 or better rolls out of 50 is now 0.0000451, or 0.00451%. , or one in 22,172. Oh, and 40 out of 50 successful rolls, that is now one out 83,822. 4 consecutive 20's is one in 80,000.
And these are the simplified numbers, where it is strictly a coin flip (11 or better = heads). The d20's are way more complicated, but so far, the numbers are even more heavily skewed against the player, as the mean so far is 12.536, with an expected value of 10.5.
So let's see what this looks like after I collect more data.
I have an alternative strategy which may work. It's just popped into my head and I've spent no real time thinking about it, so I won't be offended if anyone tells me it's a bad idea.
The ideal, win-win situation would be where both players get to stay and enjoy the game, nobody felt attacked or accused, and the OP no longer thought the other player was cheating.
Given this, any outright accusation, either towards the player or to the DM, will lead to a sub-optimal result. Carrying on collecting data cannot solve the situation optimally unless it proves to the OP that there is no hanky panky.
Instead of all this, I suggest an offhand comment about the hot streak the other player is on. "Wow, this is amazing, I haven't seen a lucky steak like this in years!" or something like that. The point being that it will raise the issue in a completely non-hostile way, bringing it to everyone's attention. All the other players will naturally keep a closer track of his, and everyone else's, rolls, and if he is cheating he will know this.
I still don't think you will ever trust this guy, and his play style will continue to annoy and upset you to the point of affecting both your game and everyone else's. However, it's the only way I can see even the vaguest possibility of an optimal solution.
And for the record, look at my data I posted some time ago, where I took best case and subtracted 6 from every modified roll. (we know that is impossible, but it I did not track rolls with a +4, but I will now from now on) and listed each number and its frequency. If we go strictly with my heads = 11 or better, tails = 10 or lower, 20 of 28 rolls were 11 or better. (and 4 were exactly 10).
I actually did look at that data (and said as much, if you'd read my post). (Also full disclaimer, because you seem to assume I'm coming from a place of ignorance: I am educated in statistics). 20 out of 28 above average rolls would not be enough to convince me of cheating. Anecdotally, I've run 8 hour+ sessions where one player basically couldn't roll above a 10 to save their life.
And these are the simplified numbers, where it is strictly a coin flip (11 or better = heads). The d20's are way more complicated, but so far, the numbers are even more heavily skewed against the player, as the mean so far is 12.536, with an expected value of 10.5.
And for the record, look at my data I posted some time ago, where I took best case and subtracted 6 from every modified roll. (we know that is impossible, but it I did not track rolls with a +4, but I will now from now on) and listed each number and its frequency. If we go strictly with my heads = 11 or better, tails = 10 or lower, 20 of 28 rolls were 11 or better. (and 4 were exactly 10).
I actually did look at that data (and said as much, if you'd read my post). (Also full disclaimer, because you seem to assume I'm coming from a place of ignorance: I am educated in statistics). 20 out of 28 above average rolls would not be enough to convince me of cheating. Anecdotally, I've run 8 hour+ sessions where one player basically couldn't roll above a 10 to save their life.
And these are the simplified numbers, where it is strictly a coin flip (11 or better = heads). The d20's are way more complicated, but so far, the numbers are even more heavily skewed against the player, as the mean so far is 12.536, with an expected value of 10.5.
As you are obviously set on your "I will prove that he is cheating" plan, there is little to no point continuing the discussion. You are not even trying to investigate, just to find proof that the opinion you are already set on is true. Nobody is going to convince you otherwise, and nobody is going to turn you from this course of action, so any further discussion is completely pointless.
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
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The Circle of Hedgehogs Druid Beholder/Animated Armor Level -20 Bardof the OIADSB Cult, here are our rules.Sig.Also a sauce council member, but it's been dead for a while.
And for the record, look at my data I posted some time ago, where I took best case and subtracted 6 from every modified roll. (we know that is impossible, but it I did not track rolls with a +4, but I will now from now on) and listed each number and its frequency. If we go strictly with my heads = 11 or better, tails = 10 or lower, 20 of 28 rolls were 11 or better. (and 4 were exactly 10).
