So, I'm part way through mapping out the loose structure of a future Campaign. To be clear, while I'm going to give you my ideas they are intentionally loose so that I can be flexible and improvise around player choice. That means locations and encounters will differ but in general it'll give an idea of what I'm laying down for my players. I tend to work in Acts and Chapters for my planning. Act 1 is roughly Levels 1-5 and a chapter represents the challenges, missions and suchlike that are planned to be presented to the party at each level.
The feedback I'm looking for here though is if this plan feels too tough, too challenging. Make no mistake I want a more difficult campaign going forward for the group. I do also grant XP or milestones to the party if they solve a challenge in ways other than combat. Keep in mind too that Dragon of Icespire Peak has some particularly challenging encounters at first level (Manticore at CR3 for example), basically the players are now experienced enough that they don't need hand holding. The monsters listed at each level won't all be fought at the same time, nor will they all have to be defeated in combat, but these are the challenges I'm putting in their way. The monsters I currently intend to throw at the party are seen below in the spoiler tags. I'm also working to a modified XP ladder which is also listed below in another spoiler tag. It is these encounter/monster/challenges I'd like thoughts on.
The backstory here is that the players are recruited by a minor lord in the court of the City's ruler. The city is largely Human, Dwarf, and Gnomish, somewhat xenophobic and wary of peoples from other backgrounds (elves descending from fey, tiefling descending from fiends etc). This minor lord has noticed that within her district of the city there seems to be an uptick in thugs extorting the civilians. There are rumours of a black market in the district and it is this that the party are recruited and assembled to
Level 1 - Mission 'Adventurers Wanted' - Prove your skills and ability to work as a group toward a common goal. Then find evidence of the black market in the district, once done infiltrate and find out how the illicit goods are getting into the city. If possible capture one of the black marketeers for interrogation.
Level 2 - Mission 'Death Gnoll' - If a smuggler was captured for interrogation, they reveal the method by which goods are entering the city. If not, the party are tasked with tracking covertly a smuggler. This would lead the party to an old tunnel system created long ago by Gnolls who attempted to sapp the walls of the city. On the other end of the tunnel system is a concealed entryway on the side of a hill range. Plenty of cover and signs of regular traffic. The party are ordered to waylay, destroy, or steal the shipment to starve the black market of supply.
Level 3 - Mission 'Ad Ignorantium' - The party are granted some downtime, but are recalled when grain very close to being able to be harvested is seen withering a dying in the fields surrounding the city. The party are tasked with investigating if there is any foul play. The way they find out what's happening will vary according to their approach but ultimately should lead the party to visits by necrotic spirits that are withering all the crops that supply the city. In turn the party are ordered to search the nearby graveyards to track down the only thing that could be behind such deeds - a Necromancer. In actuality it's a former noble now stripped of their title and taking revenge on the city with the aid of a magic item.
Level 4 - Mission 'Wise Man's Son' - Party are granted an audience with the Ruler's Court should they succeed in capturing or eliminating the former Noble. Should the former Noble escape, the party are still able to have reported back (I hope) and a detatchment of town guards are dispatched. Either during the audience, or during the downtime having reported back the ruler's son is kidnapped. There are traces of fey magic and a Boggle was slain by a guard before it could escape. The party are sent to the nearby forests where a nomadic tribe of Elves, Gnomes and the like make camp. Being of Fey ancestry, the ruler orders the party to find a way to retrieve their son, or at the very least information from the Elves that might help. The upshot is that someone in the Court made a deal with a Fey...the party must either make their own deal or eliminate the fey with whom the deal was struck to rescue the child.
My suggestion would be to run your encounters through an encounter calculator of some kind to see how easy or hard they are projected to be. Gut reaction seeing what you have planned may be too hard for the levels they are set for. But maybe not if you are willing to pump the breaks here and there or have encounters have goals more complex than "kill all the baddies."
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"The mongoose blew out its candle and was asleep in bed before the room went dark." —Llanowar fable
My suggestion would be to run your encounters through an encounter calculator of some kind to see how easy or hard they are projected to be. Gut reaction seeing what you have planned may be too hard for the levels they are set for. But maybe not if you are willing to pump the breaks here and there or have encounters have goals more complex than "kill all the baddies."
So, being brutal, the encounter calculators do not work at all. They're overly conservative in my experience. CR just doesn't really take into account a whole load of options so it's not just an imperfect solution, it's flat out not a solution. Loadouts, subclass, feats, mundane items, and even tactics can swing encounters entirely. So, these kind of automated tools are no substitute for the experience of other GMs.
As I mention, I don't expect the party to hack and slash their way through the enemies. In my games all encounters allow the gain of XP or Milestone by subverting, tactically avoiding, or otherwise overcoming a challenge. And as I mentioned, in Dragon of Icespire Peak there are similar levels of challenge...many of which can actually be completely nullified through good tactics, or even using classes and options not found in Basic Rules. The manticore fight for example can be overcome by throwing the creature some meat or food to it's liking. The Orcs that attack the Dwarven Excavation are quite numerous and one would think a near deadly encounter...I've never yet in years of running it seen any level one party be taken out by the Orcs.
Speaking then to you gut reaction, which particular 'likely groupings' which would be the indidviual encounters do you think would be too much of a challenge?
Each encounter looks, to me, survivable or winnable, by a ready, loaded group of 4/5. That said, early on, the PC have very few resources and are highly likely to spam through them quickly, as some of the encounters could, on a couple bad dice rolls, go VERY bad very fast. If you intend them to hit each encounter fresh and fully loaded, it's likely worth a try. I, personally, would be ready to GOD a roll if things got too swingy on early encounters. At early levels, 2 decent smacks drops most PC's, so a series of super bad rolls for the party VS super lucky rolls for the enemies has you looking a TPK in the face sooner than you may want. Those emergency intervention moments don't occur once the players get a couple levels and a few HP to absorb a run of lousy rolls.
As for the usefulness of encounter tools, I find the DDB one pretty decent up to around level 5. There, it seems the extra attacks of the martials and the new tricks casters get start tilting things pretty wildly.
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Talk to your Players.Talk to your DM. If more people used this advice, there would be 24.74% fewer threads on Tactics, Rules and DM discussions.
To be more clear on the examples I considered problematic:
Level 1, encounter 2
A bandit captain has 3 attacks at +5 to hit; hitting twice will drop a typical PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 (a reasonable median value) is 9.
A spy has 2 attacks at +4 to hit, but it has a good chance of being able to use sneak attack, and one hit with sneak attack damage will again probably drop a PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 is 5 without sneak attack, 10 with; call it 8 overall.
