For financial analysts, the question now is "is Hasboro a good buy". For anyone who is following this story, the answer is a clear NO.
The financial for January will not be published and distributed until April. So Hasboro does have a good two months to turn this around. Up until that point the true value of the stock will be speculative. Bears will see the stock lowering and Bulls will see it increasing. Until the Jan-Mar financials come out in April it's just reading tea leaves. The stock price will go up and down until then according to what is covered in the financial press. The more the financial press coveres the OGL debacle, the lower the stock will go and the less capitol WOTC can claim it has - unless they can reverse it.
This discussion today is clearly an attempt to stop the speculative price of Hasboro stock from falling due to coverage of this story.
If all you folks who keep saying you're leaving would kindly just do so, that'd be great. Then the rest of us can focus on trying to clean up the mess. Just please stop clogging the Forums with your "I am Spartacus" claims.
bye.
Who's forcing you to pay attention?? And isn't that the person you should be crying about??
For financial analysts, the question now is "is Hasboro a good buy". For anyone who is following this story, the answer is a clear NO.
The financial for January will not be published and distributed until April. So Hasboro does have a good two months to turn this around. Up until that point the true value of the stock will be speculative. Bears will see the stock lowering and Bulls will see it increasing. Until the Jan-Mar financials come out in April it's just reading tea leaves. The stock price will go up and down until then according to what is covered in the financial press. The more the financial press coveres the OGL debacle, the lower the stock will go and the less capitol WOTC can claim it has - unless they can reverse it.
This discussion today is clearly an attempt to stop the speculative price of Hasboro stock from falling due to coverage of this story.
Looks like Hasbro's fiscal year-end is 12/31. That means that the first window into how all of this is affecting their financial outlook will be in the middle of February when they give guidance for 2023. If all of the subscription cancellations are truly hurting them right now, they will most likely issue guidance that reflects this. That's when there may be concern and potential movement in the stock. If they don't turn it around by the end of March (really, before that to affect the Q1 results) it'll will impact their results and be reflected in their updated guide for the rest of the year.
My larger point was that I'm not sure that analysts are as clued into the OGL debacle right now... to your point, maybe the smart ones are, but generally my experience is that hard-core industry business leaders and customers are ahead of the curve on this type of stuff. Analysts generally like it when a company presses it's advantage and only question that judgment when it's reflected in the financials (or forward guidance). Right now, they're probably cheering Hasbro on, as silly as that sounds.
This, all of this. The OGL only lets us use a tiny amount of content. All it does is let us copy directly from the SRD, that's it. We can still reference it and make derivative works compatible with DnD without the OGL. 90+% of 3rd party content is entirely legal without the OGL. Removing direct quotes of the SRD is all that is required to be 100% legal. Outside of the exact expression of rules in the PHB, DMG, MM, and SRD, along with names of places, characters, settings specific to the DnD brand. Nothing in their books is copyrightable. As the SRD makes versions of spells without specific character names, those can all be used. We don't need the OGL. Wizards needs the OGL. The OGL is the main reason DnD isn't dead.
I personally don't even care if they stay as long as they sign the ORC or revise OGL 1.0 to be irrevocable, perpetual and unchanging agreement. Personally I don't care much about their supposed plans for $30/month sub tiers. I will just move to a better service. But if D&D goes through with OGL 2.0 we will lose all the 3PP that made it amazing and to be frank, WotC own material has been worse than trash lately.
Except, not really. We don't need the OGL, Wizards needs the OGL. We can continue to publish 3rd party content compatible with DnD, we just can't quote their content directly anymore. More so, their push is likely to catch regulator attention as violations of Sherman Anti-Trust laws as they are very much trying to make TTRPG's into a DnD monopoly.
It is absolutely reasonable to be upset, but as of yet no actual harm has been done to anyone other than WOTC's reputation.