I actually did look at that data (and said as much, if you'd read my post). (Also full disclaimer, because you seem to assume I'm coming from a place of ignorance: I am educated in statistics). 20 out of 28 above average rolls would not be enough to convince me of cheating. Anecdotally, I've run 8 hour+ sessions where one player basically couldn't roll above a 10 to save their life.
And these are the simplified numbers, where it is strictly a coin flip (11 or better = heads). The d20's are way more complicated, but so far, the numbers are even more heavily skewed against the player, as the mean so far is 12.536, with an expected value of 10.5.
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
Not sure about his reaction, but mine would be 'And this is why we should be rolling in the open for all to see.' And other than that 'Go for it, knock yourself out'
Actually, I was trying to say that it's a bad idea to keep tabs on players so you can convince the DM that their friend is a liar and a cheat.
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The Circle of Hedgehogs Druid Beholder/Animated Armor Level -20 Bardof the OIADSB Cult, here are our rules.Sig.Also a sauce council member, but it's been dead for a while.
So Vince... I know you said you don't want to ask your DM to enforce online rolling, but... is there any chance you could get a roll-bot set up in your discord? It's not that hard to get a bot set up, and once it's set up, rather than demand everyone ELSE use it... you use it. That is, set the example. Start rolling in the open. When asking to do this, just say you'd like to try it, you think it's cool (even if you really don't), or you are tired of your dice always falling off the table when you roll them, etc. Make it be that YOU want to do online rolling.
If you can get this to happen, then I suspect you may see what happened in my group when we started using Foundry. We had been playing using Powerpoint and doing rolling of physical dice. We used Astral, and still rolled physical dice. Then we switched to Foundry and I installed the 3D dice mod (Dice So Nice!), and just showed people how to use it, but did not ask them to. The first night, one person tried it a few times, and nobody else used it. That person decided he liked it. A couple of sessions later, a second player was using it, and only I and one player were rolling by hand. Then that last hold-out player did the online rolling. And soon nobody was rolling physical dice but me. I am the last hold-out. ;)
My point is, online rolling is fast, convenient, and in many ways easier and less troublesome than manual rolling. It'll add up 8d6 for you really quickly, etc. You don't need to use a VTT... just a bot in Discord. And maybe, just maybe, as the DM and the other players (except the cheater) see how convenient it is, they will all start using it like my group did. Then once everyone but the cheater is using it, then it may be that the DM will tell him to use it too, so that you are all using the same system.
Maybe it won't work... but maybe it will. "Lead by example," and all that.
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WOTC lies. We know that WOTC lies. WOTC knows that we know that WOTC lies. We know that WOTC knows that we know that WOTC lies. And still they lie.
Because of the above (a paraphrase from Orwell) I no longer post to the forums -- PM me if you need help or anything.
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
Not sure about his reaction, but mine would be 'And this is why we should be rolling in the open for all to see.' And other than that 'Go for it, knock yourself out'
Which is kind of funny since vince is the one opposed to open rolling.
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
Not sure about his reaction, but mine would be 'And this is why we should be rolling in the open for all to see.' And other than that 'Go for it, knock yourself out'
Which is kind of funny since vince is the one opposed to open rolling.
Not really ha-ha funny, considering the number of potential outcomes of this whole thing is realistically fairly small. Maybe things will improve when in-person gaming becomes possible again, though this is one thing I'm not optimistic about.
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Want to start playing but don't have anyone to play with? You can try these options: [link].
As you are obviously set on your "I will prove that he is cheating" plan, there is little to no point continuing the discussion. You are not even trying to investigate, just to find proof that the opinion you are already set on is true. Nobody is going to convince you otherwise, and nobody is going to turn you from this course of action, so any further discussion is completely pointless.
Therefore, I'm out.
It's Vince, surely by now you knew that he had already made up his mind what the only answer was before he even thought about posting this to tell us?