That's 25 expected damage per round; typical level 1 hit points is about 10, so two rounds to take out five PCs. Of course, things like healing word exist but are not great against large numbers of small attacks like this, and reasonable focus firing plus use of resources will probably take out a spy every round, but even so that's something like 43 damage over the first two rounds, and then you have maybe two remaining PCs against a bandit captain who's basically untouched, and the party has used up all of its resources.
Level 2, encounter 3
A master thief basically oneshots a PC if he can get sneak attack off, and with cunning action, stealth of +7, three attacks if he's in melee, and two thug allies, he's gonna get sneak attacks off.
Thugs have respectable but not amazing damage output, and they're fairly durable.
I would somewhat expect this to work like the prior fight; in the first two rounds of the fight three PCs and two thugs go down, and then the remainder of the party has to deal with the master thief. Overall it's probably slightly easier, the master thief isn't great by himself, thugs aren't as dangerous as spies, and party's resources have gone up, but it doesn't take much bad luck to turn this into a TPK.
This varies somewhat depending on how high stats the PCs have, but if they can survive these two encounters at levels 1 and 2, all the level 3 and 4 encounters will be cakewalks.
To be more clear on the examples I considered problematic:
Level 1, encounter 2
A bandit captain has 3 attacks at +5 to hit; hitting twice will drop a typical PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 (a reasonable median value) is 9.
A spy has 2 attacks at +4 to hit, but it has a good chance of being able to use sneak attack, and one hit with sneak attack damage will again probably drop a PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 is 5 without sneak attack, 10 with; call it 8 overall.
That's 25 expected damage per round; typical level 1 hit points is about 10, so two rounds to take out five PCs. Of course, things like healing word exist but are not great against large numbers of small attacks like this, and reasonable focus firing plus use of resources will probably take out a spy every round, but even so that's something like 43 damage over the first two rounds, and then you have maybe two remaining PCs against a bandit captain who's basically untouched, and the party has used up all of its resources.
Level 2, encounter 3
A master thief basically oneshots a PC if he can get sneak attack off, and with cunning action, stealth of +7, three attacks if he's in melee, and two thug allies, he's gonna get sneak attacks off.
Thugs have respectable but not amazing damage output, and they're fairly durable.
I would somewhat expect this to work like the prior fight; in the first two rounds of the fight three PCs and two thugs go down, and then the remainder of the party has to deal with the master thief. Overall it's probably slightly easier, the master thief isn't great by himself, thugs aren't as dangerous as spies, and party's resources have gone up, but it doesn't take much bad luck to turn this into a TPK.
This varies somewhat depending on how high stats the PCs have, but if they can survive these two encounters at levels 1 and 2, all the level 3 and 4 encounters will be cakewalks.
Thanks for that, I think then a judicious use of environment might be called for. I'll need to plan out some environmental options that may help tip the odds a bit more into the party's favour.
I tend to try and work in height, cover, and choke points when describing the environment which can often help swing the odds. I'll have another look at these and see what I can come up with. Might even dry run them myself from both sides, see what happens.
To be more clear on the examples I considered problematic:
Level 1, encounter 2
A bandit captain has 3 attacks at +5 to hit; hitting twice will drop a typical PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 (a reasonable median value) is 9.
A spy has 2 attacks at +4 to hit, but it has a good chance of being able to use sneak attack, and one hit with sneak attack damage will again probably drop a PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 is 5 without sneak attack, 10 with; call it 8 overall.
That's 25 expected damage per round; typical level 1 hit points is about 10, so two rounds to take out five PCs. Of course, things like healing word exist but are not great against large numbers of small attacks like this, and reasonable focus firing plus use of resources will probably take out a spy every round, but even so that's something like 43 damage over the first two rounds, and then you have maybe two remaining PCs against a bandit captain who's basically untouched, and the party has used up all of its resources.
Level 2, encounter 3
A master thief basically oneshots a PC if he can get sneak attack off, and with cunning action, stealth of +7, three attacks if he's in melee, and two thug allies, he's gonna get sneak attacks off.
Thugs have respectable but not amazing damage output, and they're fairly durable.
I would somewhat expect this to work like the prior fight; in the first two rounds of the fight three PCs and two thugs go down, and then the remainder of the party has to deal with the master thief. Overall it's probably slightly easier, the master thief isn't great by himself, thugs aren't as dangerous as spies, and party's resources have gone up, but it doesn't take much bad luck to turn this into a TPK.
This varies somewhat depending on how high stats the PCs have, but if they can survive these two encounters at levels 1 and 2, all the level 3 and 4 encounters will be cakewalks.
Yeah I agree with this. My biggest concern at low levels are monsters that deal enough damage to kill a player in a single hit because it really sucks to be taken out with out having a turn.
It could be interesting to do an encounter at level 1 where the spy are unarmed or using some kind of shiv but still attack with dex and have sneak attack. I know technically breaks the rules but it means they'll do either 2 or 2d6+2 damage ( average 9 ) which at level 1 will swing them from trivial to barely lethal hits. This could get a fun shock out of players where a seemingly harmless enemy gets an unexpected spike of damage but it will still be low enough that it might not one hit a player. Unarmed attacks also have a better excuse for being not lethal at level 1 and you can explain it away with the spys trying to keep a low profile. It's not something I've tried but it definitely sounds compelling
To be more clear on the examples I considered problematic:
Level 1, encounter 2
A bandit captain has 3 attacks at +5 to hit; hitting twice will drop a typical PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 (a reasonable median value) is 9.
A spy has 2 attacks at +4 to hit, but it has a good chance of being able to use sneak attack, and one hit with sneak attack damage will again probably drop a PC. Expected damage vs AC 16 is 5 without sneak attack, 10 with; call it 8 overall.
That's 25 expected damage per round; typical level 1 hit points is about 10, so two rounds to take out five PCs. Of course, things like healing word exist but are not great against large numbers of small attacks like this, and reasonable focus firing plus use of resources will probably take out a spy every round, but even so that's something like 43 damage over the first two rounds, and then you have maybe two remaining PCs against a bandit captain who's basically untouched, and the party has used up all of its resources.
Level 2, encounter 3
A master thief basically oneshots a PC if he can get sneak attack off, and with cunning action, stealth of +7, three attacks if he's in melee, and two thug allies, he's gonna get sneak attacks off.
Thugs have respectable but not amazing damage output, and they're fairly durable.