That's not true, unfortunately.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, of people working on content for the Dungeon Masters' Guild are now having to ask themselves whether there will be any market for their products in the future. DriveThruRPG creators are having to ask themselves whether the products they're working on will even be permitted a month from now. Some third-party publishers, like Kobold and MCDM, were already planning pivots to new RPG systems of their own, but those that weren't are in limbo, uncertain whether all the assumptions that went into their business plans still hold. Freelance artists are losing commissions they were counting on—this is happening right now. Makers of fancy dice have to guess whether there will be enough movement away from D&D toward other systems that they'll need to produce sets other than the standard seven-die polyhedral set. It's not hard for a company like Chessex to simply change its production numbers to offer mass-produced dice in different combinations; it's a lot harder for a company like, say, Dispel Dice or Everything Dice, or even a mid-tier producer like Die Hard Dice. Vendors who sell at conventions have to wonder what this chaos is going to do to con attendance.
We need a return to stability ASAP, which is only going to happen if (a) WotC sincerely acknowledges that it's in a negotiation now and must enter that negotiation in good faith, and (b) creators are willing to come to the table and engage as well. Everyone's next RPG book purchase should be Getting to Yes.
Not to mention, even those of us who are still confident that there will be a market for third-party D&D products have to deal with our own feelings of disillusionment, which makes it harder for us to work up the enthusiasm to do the work we need to do. It's the kind of thing that has an impact not just on our mental health but potentially on our family finances.
Also, think about all the creative folks at WotC who had nothing to do with these moves by management—who in many cases, in fact, are wholeheartedly opposed to these moves—and who now have to deal with the unfocused ire of thousands of irate creators, players and irresponsible YouTubers, not to mention the possibility that they might lose their jobs if the controversy does too much damage to WotC's profitability.
It is absolutely reasonable to be upset, but as of yet no actual harm has been done to anyone other than WOTC's reputation.
That's not true, unfortunately.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, of people working on content for the Dungeon Masters' Guild are now having to ask themselves whether there will be any market for their products in the future. DriveThruRPG creators are having to ask themselves whether the products they're working on will even be permitted a month from now. Some third-party publishers, like Kobold and MCDM, were already planning pivots to new RPG systems of their own, but those that weren't are in limbo, uncertain whether all the assumptions that went into their business plans still hold. Freelance artists are losing commissions they were counting on—this is happening right now. Makers of fancy dice have to guess whether there will be enough movement away from D&D toward other systems that they'll need to produce sets other than the standard seven-die polyhedral set. It's not hard for a company like Chessex to simply change its production numbers to offer mass-produced dice in different combinations; it's a lot harder for a company like, say, Dispel Dice or Everything Dice, or even a mid-tier producer like Die Hard Dice. Vendors who sell at conventions have to wonder what this chaos is going to do to con attendance.
We need a return to stability ASAP, which is only going to happen if (a) WotC sincerely acknowledges that it's in a negotiation now and must enter that negotiation in good faith, and (b) creators are willing to come to the table and engage as well. Everyone's next RPG book purchase should be Getting to Yes.
None of what you have described constitutes harm. uncertainty yes, but the world in general is uncertain. WotC could shut down, be hit by a meteor, or lose their entire design team to COVID/the next pandemic and the end result would be similar if not the same. If this rolls out and if those folks lose their jobs, sources of income, etc...then that could be considered harm but right now that is all theoretical and becoming less likely by the day. If your job, income, or other necessary component of your life depends on another entity allowing you to use their IP, this should not be a worry that is new for you.
I hate to say this, and I know you are mad, but your letter is not going to convince Hasbro/WOTC of anything other than you are a lost cause. It is absolutely reasonable to be upset, but as of yet no actual harm has been done to anyone other than WOTC's reputation. Believe it or not, neither you, any other community member here, nor any 3rd party developer have been harmed by anything that has occurred to date. If you want actual change, you will need to put forth reasonable expectations, and be prepared to deescalate your own rhetoric and actions in response. You don't seem willing to do that, honestly even if every one of your (fairly unlikely) demands are met, I don't expect you to be satisfied.
You know I've tried to stay out of this whole debate, but see I see a whole lot of people like you saying things like this.
And to sum up the response to it, it's this:
Yeah they can view as many people as they want as a lost cause and just ignore them. Once you have enough lost causes - you don't have customers anymore. And I guarantee you a handful of people will not keep it afloat.
A lot of the people that are here right now are tourists. What's a tourist you ask? Someone who sees X thing being very popular and talked about so they ooh and ah like they're on vacation, then they go to check out the monuments of these things and they're interested until they aren't.