Luck can be strange, I have had sessions where I rolled crit after crit, I think I had 3 in one fight in last night's session. I have also had nights when I don't think I was getting into 2 digit numbers. But then we use Roll20 and use the DnDBeyond dice roller so there are no false accusations of cheating.
With reference to suspecting a player is cheating - don't accuse them, but draw attention to it - "oh wow, you hit again? you're on fire - when was the last time you missed?" or "your character is seriously good at dodging - what's your dexterity stat?".
Once everyone has their attention drawn to how good their rolls are, either everyone will start to suspect them or they will reign it in to avoid such suspicion. Observations aren't accusation - they might genuinely be on a great run of luck and share the marvel of it - "yeah, I haven't rolled below a 10 for a dodge save yet! My character must be a ninja!".
Be prepared for nothing to change, but also feel like it's not just you seeing it any more.
I will be running online rolls for everyone for my campaign, to avoid any animosity about this sort of thing. I'm looking forward to when we can meet up and roll our clicky clacky math rocks in person again!
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
Not sure about his reaction, but mine would be 'And this is why we should be rolling in the open for all to see.' And other than that 'Go for it, knock yourself out'
Which is kind of funny since vince is the one opposed to open rolling.
Actually (and he can correct this if I am wrong) but it seemed more that he is not pushing that solution because he is expecting even greater resistance from the rest of the table, not because of any personal aversion to said solution.
Never said that he was aversed to the idea. He still opposes it, though.
So Vince... I know you said you don't want to ask your DM to enforce online rolling, but... is there any chance you could get a roll-bot set up in your discord? It's not that hard to get a bot set up, and once it's set up, rather than demand everyone ELSE use it... you use it. That is, set the example. Start rolling in the open. When asking to do this, just say you'd like to try it, you think it's cool (even if you really don't), or you are tired of your dice always falling off the table when you roll them, etc. Make it be that YOU want to do online rolling.
If you can get this to happen, then I suspect you may see what happened in my group when we started using Foundry. We had been playing using Powerpoint and doing rolling of physical dice. We used Astral, and still rolled physical dice. Then we switched to Foundry and I installed the 3D dice mod (Dice So Nice!), and just showed people how to use it, but did not ask them to. The first night, one person tried it a few times, and nobody else used it. That person decided he liked it. A couple of sessions later, a second player was using it, and only I and one player were rolling by hand. Then that last hold-out player did the online rolling. And soon nobody was rolling physical dice but me. I am the last hold-out. ;)
My point is, online rolling is fast, convenient, and in many ways easier and less troublesome than manual rolling. It'll add up 8d6 for you really quickly, etc. You don't need to use a VTT... just a bot in Discord. And maybe, just maybe, as the DM and the other players (except the cheater) see how convenient it is, they will all start using it like my group did. Then once everyone but the cheater is using it, then it may be that the DM will tell him to use it too, so that you are all using the same system.
Maybe it won't work... but maybe it will. "Lead by example," and all that.
Bio. It is a very good idea. I had a look last night at the channel the DM had set up. I was hoping one was already set up, but the standard commands did not work (keep in mind, I have never used a bot, so googled some of the typical formats.).
So technical questions:
1. Do I install a dice bot on my instance of Discord, even though I have no control over the channel we use, or does channel controller have to do that?
2. What is a decent (and more importantly, simple) one? I want one with the smallest amount of typing. "!2d6 +3" is and example of the simplest command I could find.
3. The channel we use has multiple sub-channels set up by the DM. Titles like General, Source Materials, stuff like that. If a dice bot is set up, does it work across all sub-channels?
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
Not sure about his reaction, but mine would be 'And this is why we should be rolling in the open for all to see.' And other than that 'Go for it, knock yourself out'
Which is kind of funny since vince is the one opposed to open rolling.
Actually (and he can correct this if I am wrong) but it seemed more that he is not pushing that solution because he is expecting even greater resistance from the rest of the table, not because of any personal aversion to said solution.