I would somewhat expect this to work like the prior fight; in the first two rounds of the fight three PCs and two thugs go down, and then the remainder of the party has to deal with the master thief. Overall it's probably slightly easier, the master thief isn't great by himself, thugs aren't as dangerous as spies, and party's resources have gone up, but it doesn't take much bad luck to turn this into a TPK.
This varies somewhat depending on how high stats the PCs have, but if they can survive these two encounters at levels 1 and 2, all the level 3 and 4 encounters will be cakewalks.
Yeah I agree with this. My biggest concern at low levels are monsters that deal enough damage to kill a player in a single hit because it really sucks to be taken out with out having a turn.
It could be interesting to do an encounter at level 1 where the spy are unarmed or using some kind of shiv but still attack with dex and have sneak attack. I know technically breaks the rules but it means they'll do either 2 or 2d6+2 damage ( average 9 ) which at level 1 will swing them from trivial to barely lethal hits. This could get a fun shock out of players where a seemingly harmless enemy gets an unexpected spike of damage but it will still be low enough that it might not one hit a player. Unarmed attacks also have a better excuse for being not lethal at level 1 and you can explain it away with the spys trying to keep a low profile. It's not something I've tried but it definitely sounds compelling
Okay, so I understand your point, but let me reiterate - Dragon of Icespire Peak has a first level encounter with a Manticore. That thing makes three attacks per turn all with +5 to hit, and all dealing an expected average above 6 for an average total per round of 20 damage. Add into this equation it's Tail Spike attack with a 100ft range and that thing is nasty! To date, I've never had a party die or TPK to that encounter. I've had front liners drop to unconsciousness.
Another possible Level 1 encounter is Dwarven Excavation where you can encounter Ochre Jelly which are nasty so-and-so's able to split in two, attack for an average of 12 with a +4 to hit. Factor in Spider Climb and their ability to squeeze through 1 inch openings. Then finish that off with an Immunity to Slashing damage! Oh and this area concludes with a surprise Orc Attack with a number of Orcs equal to the party size and 'looking for a new lair and fight to the death.'
Finally, the last potential Level 1 area in DoIP is Gnomengarde, equipped with some potentially deadly traps (autoloading crossbow platform anyone). Played as written the operator decides to test this invention out on the party and does not stop attacking until either her invention is destroyed or she can't see anyone. She cannot be reasoned with, bribed, or swayed by alternate tactics. It hits with a Heavy Crossbow +5 to hit. A little further into this area is a Mimic attack. Granted no multiattack there but Mimics used to be scary at low levels for a reason. You had no clue they were coming and it is, as written indestinguishable from an ordinary object. Read that again - as written the mimic is indestinguishable - no check is going to allow you to determine an object is really a mimic. There are good reasons many players see these as cheap shot enemies. Then past a few more guards, checks and exploration options there is the Spinning Blade trap - DC 15 DEX saving throw, and 4d8 damage on a failure or half as much on a success. There are of course ways past this (mage hand), but that might not be something a newbie player would immediately think of.
Oh, and all this assumes that the GM didn't roll the location of Cryovain the Young White Dragon to be wherever the party are currently leaving/arriving...which would make the party a potential target of the Dragon who has three +7 attacks not to mention it's Cold Breath attack.
These are Core Starter adventures and utilise for the most part basic rules. Yet, I've never seen a TPK to any of these encounters - all of which I've seen in actual games over the last several years.
With all that in mind, and forgive me if I've sounded argumentative - that's not my intention - but how different do you folks consider my proposed encounters to be to the three location examples that I've laid out from an adventure designed for newbies? In that context is my proposed set of encounters really that harsh still?
I don't know how many charcters there will be but assuming 4, then my observations are that for most part the encounters are good challenge but watch for;
Level 1 - Mission 'Adventurers Wanted' 1 Bandit Captain with 2 Spy will be a hard encounter, perhaps even deadly if they're unlucky, so there's risk of TPK as 1st level characters are very fragile.
Level 2 - Mission 'Death Gnoll' 1 Master Thief with 2 Thug will also be a hard encounter for 2nd level party and there is even a chance the Master Thief outright kill at least one character.
Level 3 - Mission 'Ad Ignorantium' 2 Mummy should be a hard encounter for a 3rd level party, deadly if some become paralyzed. If they survive some can still die in the following days due to the Mummy curse unless they can remove it.
Level 4 - Mission 'Wise Man's Son' The encounter with the Cambion may be hard, especially if it charms a character and the rest don't have ways to make magic attacks somehow.
The group is currently five members, I'll actually be looking for a sixth. Sorry I thought I included that in my first post.
Thanks for picking up on the lasting effects of the Mummy too! I'll definitely have to work in somewhere in the city where they can get the mummy rot curse removed!
I ran my group of 3 through an introduction to a new campaign I'm starting last night. They had 2 encounters, one with 3 Bandits and 1 with 2 Blink Dogs. Encounter builder ranked both as Deadly and they nearly were. Group is a Fighter, Monk and Druid. Monk and Druid, at level 1, running at 9 HP. Essentially any hit put them in a spot they would, all but surely, go down on a second hit. Careful application of attacks (I played the enemies that they were trying to take down everyone at once, so spread out the hits) was a large part of why they didn't all die.
At the end of the blink Dogs, the 3 of them shared 5 HP. Monk was at 1, Druid and Fighter both at 2. Action economy was decent, but the dogs rolled good to hit and the fighter struggled in the 1st 2 rounds. Again, an example of how a round of bad dice can turn almost any level 1 encounter into a TPK.
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Talk to your Players.Talk to your DM. If more people used this advice, there would be 24.74% fewer threads on Tactics, Rules and DM discussions.
For difficult encounters, it makes a huge difference if the PC's can achieve surprise. It is, however, very difficult to communicate to players that should they fail to achieve surprise, they should propably run away. Simple concepts like 'use cover' or 'stack your modifiers' seem to be very hard to solidify in the minds of players, so caution is advisable when planning on players making rational choices.
My best example is from Shadowrun. After explaining the above to a group of players - literally seconds later - one player stated 'my character leaps on top of the van, and fires both his SMG's at the drones'. He miraculuously failed to make any impact what so ever (which truly was unlucky) at which point the drones in question fired back, exploding him into nothing.
Now, he could have shot from cover - no problem. And had he done so, his character wouldn't have died. Oh well. We didn't see him again, but the rest of the group learned to use cover.
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Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
For difficult encounters, it makes a huge difference if the PC's can achieve surprise. It is, however, very difficult to communicate to players that should they fail to achieve surprise, they should propably run away. Simple concepts like 'use cover' or 'stack your modifiers' seem to be very hard to solidify in the minds of players, so caution is advisable when planning on players making rational choices.