Then the tourist moves on to the next big flashy vacation tonight and ahh at the new monument that isn't the old Monument they were looking at 5 minutes ago.
You see, at my workplace, we have this giant Banner hanging from the roof that says do it right the first time on one side. Guess what the other side says?
"Make your customers happy, or someone else will."
(leaving out the physical, as no one is threatening anyone with an iron pipe to my knowledge). In my opinion, harm would be actual loss of income, actual damage to reputation (so far only suffered by WotC, not any other entity that I am aware of). You know, things that would stand up in court. Rough negotiations over email and in writing aren't harm.
What we want as a community, is for heads to roll, specifically the people on top who “See customers as an obstacle to profits.” If Hasbro inc publicly fires the CEO, and other corporate managers,
For goodness sake, I get why people are angered by this fiasco and attitude from Hasbro but think what you are asking for. The Hasbro CEO and corporate managers are people with families etc and you want their professional lives ruined over this? That just seems vindictive.
I hate to say this, and I know you are mad, but your letter is not going to convince Hasbro/WOTC of anything other than you are a lost cause. It is absolutely reasonable to be upset, but as of yet no actual harm has been done to anyone other than WOTC's reputation. Believe it or not, neither you, any other community member here, nor any 3rd party developer have been harmed by anything that has occurred to date. If you want actual change, you will need to put forth reasonable expectations, and be prepared to deescalate your own rhetoric and actions in response. You don't seem willing to do that, honestly even if every one of your (fairly unlikely) demands are met, I don't expect you to be satisfied.
You know I've tried to stay out of this whole debate, but see I see a whole lot of people like you saying things like this.
And to sum up the response to it, it's this:
Yeah they can view as many people as they want as a lost cause and just ignore them. Once you have enough lost causes - you don't have customers anymore. And I guarantee you a handful of people will not keep it afloat.
A lot of the people that are here right now are tourists. What's a tourist you ask? Someone who sees X thing being very popular and talked about so they ooh and ah like they're on vacation, then they go to check out the monuments of these things and they're interested until they aren't.
Then the tourist moves on to the next big flashy vacation tonight and ahh at the new monument that isn't the old Monument they were looking at 5 minutes ago.
You see, at my workplace, we have this giant Banner hanging from the roof that says do it right the first time on one side. Guess what the other side says?
"Make your customers happy, or someone else will."
Yes - someone understands human group dynamics.
Here's how it works - up to a certain point a thing is "not popular". D&D up until very recently just wasn't cool.
Then some cool people get on board and suddenly the popularity shoots up dramatically.
But - if the cool people suddenly say "It's not cool anymore" - then it goes back to the first stage (not popular)
WOTC can go very quickly from being the cool thing to the uncool thing - because by human nature 60% of the population are just followers and will jump onto whatever the cool people say is cool.
The ONLY reliable TTRPG customers are the ones who have played regardless of if it was cool or not cool and regardless of what the cool kids are doing or not doing.
And this is the very base that WOTC is driving away right now.
(leaving out the physical, as no one is threatening anyone with an iron pipe to my knowledge). In my opinion, harm would be actual loss of income, actual damage to reputation (so far only suffered by WotC, not any other entity that I am aware of). You know, things that would stand up in court. Rough negotiations over email and in writing aren't harm.
Did you miss the part where I mentioned freelance artists who have had commissions withdrawn?
(leaving out the physical, as no one is threatening anyone with an iron pipe to my knowledge). In my opinion, harm would be actual loss of income, actual damage to reputation (so far only suffered by WotC, not any other entity that I am aware of). You know, things that would stand up in court. Rough negotiations over email and in writing aren't harm.
Did you miss the part where I mentioned freelance artists who have had commissions withdrawn?
Do you have an example of someone whose commission was withdrawn, or are you making a general comment on a hypothetical? Even so, that would not meet the standard of harm in a court of law. uncertainty and rash decisions made due to rumor and news are part of the creative work environment (I work in a creative field as an architect, and I also am subject to the whims of the market, rumors, and changes in contracts that cause me to lose income; I don't have the right to call it "harm" or pursue it in court; Its part of the nature of the business.
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No, no no
That's not how it works.
What kind of idiot thinks you can only play one game and have to be 100% loyal to one company and never play any other games? lol.