You are correct. At this point, I am personally agnostic towards a dice bot, since I have not truly used one. One guy had one set up in a channel, and I used a couple commands that he told me about, but none of use used it in a game, since that was an in-person game and the channel was set up for non game day discussion.
So Vince... I know you said you don't want to ask your DM to enforce online rolling, but... is there any chance you could get a roll-bot set up in your discord? It's not that hard to get a bot set up, and once it's set up, rather than demand everyone ELSE use it... you use it. That is, set the example. Start rolling in the open. When asking to do this, just say you'd like to try it, you think it's cool (even if you really don't), or you are tired of your dice always falling off the table when you roll them, etc. Make it be that YOU want to do online rolling.
If you can get this to happen, then I suspect you may see what happened in my group when we started using Foundry. We had been playing using Powerpoint and doing rolling of physical dice. We used Astral, and still rolled physical dice. Then we switched to Foundry and I installed the 3D dice mod (Dice So Nice!), and just showed people how to use it, but did not ask them to. The first night, one person tried it a few times, and nobody else used it. That person decided he liked it. A couple of sessions later, a second player was using it, and only I and one player were rolling by hand. Then that last hold-out player did the online rolling. And soon nobody was rolling physical dice but me. I am the last hold-out. ;)
My point is, online rolling is fast, convenient, and in many ways easier and less troublesome than manual rolling. It'll add up 8d6 for you really quickly, etc. You don't need to use a VTT... just a bot in Discord. And maybe, just maybe, as the DM and the other players (except the cheater) see how convenient it is, they will all start using it like my group did. Then once everyone but the cheater is using it, then it may be that the DM will tell him to use it too, so that you are all using the same system.
Maybe it won't work... but maybe it will. "Lead by example," and all that.
Bio. It is a very good idea. I had a look last night at the channel the DM had set up. I was hoping one was already set up, but the standard commands did not work (keep in mind, I have never used a bot, so googled some of the typical formats.).
So technical questions:
1. Do I install a dice bot on my instance of Discord, even though I have no control over the channel we use, or does channel controller have to do that?
2. What is a decent (and more importantly, simple) one? I want one with the smallest amount of typing. "!2d6 +3" is and example of the simplest command I could find.
3. The channel we use has multiple sub-channels set up by the DM. Titles like General, Source Materials, stuff like that. If a dice bot is set up, does it work across all sub-channels?
1. If you have invite permissions to the server I think you can add the dice bot. Otherwise the server's creator will need to add it.
2. Avrae is as simple or as complex as you need it to be. Just using it as a dice roller the commands would be things like "!r d20+5" for normal rolls, "!r d20+5 adv" for advantage, and "!r d20+5 dis" for disadvantage. Any combination can be typed, even ones that don't physically exist like d3s."!r 3d8+2d6+6"
If you want to link your DDB character sheet to discord You'd enter "!beyond <character sheet link>" and then you can type things like "!attack shortsword", "!check athletics", "!cast magic missile", and "!save dex" which will automatically display the result.
3. The dice bot can work across all channels but the DM can link a DDB campaign to a particular channel where every roll from character sheets within the campaign automatically show up. I run/play in multiple campaigns on Discord and we have a dedicated channel for rolling in each server. It's not perfect, but they have been improving it by leaps and bounds ever since they bought it. You just have to make sure your DDB account is linked to your Discord account.
Every group I have played with on Discord has loved rolling with Avrae. It has been great since we haven't been able to play in person with physical dice.
So Vince... I know you said you don't want to ask your DM to enforce online rolling, but... is there any chance you could get a roll-bot set up in your discord? It's not that hard to get a bot set up, and once it's set up, rather than demand everyone ELSE use it... you use it. That is, set the example. Start rolling in the open. When asking to do this, just say you'd like to try it, you think it's cool (even if you really don't), or you are tired of your dice always falling off the table when you roll them, etc. Make it be that YOU want to do online rolling.