My best example is from Shadowrun. After explaining the above to a group of players - literally seconds later - one player stated 'my character leaps on top of the van, and fires both his SMG's at the drones'. He miraculuously failed to make any impact what so ever (which truly was unlucky) at which point the drones in question fired back, exploding him into nothing.
Now, he could have shot from cover - no problem. And had he done so, his character wouldn't have died. Oh well. We didn't see him again, but the rest of the group learned to use cover.
I think this really well sums up my feeling on difficult encounters too. I try to litter my encounter locations with what I call 'tactical debris'. Environmental elements that the PCs can utilise to gain an upper hand. Dungeons can be great locations...if players utilise the connecting corridors to their advantage. To player choices, yeah it can be a long hard road getting players to consider an encounter in a way other than 'let's kill them'. Getting PCs to realise they should try to egress or retreat, or even just hold off the attack until the situation is in their favour is not the easiest road to tread.
I do, it is worth noting adapt my encounter lists and even the plans according to the group. I currently run two games both set in the same world but the stories that the PCs have woved have been entirely different. For one group I knew that their playstyle allowed for me to point them in the direction of the enemy stronghold early game. When they tried to challenge the guards, their hireling NPC was murdered in one shot. Though angry, when the enemy gave the the chance to leave with their lives, the party took it. However, had I done this with the other group, they'd have fought to the death. So I never pointed them in that direction. Instead, they got some different quests, different challenges.
The right plan for the right group can really help with balance. And it's worth saying a thank you to everyone so far, because although I don't 100% agree with some responses, I can and will still consider them prior to deploying this planned campaign idea. It has and will help me continue to prep.
Okay, so I understand your point, but let me reiterate - Dragon of Icespire Peak has a first level encounter with a Manticore. That thing makes three attacks per turn all with +5 to hit, and all dealing an expected average above 6 for an average total per round of 20 damage. Add into this equation it's Tail Spike attack with a 100ft range and that thing is nasty! To date, I've never had a party die or TPK to that encounter. I've had front liners drop to unconsciousness.
Another possible Level 1 encounter is Dwarven Excavation where you can encounter Ochre Jelly which are nasty so-and-so's able to split in two, attack for an average of 12 with a +4 to hit. Factor in Spider Climb and their ability to squeeze through 1 inch openings. Then finish that off with an Immunity to Slashing damage! Oh and this area concludes with a surprise Orc Attack with a number of Orcs equal to the party size and 'looking for a new lair and fight to the death.'
Finally, the last potential Level 1 area in DoIP is Gnomengarde, equipped with some potentially deadly traps (autoloading crossbow platform anyone). Played as written the operator decides to test this invention out on the party and does not stop attacking until either her invention is destroyed or she can't see anyone. She cannot be reasoned with, bribed, or swayed by alternate tactics. It hits with a Heavy Crossbow +5 to hit. A little further into this area is a Mimic attack. Granted no multiattack there but Mimics used to be scary at low levels for a reason. You had no clue they were coming and it is, as written indestinguishable from an ordinary object. Read that again - as written the mimic is indestinguishable - no check is going to allow you to determine an object is really a mimic. There are good reasons many players see these as cheap shot enemies. Then past a few more guards, checks and exploration options there is the Spinning Blade trap - DC 15 DEX saving throw, and 4d8 damage on a failure or half as much on a success. There are of course ways past this (mage hand), but that might not be something a newbie player would immediately think of.
Oh, and all this assumes that the GM didn't roll the location of Cryovain the Young White Dragon to be wherever the party are currently leaving/arriving...which would make the party a potential target of the Dragon who has three +7 attacks not to mention it's Cold Breath attack.
These are Core Starter adventures and utilise for the most part basic rules. Yet, I've never seen a TPK to any of these encounters - all of which I've seen in actual games over the last several years.
With all that in mind, and forgive me if I've sounded argumentative - that's not my intention - but how different do you folks consider my proposed encounters to be to the three location examples that I've laid out from an adventure designed for newbies? In that context is my proposed set of encounters really that harsh still?
Just a couple of quick comments on your examples from DoIP.
1) Manticore. It is possible to negotiate with the Manticore and give them 25gp of treasure or some pounds of meat to get them to leave. The windmill also has small windows and defensive positions where the party can fight off the Manticore if they decide to do so. Deciding to stand out in the open and fight the Manticore face to face where it can fire off tail spikes with relative impunity is likely to be a problem.
2) The ooze is only a danger if the characters don't know anything about it. It has a speed of 10' and a reach of 5'. The characters can easily keep out of range and attack with arrows/bolts. These do piercing damage so the splitting is never an issue. Running this depends entirely on the DM and how obvious they make the weaknesses of the ooze appear to the characters so that they can figure out the trivially safe strategy to deal with it. If the party acts like lemmings and surrounds it at melee range then a TPK is certainly possible but the DM can provide some clues that maybe this isn't the best approach.
3) The Mimic is likely the largest threat in Gnomengarde. The traps may catch someone but the gnomes themselves aren't necessarily hostile. The autoloading crossbow platform can be dealt with in any number of ways. As long as the party doesn't decide to rush at it head long ... and even then, if they damage the platform or the operator then it can be stopped or reduce its efficiency.
Basically, all of the DOiP introductory adventures do have a significant risk IF the party decides to make them into straight up melee fights. All of them have elements which will more or less trivialize the encounters. How they run depends a lot on the DM, how much info they give the party and how much the DM encourages the party to look for solutions other than running into melee range and swinging a sword. As a result, deaths and TPKs from these are relatively infrequent.
However, even then, it is important to keep in mind that a crit from a manticore tail spike has the possibility of instantly killing some characters from massive damage on a bad roll depending on the hit points of the characters and any damage they may have already taken.
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In terms of your suggested encounters, it depends to some extent on the party composition, how many characters there are, what classes, whether you have used rolled stats (with good results) vs point buy for character creation. The results will also depend on what resources the party has left after going through the encounters.
In your level 1 encounters ... looking at the encounter builder to start ... party of 6 level 1 characters
1 Bugbear - trivial
4 Thugs - deadly
1 bandit captain, 2 spys - deadly
Why?
1) 4 Thugs - 32 hit points each - 2 attacks - PACK TACTICS - advantage on every attack is a big deal assuming that they act even remotely intelligently.