This has to be the stupidest kind of mentality that got WOTC into this problem.
For financial analysts, the question now is "is Hasboro a good buy". For anyone who is following this story, the answer is a clear NO.
The financial for January will not be published and distributed until April. So Hasboro does have a good two months to turn this around. Up until that point the true value of the stock will be speculative. Bears will see the stock lowering and Bulls will see it increasing. Until the Jan-Mar financials come out in April it's just reading tea leaves. The stock price will go up and down until then according to what is covered in the financial press. The more the financial press coveres the OGL debacle, the lower the stock will go and the less capitol WOTC can claim it has - unless they can reverse it.
This discussion today is clearly an attempt to stop the speculative price of Hasboro stock from falling due to coverage of this story.
Pretty much agree with this. PR statements aren't going to fix this. WOTC has lost credibility.
Who's forcing you to pay attention?? And isn't that the person you should be crying about??
Looks like Hasbro's fiscal year-end is 12/31. That means that the first window into how all of this is affecting their financial outlook will be in the middle of February when they give guidance for 2023. If all of the subscription cancellations are truly hurting them right now, they will most likely issue guidance that reflects this. That's when there may be concern and potential movement in the stock. If they don't turn it around by the end of March (really, before that to affect the Q1 results) it'll will impact their results and be reflected in their updated guide for the rest of the year.
My larger point was that I'm not sure that analysts are as clued into the OGL debacle right now... to your point, maybe the smart ones are, but generally my experience is that hard-core industry business leaders and customers are ahead of the curve on this type of stuff. Analysts generally like it when a company presses it's advantage and only question that judgment when it's reflected in the financials (or forward guidance). Right now, they're probably cheering Hasbro on, as silly as that sounds.
This, all of this.
The OGL only lets us use a tiny amount of content. All it does is let us copy directly from the SRD, that's it. We can still reference it and make derivative works compatible with DnD without the OGL. 90+% of 3rd party content is entirely legal without the OGL. Removing direct quotes of the SRD is all that is required to be 100% legal. Outside of the exact expression of rules in the PHB, DMG, MM, and SRD, along with names of places, characters, settings specific to the DnD brand. Nothing in their books is copyrightable.
As the SRD makes versions of spells without specific character names, those can all be used.
We don't need the OGL. Wizards needs the OGL. The OGL is the main reason DnD isn't dead.
Except, not really. We don't need the OGL, Wizards needs the OGL. We can continue to publish 3rd party content compatible with DnD, we just can't quote their content directly anymore.
More so, their push is likely to catch regulator attention as violations of Sherman Anti-Trust laws as they are very much trying to make TTRPG's into a DnD monopoly.
That's not true, unfortunately.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, of people working on content for the Dungeon Masters' Guild are now having to ask themselves whether there will be any market for their products in the future. DriveThruRPG creators are having to ask themselves whether the products they're working on will even be permitted a month from now. Some third-party publishers, like Kobold and MCDM, were already planning pivots to new RPG systems of their own, but those that weren't are in limbo, uncertain whether all the assumptions that went into their business plans still hold. Freelance artists are losing commissions they were counting on—this is happening right now. Makers of fancy dice have to guess whether there will be enough movement away from D&D toward other systems that they'll need to produce sets other than the standard seven-die polyhedral set. It's not hard for a company like Chessex to simply change its production numbers to offer mass-produced dice in different combinations; it's a lot harder for a company like, say, Dispel Dice or Everything Dice, or even a mid-tier producer like Die Hard Dice. Vendors who sell at conventions have to wonder what this chaos is going to do to con attendance.
We need a return to stability ASAP, which is only going to happen if (a) WotC sincerely acknowledges that it's in a negotiation now and must enter that negotiation in good faith, and (b) creators are willing to come to the table and engage as well. Everyone's next RPG book purchase should be Getting to Yes.
Author of The Monsters Know What They're Doing: Combat Tactics for Dungeon Masters, MOAR! Monsters Know What They're Doing, How to Defend Your Lair and Making Enemies: Monster Design Inspiration for Tabletop Roleplaying Games.