If you can get this to happen, then I suspect you may see what happened in my group when we started using Foundry. We had been playing using Powerpoint and doing rolling of physical dice. We used Astral, and still rolled physical dice. Then we switched to Foundry and I installed the 3D dice mod (Dice So Nice!), and just showed people how to use it, but did not ask them to. The first night, one person tried it a few times, and nobody else used it. That person decided he liked it. A couple of sessions later, a second player was using it, and only I and one player were rolling by hand. Then that last hold-out player did the online rolling. And soon nobody was rolling physical dice but me. I am the last hold-out. ;)
My point is, online rolling is fast, convenient, and in many ways easier and less troublesome than manual rolling. It'll add up 8d6 for you really quickly, etc. You don't need to use a VTT... just a bot in Discord. And maybe, just maybe, as the DM and the other players (except the cheater) see how convenient it is, they will all start using it like my group did. Then once everyone but the cheater is using it, then it may be that the DM will tell him to use it too, so that you are all using the same system.
Maybe it won't work... but maybe it will. "Lead by example," and all that.
Bio. It is a very good idea. I had a look last night at the channel the DM had set up. I was hoping one was already set up, but the standard commands did not work (keep in mind, I have never used a bot, so googled some of the typical formats.).
So technical questions:
1. Do I install a dice bot on my instance of Discord, even though I have no control over the channel we use, or does channel controller have to do that?
2. What is a decent (and more importantly, simple) one? I want one with the smallest amount of typing. "!2d6 +3" is and example of the simplest command I could find.
3. The channel we use has multiple sub-channels set up by the DM. Titles like General, Source Materials, stuff like that. If a dice bot is set up, does it work across all sub-channels?
1.) The server admin, or someone with server admin permissions, has to invite the bot onto the Discord server. You can ask your DM to do it if he controls the server, or ask him to set up a Bot Summoner role with limited admin permissions if you want to volunteer to be the bot wrangler for your server.
2.) We've started using Dice Maiden in our Discord, since RPBot died. It's not Avrae, but we prefer that - Avrae has a ton of other junk it can do which is awesome for tables that want it, but all we want is a simple, no-nonsense dice roller that takes basic dice expressions and outputs numbers for us, and Dice Maiden has delivered. The command is simply "!roll [Dice Expression]", which is all we really want the bot to do.
3.) By default, bots work across all channels, but it's possible to limit their permissions once they're invited such that they only work in a given channel/channels. For most bots, anyways. I'm not much up on my bot wrangling, all I do for my server is invite the durned things and then rely on people to roll in the appropriate channels, but I believe most bots can be configured to only function in a given set of channels if that's important to your group.
Another cool thing about online rollers is that you have a record of what you rolled. Not necessarily for spot-checking other players, but if the DM is having everybody throw dice for a big saving throw or Initiative or such - or if a DM wants to use a given roll over a long stretch of gaming, such as a Perception roll made to keep watch while traveling - you have a record of it. DDB's in-sheet roller is better for that since it automatically labels rolls, I think Avrae does too, but you can simply say something like "Star, perception roll for keeping watch while traveling", post that, then enter your dice expression. For Dice Maiden specifically (just tested it fifteen seconds ago) you can label a roll by entering your dice expression first, line breaking, then giving the roll a name. Like so:
!roll 1d20+2 Star, Initiative roll [Enter/Submit]
The bot will spit out the associated roll, and the DM will know what that roll was for. If it matters for a given roll, anyways.
Just tested it again, and Dice Maiden is convenient enough to pick up on a command no matter where you enter it in a given post. So long as the roll command is in its own line with no other text, you can write whatever else you'd like in the post. As follows:
Example 1:
!roll 1d20+2 Star, Initiative [Enter/Submit]
Example 2:
Rolling initiative for Star !roll 1d20+2 [Enter/Submit]
Invalid Example: Rolling Initiative for Star !roll 1d20+2 [Enter/Submit]
I don't know any of these people, so I might be completely misreading this situation. But if I were the DM, I would much prefer a player share their suspicions early, so I can try to head off the problem gracefully. It seems like you're trying to back your DM into a "you have to kick your friend out" corner.