A typical level 1 character has 1 attack/rd, for an average of d8+3 damage or 7.5. Even if they hit every round, each thug will take an average of 5 hits to take down. If the party uses focused fire and the thugs spread out and attack different targets then it could be an easy encounter since the party should take down one thug/round. On the other hand, if the thugs gang up 2/character with pack tactics they will do an average of 11 damage each on each turn. With two/character this is 22 damage which will take down pretty much any first level character with damage left over for other targets. Result is a TPK unless the party gets lucky with a 1st level spell or two (sleep doesn't work well since the thugs have too many hit points).
However, that is typical ... if your party is composed of variant human fighters with sharpshooter, 20 dex rolled stats and the archery fighting style ... or PAM characters, or X-bow expert, or a monk with high stats and a bonus action attack (eg a monk starting with 20 dex and wis will have a 20AC with two attacks ... add in 18 con for 12 starting hit points). With high stats and multiple attacks and/or unusually high AC, the balance in a fight might well change but if you are using typical characters with point buy stats then it takes a while to whittle down opponents with ~30 hit points and the AC will allow the characters to be hit 30-50% of the time (without pack tactics being factored in).
So ... deadly encounter and possible TPK depending on the tactics used by the players and the DM. On the other hand, fewer thugs and the fight becomes easy since one of the biggest factors in combat balance is action economy. The number of characters vs the number of opponents is a critical factor in balancing any encounter.
Again, the outcome of this depends on the tactics used by the DM. If the intelligent enemies focus on specific opponents as they should then likely 2 characters will die every turn. First level hit points are typically in the 8-14 range (14 con and 6 to 12 hit points). The average damage from ONE spy attack with sneak is 12.5 damage and they have two chances to get that every round assuming that sneak attack is available. The bandit captain could do an average of 18.5 damage each round if all of their attacks hit.
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This is why these encounters have a decent chance of going sideways. Level 1 characters have few hit points and each of these opponents is capable of almost one shotting most PCs. With a high roll, the spies have a decent chance of insta killing a level 1 with massive damage. If a spy gets a crit that is almost guaranteed since the damage becomes 6d6+2 vs a level 1 character.
HOWEVER :) .. if the characters all have an AC of 18+ ... eg. good rolled stats, chain + shield, bladsinger with high stats with a shield spell etc then it becomes more challenging for the NPCs to land that damage (though keep in mind crits always hit). If the DM employs sub optimal tactics, not using pack tactics on the thugs by having them spread out, not getting sneak attack with the spies, not focusing on specific opponents but attacking a number of different opponents allowing the party to focus fire while the NPCs do not ... all of these factors can turn an almost guaranteed TPK encounter into something that seems easy because the DM chooses to make the NPCs easier than they could be by not taking advantage of their features.
Since most DMs don't WANT to kill off the party, you will find that most NPCs do not play optimally.
One other factor is that NPCs are usually considered dead when hitting 0 hit points while PCs have death saves and can be brought back to full combat effectiveness with one healing spell. In a world where this is common, NPCs should make sure that the PCs are actually dead (not just at 0 hit points) before moving onto another target at least if the party seems to have a healer. Killing a character simply requires two successful melee attacks within 5 feet, each made with advantage and each resulting in 2 failed death saves because they are considered critical hits. If there is healing in the party, the NPCs should be taking the extra time to make sure that the PC won't be back but very few DMs actually play the NPCs intelligently.
So ... why do PCs usually succeed at encounters that would otherwise appear deadly? Usually due to either good tactics and other routes to success in the encounter or a DM having the NPCs use sub optimal tactics to create a fun encounter that doesn't kill off their players. If the DM doesn't roll the dice in the open then this can extend to the DM fudging the NPC die rolls to ensure that the combat comes out the way they want it to (personally, I roll in the open but some DMs like to avoid crits accidentally killing off characters).
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The bottom line is that depending on how you run your encounters, two of the level 1 encounters could poitentially demolish the party in a straight up melee fight.
As others have pointed out, some of these appear deadly, so i'm not going to talk about that; however, what's actually deadly can vary greatly depending on party composition and optimization. Do you know what the party composition is going to be? Or at least what optimization level they typically play at? If you know the exact characters, I would recommend simulating encounters either on your own or with a tool like this one. If you know how optimized your party is going to be, make sure to factor that into your encounter analysis; a highly-optimized party of armored full casters with strong strategies and synergy can make quick work of almost any deadly encounter you through at them, and will have to be bled for resources to give them a proper challenge. However, if your party is made up of low-optimized casters and martials without strong defenses, spells, and feats, you have to be much more careful. Also be aware of any specific weaknesses your party has; strong AOE or control options can single-handedly trivialize some otherwise deadly encounters, and an enemy with the same can destroy some parties if they don't have a way to deal with it.
TL;DR: to fully balance an encounter, you have to know your party and how they play. Until then, you can only get an approximation of balance. My final advice is that it's often easier to add difficulty mid-encounter without breaking immersion than it is to remove difficulty; having struggling enemies call for help or giving the gang boss a super-secret irreversible power up the party has forced him to use is easier to justify than having the enemy retreat long before they're actually in danger or die early, as players will often notice if a seemingly powerful enemy has uncharacteristically low health.
Of course, I don't know what kind of game you're running. Just yesterday, our party of 4 level 4s ran into a CR 20 legendary with over 400 health. Was it balanced? no! did we kill it? of course not! But we got away alive! And it was fun! If you're giving XP for "passing" an encounter, not killing it, it doesn't have to be balanced, just fun and interesting.
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I write homebrew and don't publish it. (evil, I know)
Me and a DM in our group both pre-test encounters, especially ones listed as deadly. Then we can see what a sample party might do against the encounter. I keep a separate campaign for testing to make encounters easy to test. It's still going to play different than at the table, but it gives a test run to work out monster mechanics and try to avoid unintentional tpk's. It takes some extra time but seems to work well for us.
Okay, so I understand your point, but let me reiterate - Dragon of Icespire Peak has a first level encounter with a Manticore.
Manticore: 22.5 dpr (adjusted 11), 68 hp with AC 14 (eHP 113)
Bandit Captain + 2xspy: 43.5 dpr (adjusted 25), 65 hp with AC 14 (eHP 118) and 2x 27 HP with AC 12 (eHP 39), total eHP 196
If it comes down to a brawl, that's not even close, the second encounter is far more dangerous. Now, the manticore does have a key advantage: it's a flying ranged attacker, so PCs without strong ranged attacks are going to have a lot of trouble dealing with it, but there's always the option of run and hide -- the manticore might well win, but a TPK isn't super likely.
The bandit encounter is absolutely beatable by first level PCs if they can exploit the lack of good ranged attacks on those enemies, but if for some reason they wind up in a melee fight, they're probably going to wind up dead.