Not to mention, even those of us who are still confident that there will be a market for third-party D&D products have to deal with our own feelings of disillusionment, which makes it harder for us to work up the enthusiasm to do the work we need to do. It's the kind of thing that has an impact not just on our mental health but potentially on our family finances.
Also, think about all the creative folks at WotC who had nothing to do with these moves by management—who in many cases, in fact, are wholeheartedly opposed to these moves—and who now have to deal with the unfocused ire of thousands of irate creators, players and irresponsible YouTubers, not to mention the possibility that they might lose their jobs if the controversy does too much damage to WotC's profitability.
Harm has absolutely been done.
Author of The Monsters Know What They're Doing: Combat Tactics for Dungeon Masters, MOAR! Monsters Know What They're Doing, How to Defend Your Lair and Making Enemies: Monster Design Inspiration for Tabletop Roleplaying Games.
None of what you have described constitutes harm. uncertainty yes, but the world in general is uncertain. WotC could shut down, be hit by a meteor, or lose their entire design team to COVID/the next pandemic and the end result would be similar if not the same. If this rolls out and if those folks lose their jobs, sources of income, etc...then that could be considered harm but right now that is all theoretical and becoming less likely by the day. If your job, income, or other necessary component of your life depends on another entity allowing you to use their IP, this should not be a worry that is new for you.
You know I've tried to stay out of this whole debate, but see I see a whole lot of people like you saying things like this.
And to sum up the response to it, it's this:
Yeah they can view as many people as they want as a lost cause and just ignore them. Once you have enough lost causes - you don't have customers anymore. And I guarantee you a handful of people will not keep it afloat.
A lot of the people that are here right now are tourists. What's a tourist you ask? Someone who sees X thing being very popular and talked about so they ooh and ah like they're on vacation, then they go to check out the monuments of these things and they're interested until they aren't.
Then the tourist moves on to the next big flashy vacation tonight and ahh at the new monument that isn't the old Monument they were looking at 5 minutes ago.
You see, at my workplace, we have this giant Banner hanging from the roof that says do it right the first time on one side. Guess what the other side says?
"Make your customers happy, or someone else will."
Occassional Dungeon Master.
What, in your opinion, does constitute harm?
Author of The Monsters Know What They're Doing: Combat Tactics for Dungeon Masters, MOAR! Monsters Know What They're Doing, How to Defend Your Lair and Making Enemies: Monster Design Inspiration for Tabletop Roleplaying Games.
(leaving out the physical, as no one is threatening anyone with an iron pipe to my knowledge). In my opinion, harm would be actual loss of income, actual damage to reputation (so far only suffered by WotC, not any other entity that I am aware of). You know, things that would stand up in court. Rough negotiations over email and in writing aren't harm.
For goodness sake, I get why people are angered by this fiasco and attitude from Hasbro but think what you are asking for. The Hasbro CEO and corporate managers are people with families etc and you want their professional lives ruined over this? That just seems vindictive.
Yes - someone understands human group dynamics.
Here's how it works - up to a certain point a thing is "not popular". D&D up until very recently just wasn't cool.
Then some cool people get on board and suddenly the popularity shoots up dramatically.
But - if the cool people suddenly say "It's not cool anymore" - then it goes back to the first stage (not popular)
WOTC can go very quickly from being the cool thing to the uncool thing - because by human nature 60% of the population are just followers and will jump onto whatever the cool people say is cool.
The ONLY reliable TTRPG customers are the ones who have played regardless of if it was cool or not cool and regardless of what the cool kids are doing or not doing.
And this is the very base that WOTC is driving away right now.
Good luck with that.
Did you miss the part where I mentioned freelance artists who have had commissions withdrawn?
Author of The Monsters Know What They're Doing: Combat Tactics for Dungeon Masters, MOAR! Monsters Know What They're Doing, How to Defend Your Lair and Making Enemies: Monster Design Inspiration for Tabletop Roleplaying Games.
Do you have an example of someone whose commission was withdrawn, or are you making a general comment on a hypothetical? Even so, that would not meet the standard of harm in a court of law. uncertainty and rash decisions made due to rumor and news are part of the creative work environment (I work in a creative field as an architect, and I also am subject to the whims of the market, rumors, and changes in contracts that cause me to lose income; I don't have the right to call it "harm" or pursue it in court; Its part of the nature of the business.