Actually, 5-sigma is one in 3.5 million, but you are certainly in the ball park. But I am not needing to prove the existence of a high energy particle that changes our view of physics.
Let's break this down with a very simple example, which is far less complicated than rolling d20s' against their expected value. Say someone rolls 11 on a d20 or higher 50 times in a row. That is the equivalent of 50 heads in a row on a coin flip. The odds of that happening are (1/2) ** 50, or (1/1028) ** 5 = less than one in 1000 trillion. That is a straight binomial distribution. To get to 5 sigma, I would only need 22 rolls of 11 or higher in a roll. So let's see where this is at after 50 data points.
And for the record, look at my data I posted some time ago, where I took best case and subtracted 6 from every modified roll. (we know that is impossible, but it I did not track rolls with a +4, but I will now from now on) and listed each number and its frequency. If we go strictly with my heads = 11 or better, tails = 10 or lower, 20 of 28 rolls were 11 or better. (and 4 were exactly 10).
The odds of a minimum of 20 rolls of 11 or better out of 28 = 1.78%. That is too big a number to go to the DM and say "this guy is cheating". But say two of those 10's were 11's, (we could say that two four of the modified scores of 16 were at +5 instead of +6 to achieve this). Now the cumulative probability drops to 0.186%. By comparison, back to back 20's is 0.250%.
So let's really dive into the probability of a binomial distribution. Let's assume that indeed, two of the four modified 16's were raw 11's, instead of raw 10's, as described above. Now take that 22:6 ratio, or a 78.6% chance of success, and extrapolate to 50 rolls. That is 39 successful rolls, rounded down. Now run that same binomial distribution.
The odds of 39 or better rolls out of 50 is now 0.0000451, or 0.00451%. , or one in 22,172. Oh, and 40 out of 50 successful rolls, that is now one out 83,822. 4 consecutive 20's is one in 80,000.
And these are the simplified numbers, where it is strictly a coin flip (11 or better = heads). The d20's are way more complicated, but so far, the numbers are even more heavily skewed against the player, as the mean so far is 12.536, with an expected value of 10.5.
So let's see what this looks like after I collect more data.
I have an alternative strategy which may work. It's just popped into my head and I've spent no real time thinking about it, so I won't be offended if anyone tells me it's a bad idea.
The ideal, win-win situation would be where both players get to stay and enjoy the game, nobody felt attacked or accused, and the OP no longer thought the other player was cheating.
Given this, any outright accusation, either towards the player or to the DM, will lead to a sub-optimal result. Carrying on collecting data cannot solve the situation optimally unless it proves to the OP that there is no hanky panky.
Instead of all this, I suggest an offhand comment about the hot streak the other player is on. "Wow, this is amazing, I haven't seen a lucky steak like this in years!" or something like that. The point being that it will raise the issue in a completely non-hostile way, bringing it to everyone's attention. All the other players will naturally keep a closer track of his, and everyone else's, rolls, and if he is cheating he will know this.
I still don't think you will ever trust this guy, and his play style will continue to annoy and upset you to the point of affecting both your game and everyone else's. However, it's the only way I can see even the vaguest possibility of an optimal solution.
I actually did look at that data (and said as much, if you'd read my post). (Also full disclaimer, because you seem to assume I'm coming from a place of ignorance: I am educated in statistics). 20 out of 28 above average rolls would not be enough to convince me of cheating. Anecdotally, I've run 8 hour+ sessions where one player basically couldn't roll above a 10 to save their life.
With a variance of?
What your arguments are convincing me of is that this is not about resolving the (potential) problem but rather something else.
When I get above n=30, yes, I will run the analysis you wish.
As you are obviously set on your "I will prove that he is cheating" plan, there is little to no point continuing the discussion. You are not even trying to investigate, just to find proof that the opinion you are already set on is true. Nobody is going to convince you otherwise, and nobody is going to turn you from this course of action, so any further discussion is completely pointless.