Based on feedback, myself and two others playtested the heck out of the level 1 encounter and a few of the others. The spies I think you're right are a misstep so I'm likely going to swap them out for thugs or the like instead, maybe even a commoner.
Fret not though! My intention if the party is downed is to have them wake having been captured. So, I'm backstopping these with some other plans to ensure that if the whole group do go down it's not necessarily a TPK, but opens out another avenue for the group to explore. After all if these are smart enemies, and there is a plan - the enemies are going to need to know who sent the group.
I'm also working on the option to have town guard or hired goons join the party for some extra meatshielding if after the rework me and my playtesters think it's still too harsh.
For difficult encounters, it makes a huge difference if the PC's can achieve surprise. It is, however, very difficult to communicate to players that should they fail to achieve surprise, they should propably run away. Simple concepts like 'use cover' or 'stack your modifiers' seem to be very hard to solidify in the minds of players, so caution is advisable when planning on players making rational choices.
My best example is from Shadowrun. After explaining the above to a group of players - literally seconds later - one player stated 'my character leaps on top of the van, and fires both his SMG's at the drones'. He miraculuously failed to make any impact what so ever (which truly was unlucky) at which point the drones in question fired back, exploding him into nothing.
Now, he could have shot from cover - no problem. And had he done so, his character wouldn't have died. Oh well. We didn't see him again, but the rest of the group learned to use cover.
Shadowrun has considerably more dangerous combat than D&D. Particularly, as that PC learned, if you try to stand out in the open. But even then, you can play thing more Pink Mohawk than Black Trenchcoat if that's how the group wants to do it.
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Find your own truth, choose your enemies carefully, and never deal with a dragon.
"Canon" is what's factual to D&D lore. "Cannon" is what you're going to be shot with if you keep getting the word wrong.
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So, I'm part way through mapping out the loose structure of a future Campaign. To be clear, while I'm going to give you my ideas they are intentionally loose so that I can be flexible and improvise around player choice. That means locations and encounters will differ but in general it'll give an idea of what I'm laying down for my players. I tend to work in Acts and Chapters for my planning. Act 1 is roughly Levels 1-5 and a chapter represents the challenges, missions and suchlike that are planned to be presented to the party at each level.
The feedback I'm looking for here though is if this plan feels too tough, too challenging. Make no mistake I want a more difficult campaign going forward for the group. I do also grant XP or milestones to the party if they solve a challenge in ways other than combat. Keep in mind too that Dragon of Icespire Peak has some particularly challenging encounters at first level (Manticore at CR3 for example), basically the players are now experienced enough that they don't need hand holding. The monsters listed at each level won't all be fought at the same time, nor will they all have to be defeated in combat, but these are the challenges I'm putting in their way. The monsters I currently intend to throw at the party are seen below in the spoiler tags. I'm also working to a modified XP ladder which is also listed below in another spoiler tag. It is these encounter/monster/challenges I'd like thoughts on.
The backstory here is that the players are recruited by a minor lord in the court of the City's ruler. The city is largely Human, Dwarf, and Gnomish, somewhat xenophobic and wary of peoples from other backgrounds (elves descending from fey, tiefling descending from fiends etc). This minor lord has noticed that within her district of the city there seems to be an uptick in thugs extorting the civilians. There are rumours of a black market in the district and it is this that the party are recruited and assembled to
Level 1 - Mission 'Adventurers Wanted' - Prove your skills and ability to work as a group toward a common goal. Then find evidence of the black market in the district, once done infiltrate and find out how the illicit goods are getting into the city. If possible capture one of the black marketeers for interrogation.
Encounters - 1x Bugbear, 1x Bandit Captain, 4x Thug, 2x Spy
Likely grouping - 1x Bugbear
Likely Grouping - 1x Bandit Captain, 2x Spy
Likely Grouping - 4x Thugs
Total XP on offer - 1250xp
Level 2 - Mission 'Death Gnoll' - If a smuggler was captured for interrogation, they reveal the method by which goods are entering the city. If not, the party are tasked with tracking covertly a smuggler. This would lead the party to an old tunnel system created long ago by Gnolls who attempted to sapp the walls of the city. On the other end of the tunnel system is a concealed entryway on the side of a hill range. Plenty of cover and signs of regular traffic. The party are ordered to waylay, destroy, or steal the shipment to starve the black market of supply.
Encounters - 3x Gnoll Witherling, 1x Master Thief, 2x Thug, 6x Bandit
Likely Grouping - 1x Gnoll Witherling
Likely Grouping - 2x Gnoll Witherling
Likely Grouping - 1 Master Thief, 2x Thug
Likely Grouping - 6 Bandits
Total XP on offer - 2500xp
Level 3 - Mission 'Ad Ignorantium' - The party are granted some downtime, but are recalled when grain very close to being able to be harvested is seen withering a dying in the fields surrounding the city. The party are tasked with investigating if there is any foul play. The way they find out what's happening will vary according to their approach but ultimately should lead the party to visits by necrotic spirits that are withering all the crops that supply the city. In turn the party are ordered to search the nearby graveyards to track down the only thing that could be behind such deeds - a Necromancer. In actuality it's a former noble now stripped of their title and taking revenge on the city with the aid of a magic item.
Encounters - 5x Zombie, 1x Sword Wraith Warrior, 1x Deathlock Wight, 2x Mummy, 1x Knight
Likely Grouping - 1x Deathlock Wight, 5x Zombie
Likely Grouping - 1x Sword Wraith Warrior
Likely Grouping - 2x Mummy
Likely Grouping - 1x Knight
Total XP on offer - 3750xp
Level 4 - Mission 'Wise Man's Son' - Party are granted an audience with the Ruler's Court should they succeed in capturing or eliminating the former Noble. Should the former Noble escape, the party are still able to have reported back (I hope) and a detatchment of town guards are dispatched. Either during the audience, or during the downtime having reported back the ruler's son is kidnapped. There are traces of fey magic and a Boggle was slain by a guard before it could escape. The party are sent to the nearby forests where a nomadic tribe of Elves, Gnomes and the like make camp. Being of Fey ancestry, the ruler orders the party to find a way to retrieve their son, or at the very least information from the Elves that might help. The upshot is that someone in the Court made a deal with a Fey...the party must either make their own deal or eliminate the fey with whom the deal was struck to rescue the child.