Therefore, I'm out.
Vince, keeping tabs on that player just to prove them as a cheater is the direct path to getting kicked out of that group, even if they are cheating. Also, telling the DM that you were secretly recording the rolls of their friend to prove them as a cheater won't make anything better. Would you like it if somebody was keeping tabs on you just to prove you're cheating?
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I agree with the others that you are on a predetermined path and any conversation here is pointless.
Actually, I was trying to say that it's a bad idea to keep tabs on players so you can convince the DM that their friend is a liar and a cheat.
The Circle of Hedgehogs Druid Beholder/Animated Armor Level -20 Bard of the OIADSB Cult, here are our rules. Sig. Also a sauce council member, but it's been dead for a while.
So Vince... I know you said you don't want to ask your DM to enforce online rolling, but... is there any chance you could get a roll-bot set up in your discord? It's not that hard to get a bot set up, and once it's set up, rather than demand everyone ELSE use it... you use it. That is, set the example. Start rolling in the open. When asking to do this, just say you'd like to try it, you think it's cool (even if you really don't), or you are tired of your dice always falling off the table when you roll them, etc. Make it be that YOU want to do online rolling.
If you can get this to happen, then I suspect you may see what happened in my group when we started using Foundry. We had been playing using Powerpoint and doing rolling of physical dice. We used Astral, and still rolled physical dice. Then we switched to Foundry and I installed the 3D dice mod (Dice So Nice!), and just showed people how to use it, but did not ask them to. The first night, one person tried it a few times, and nobody else used it. That person decided he liked it. A couple of sessions later, a second player was using it, and only I and one player were rolling by hand. Then that last hold-out player did the online rolling. And soon nobody was rolling physical dice but me. I am the last hold-out. ;)
My point is, online rolling is fast, convenient, and in many ways easier and less troublesome than manual rolling. It'll add up 8d6 for you really quickly, etc. You don't need to use a VTT... just a bot in Discord. And maybe, just maybe, as the DM and the other players (except the cheater) see how convenient it is, they will all start using it like my group did. Then once everyone but the cheater is using it, then it may be that the DM will tell him to use it too, so that you are all using the same system.
Maybe it won't work... but maybe it will. "Lead by example," and all that.
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Which is kind of funny since vince is the one opposed to open rolling.
Not really ha-ha funny, considering the number of potential outcomes of this whole thing is realistically fairly small. Maybe things will improve when in-person gaming becomes possible again, though this is one thing I'm not optimistic about.
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It's Vince, surely by now you knew that he had already made up his mind what the only answer was before he even thought about posting this to tell us?
Luck can be strange, I have had sessions where I rolled crit after crit, I think I had 3 in one fight in last night's session. I have also had nights when I don't think I was getting into 2 digit numbers. But then we use Roll20 and use the DnDBeyond dice roller so there are no false accusations of cheating.
With reference to suspecting a player is cheating - don't accuse them, but draw attention to it - "oh wow, you hit again? you're on fire - when was the last time you missed?" or "your character is seriously good at dodging - what's your dexterity stat?".
Once everyone has their attention drawn to how good their rolls are, either everyone will start to suspect them or they will reign it in to avoid such suspicion. Observations aren't accusation - they might genuinely be on a great run of luck and share the marvel of it - "yeah, I haven't rolled below a 10 for a dodge save yet! My character must be a ninja!".
Be prepared for nothing to change, but also feel like it's not just you seeing it any more.
I will be running online rolls for everyone for my campaign, to avoid any animosity about this sort of thing. I'm looking forward to when we can meet up and roll our clicky clacky math rocks in person again!
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Never said that he was aversed to the idea. He still opposes it, though.
Bio. It is a very good idea. I had a look last night at the channel the DM had set up. I was hoping one was already set up, but the standard commands did not work (keep in mind, I have never used a bot, so googled some of the typical formats.).
So technical questions:
1. Do I install a dice bot on my instance of Discord, even though I have no control over the channel we use, or does channel controller have to do that?
2. What is a decent (and more importantly, simple) one? I want one with the smallest amount of typing. "!2d6 +3" is and example of the simplest command I could find.
3. The channel we use has multiple sub-channels set up by the DM. Titles like General, Source Materials, stuff like that. If a dice bot is set up, does it work across all sub-channels?
You are correct. At this point, I am personally agnostic towards a dice bot, since I have not truly used one. One guy had one set up in a channel, and I used a couple commands that he told me about, but none of use used it in a game, since that was an in-person game and the channel was set up for non game day discussion.
1. If you have invite permissions to the server I think you can add the dice bot. Otherwise the server's creator will need to add it.
2. Avrae is as simple or as complex as you need it to be. Just using it as a dice roller the commands would be things like "!r d20+5" for normal rolls, "!r d20+5 adv" for advantage, and "!r d20+5 dis" for disadvantage. Any combination can be typed, even ones that don't physically exist like d3s."!r 3d8+2d6+6"
If you want to link your DDB character sheet to discord You'd enter "!beyond <character sheet link>" and then you can type things like "!attack shortsword", "!check athletics", "!cast magic missile", and "!save dex" which will automatically display the result.
3. The dice bot can work across all channels but the DM can link a DDB campaign to a particular channel where every roll from character sheets within the campaign automatically show up. I run/play in multiple campaigns on Discord and we have a dedicated channel for rolling in each server. It's not perfect, but they have been improving it by leaps and bounds ever since they bought it. You just have to make sure your DDB account is linked to your Discord account.
Every group I have played with on Discord has loved rolling with Avrae. It has been great since we haven't been able to play in person with physical dice.
https://avrae.io/
It has worked for us without the "-". Spaces are important though.
1.) The server admin, or someone with server admin permissions, has to invite the bot onto the Discord server. You can ask your DM to do it if he controls the server, or ask him to set up a Bot Summoner role with limited admin permissions if you want to volunteer to be the bot wrangler for your server.
2.) We've started using Dice Maiden in our Discord, since RPBot died. It's not Avrae, but we prefer that - Avrae has a ton of other junk it can do which is awesome for tables that want it, but all we want is a simple, no-nonsense dice roller that takes basic dice expressions and outputs numbers for us, and Dice Maiden has delivered. The command is simply "!roll [Dice Expression]", which is all we really want the bot to do.
3.) By default, bots work across all channels, but it's possible to limit their permissions once they're invited such that they only work in a given channel/channels. For most bots, anyways. I'm not much up on my bot wrangling, all I do for my server is invite the durned things and then rely on people to roll in the appropriate channels, but I believe most bots can be configured to only function in a given set of channels if that's important to your group.
Another cool thing about online rollers is that you have a record of what you rolled. Not necessarily for spot-checking other players, but if the DM is having everybody throw dice for a big saving throw or Initiative or such - or if a DM wants to use a given roll over a long stretch of gaming, such as a Perception roll made to keep watch while traveling - you have a record of it. DDB's in-sheet roller is better for that since it automatically labels rolls, I think Avrae does too, but you can simply say something like "Star, perception roll for keeping watch while traveling", post that, then enter your dice expression. For Dice Maiden specifically (just tested it fifteen seconds ago) you can label a roll by
entering your dice expression first, line breaking, then giving the roll a name. Like so:!roll 1d20+2Star, Initiative roll[Enter/Submit]The bot will spit out the associated roll, and the DM will know what that roll was for. If it matters for a given roll, anyways.
Just tested it again, and Dice Maiden is convenient enough to pick up on a command no matter where you enter it in a given post. So long as the roll command is in its own line with no other text, you can write whatever else you'd like in the post. As follows:Example 1:
!roll 1d20+2
Star, Initiative
[Enter/Submit]
Example 2:
Rolling initiative for Star
!roll 1d20+2
[Enter/Submit]
Invalid Example:
Rolling Initiative for Star !roll 1d20+2
[Enter/Submit]
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