Encounters - 4x Satyr, 3x Myconid Adult, 12x Boggle, 1x Green Hag, 4x Darkling, 1x Cambion
Likely Grouping - 4x Satyr
Likely Grouping - 3x Myconid Adult
Likely Grouping - 3x Boggle
Likely Grouping - 6x Boggle
Likely Grouping - 3x Boggle
Likely Grouping - 2x Darkling
Likely Grouping - 1x Green Hag, 2x Darkling
Likely Grouping - 1x Cambion
Total XP on offer - 5000xp
My modified XP Ladder
Individuals
Lv1 - 0xp
Lv2 - 250xp
Lv3 - 750xp
Lv4 - 1500xp
Lv5 - 2500xp
Party of 5 players
Lv1 - 0xp
Lv2 - 1250xp
Lv3 - 3750xp
Lv4 - 7500xp
Lv5 - 12500xp
DM session planning template - My version of maps for 'Lost Mine of Phandelver' - Send your party to The Circus - Other DM Resources - Maps, Tokens, Quests - 'Better' Player Character Injury Tables?
Actor, Writer, Director & Teacher by day - GM/DM in my off hours.
My suggestion would be to run your encounters through an encounter calculator of some kind to see how easy or hard they are projected to be. Gut reaction seeing what you have planned may be too hard for the levels they are set for. But maybe not if you are willing to pump the breaks here and there or have encounters have goals more complex than "kill all the baddies."
Most of it is probably fine, but there are two encounters that really strike me as TPK territory:
So, being brutal, the encounter calculators do not work at all. They're overly conservative in my experience. CR just doesn't really take into account a whole load of options so it's not just an imperfect solution, it's flat out not a solution. Loadouts, subclass, feats, mundane items, and even tactics can swing encounters entirely. So, these kind of automated tools are no substitute for the experience of other GMs.
As I mention, I don't expect the party to hack and slash their way through the enemies. In my games all encounters allow the gain of XP or Milestone by subverting, tactically avoiding, or otherwise overcoming a challenge. And as I mentioned, in Dragon of Icespire Peak there are similar levels of challenge...many of which can actually be completely nullified through good tactics, or even using classes and options not found in Basic Rules. The manticore fight for example can be overcome by throwing the creature some meat or food to it's liking. The Orcs that attack the Dwarven Excavation are quite numerous and one would think a near deadly encounter...I've never yet in years of running it seen any level one party be taken out by the Orcs.
Speaking then to you gut reaction, which particular 'likely groupings' which would be the indidviual encounters do you think would be too much of a challenge?
DM session planning template - My version of maps for 'Lost Mine of Phandelver' - Send your party to The Circus - Other DM Resources - Maps, Tokens, Quests - 'Better' Player Character Injury Tables?
Actor, Writer, Director & Teacher by day - GM/DM in my off hours.
Each encounter looks, to me, survivable or winnable, by a ready, loaded group of 4/5. That said, early on, the PC have very few resources and are highly likely to spam through them quickly, as some of the encounters could, on a couple bad dice rolls, go VERY bad very fast. If you intend them to hit each encounter fresh and fully loaded, it's likely worth a try. I, personally, would be ready to GOD a roll if things got too swingy on early encounters. At early levels, 2 decent smacks drops most PC's, so a series of super bad rolls for the party VS super lucky rolls for the enemies has you looking a TPK in the face sooner than you may want. Those emergency intervention moments don't occur once the players get a couple levels and a few HP to absorb a run of lousy rolls.
As for the usefulness of encounter tools, I find the DDB one pretty decent up to around level 5. There, it seems the extra attacks of the martials and the new tricks casters get start tilting things pretty wildly.
Talk to your Players. Talk to your DM. If more people used this advice, there would be 24.74% fewer threads on Tactics, Rules and DM discussions.
To be more clear on the examples I considered problematic:
Level 1, encounter 2
That's 25 expected damage per round; typical level 1 hit points is about 10, so two rounds to take out five PCs. Of course, things like healing word exist but are not great against large numbers of small attacks like this, and reasonable focus firing plus use of resources will probably take out a spy every round, but even so that's something like 43 damage over the first two rounds, and then you have maybe two remaining PCs against a bandit captain who's basically untouched, and the party has used up all of its resources.
Level 2, encounter 3
I would somewhat expect this to work like the prior fight; in the first two rounds of the fight three PCs and two thugs go down, and then the remainder of the party has to deal with the master thief. Overall it's probably slightly easier, the master thief isn't great by himself, thugs aren't as dangerous as spies, and party's resources have gone up, but it doesn't take much bad luck to turn this into a TPK.
This varies somewhat depending on how high stats the PCs have, but if they can survive these two encounters at levels 1 and 2, all the level 3 and 4 encounters will be cakewalks.
Thanks for that, I think then a judicious use of environment might be called for. I'll need to plan out some environmental options that may help tip the odds a bit more into the party's favour.
I tend to try and work in height, cover, and choke points when describing the environment which can often help swing the odds. I'll have another look at these and see what I can come up with. Might even dry run them myself from both sides, see what happens.
DM session planning template - My version of maps for 'Lost Mine of Phandelver' - Send your party to The Circus - Other DM Resources - Maps, Tokens, Quests - 'Better' Player Character Injury Tables?
Actor, Writer, Director & Teacher by day - GM/DM in my off hours.
Yeah I agree with this. My biggest concern at low levels are monsters that deal enough damage to kill a player in a single hit because it really sucks to be taken out with out having a turn.
It could be interesting to do an encounter at level 1 where the spy are unarmed or using some kind of shiv but still attack with dex and have sneak attack. I know technically breaks the rules but it means they'll do either 2 or 2d6+2 damage ( average 9 ) which at level 1 will swing them from trivial to barely lethal hits. This could get a fun shock out of players where a seemingly harmless enemy gets an unexpected spike of damage but it will still be low enough that it might not one hit a player. Unarmed attacks also have a better excuse for being not lethal at level 1 and you can explain it away with the spys trying to keep a low profile. It's not something I've tried but it definitely sounds compelling
Okay, so I understand your point, but let me reiterate - Dragon of Icespire Peak has a first level encounter with a Manticore. That thing makes three attacks per turn all with +5 to hit, and all dealing an expected average above 6 for an average total per round of 20 damage. Add into this equation it's Tail Spike attack with a 100ft range and that thing is nasty! To date, I've never had a party die or TPK to that encounter. I've had front liners drop to unconsciousness.
Another possible Level 1 encounter is Dwarven Excavation where you can encounter Ochre Jelly which are nasty so-and-so's able to split in two, attack for an average of 12 with a +4 to hit. Factor in Spider Climb and their ability to squeeze through 1 inch openings. Then finish that off with an Immunity to Slashing damage! Oh and this area concludes with a surprise Orc Attack with a number of Orcs equal to the party size and 'looking for a new lair and fight to the death.'
Finally, the last potential Level 1 area in DoIP is Gnomengarde, equipped with some potentially deadly traps (autoloading crossbow platform anyone). Played as written the operator decides to test this invention out on the party and does not stop attacking until either her invention is destroyed or she can't see anyone. She cannot be reasoned with, bribed, or swayed by alternate tactics. It hits with a Heavy Crossbow +5 to hit. A little further into this area is a Mimic attack. Granted no multiattack there but Mimics used to be scary at low levels for a reason. You had no clue they were coming and it is, as written indestinguishable from an ordinary object. Read that again - as written the mimic is indestinguishable - no check is going to allow you to determine an object is really a mimic. There are good reasons many players see these as cheap shot enemies. Then past a few more guards, checks and exploration options there is the Spinning Blade trap - DC 15 DEX saving throw, and 4d8 damage on a failure or half as much on a success. There are of course ways past this (mage hand), but that might not be something a newbie player would immediately think of.
Oh, and all this assumes that the GM didn't roll the location of Cryovain the Young White Dragon to be wherever the party are currently leaving/arriving...which would make the party a potential target of the Dragon who has three +7 attacks not to mention it's Cold Breath attack.
These are Core Starter adventures and utilise for the most part basic rules. Yet, I've never seen a TPK to any of these encounters - all of which I've seen in actual games over the last several years.
With all that in mind, and forgive me if I've sounded argumentative - that's not my intention - but how different do you folks consider my proposed encounters to be to the three location examples that I've laid out from an adventure designed for newbies? In that context is my proposed set of encounters really that harsh still?
DM session planning template - My version of maps for 'Lost Mine of Phandelver' - Send your party to The Circus - Other DM Resources - Maps, Tokens, Quests - 'Better' Player Character Injury Tables?
Actor, Writer, Director & Teacher by day - GM/DM in my off hours.
I don't know how many charcters there will be but assuming 4, then my observations are that for most part the encounters are good challenge but watch for;
Level 1 - Mission 'Adventurers Wanted' 1 Bandit Captain with 2 Spy will be a hard encounter, perhaps even deadly if they're unlucky, so there's risk of TPK as 1st level characters are very fragile.
Level 2 - Mission 'Death Gnoll' 1 Master Thief with 2 Thug will also be a hard encounter for 2nd level party and there is even a chance the Master Thief outright kill at least one character.
Level 3 - Mission 'Ad Ignorantium' 2 Mummy should be a hard encounter for a 3rd level party, deadly if some become paralyzed. If they survive some can still die in the following days due to the Mummy curse unless they can remove it.
Level 4 - Mission 'Wise Man's Son' The encounter with the Cambion may be hard, especially if it charms a character and the rest don't have ways to make magic attacks somehow.
The group is currently five members, I'll actually be looking for a sixth. Sorry I thought I included that in my first post.
Thanks for picking up on the lasting effects of the Mummy too! I'll definitely have to work in somewhere in the city where they can get the mummy rot curse removed!
DM session planning template - My version of maps for 'Lost Mine of Phandelver' - Send your party to The Circus - Other DM Resources - Maps, Tokens, Quests - 'Better' Player Character Injury Tables?
Actor, Writer, Director & Teacher by day - GM/DM in my off hours.
I ran my group of 3 through an introduction to a new campaign I'm starting last night. They had 2 encounters, one with 3 Bandits and 1 with 2 Blink Dogs. Encounter builder ranked both as Deadly and they nearly were. Group is a Fighter, Monk and Druid. Monk and Druid, at level 1, running at 9 HP. Essentially any hit put them in a spot they would, all but surely, go down on a second hit. Careful application of attacks (I played the enemies that they were trying to take down everyone at once, so spread out the hits) was a large part of why they didn't all die.
At the end of the blink Dogs, the 3 of them shared 5 HP. Monk was at 1, Druid and Fighter both at 2. Action economy was decent, but the dogs rolled good to hit and the fighter struggled in the 1st 2 rounds. Again, an example of how a round of bad dice can turn almost any level 1 encounter into a TPK.
Talk to your Players. Talk to your DM. If more people used this advice, there would be 24.74% fewer threads on Tactics, Rules and DM discussions.
For difficult encounters, it makes a huge difference if the PC's can achieve surprise. It is, however, very difficult to communicate to players that should they fail to achieve surprise, they should propably run away. Simple concepts like 'use cover' or 'stack your modifiers' seem to be very hard to solidify in the minds of players, so caution is advisable when planning on players making rational choices.
My best example is from Shadowrun. After explaining the above to a group of players - literally seconds later - one player stated 'my character leaps on top of the van, and fires both his SMG's at the drones'. He miraculuously failed to make any impact what so ever (which truly was unlucky) at which point the drones in question fired back, exploding him into nothing.
Now, he could have shot from cover - no problem. And had he done so, his character wouldn't have died. Oh well. We didn't see him again, but the rest of the group learned to use cover.
Blanket disclaimer: I only ever state opinion. But I can sound terribly dogmatic - so if you feel I'm trying to tell you what to think, I'm really not, I swear. I'm telling you what I think, that's all.
I think this really well sums up my feeling on difficult encounters too. I try to litter my encounter locations with what I call 'tactical debris'. Environmental elements that the PCs can utilise to gain an upper hand. Dungeons can be great locations...if players utilise the connecting corridors to their advantage. To player choices, yeah it can be a long hard road getting players to consider an encounter in a way other than 'let's kill them'. Getting PCs to realise they should try to egress or retreat, or even just hold off the attack until the situation is in their favour is not the easiest road to tread.
I do, it is worth noting adapt my encounter lists and even the plans according to the group. I currently run two games both set in the same world but the stories that the PCs have woved have been entirely different. For one group I knew that their playstyle allowed for me to point them in the direction of the enemy stronghold early game. When they tried to challenge the guards, their hireling NPC was murdered in one shot. Though angry, when the enemy gave the the chance to leave with their lives, the party took it. However, had I done this with the other group, they'd have fought to the death. So I never pointed them in that direction. Instead, they got some different quests, different challenges.
The right plan for the right group can really help with balance. And it's worth saying a thank you to everyone so far, because although I don't 100% agree with some responses, I can and will still consider them prior to deploying this planned campaign idea. It has and will help me continue to prep.
DM session planning template - My version of maps for 'Lost Mine of Phandelver' - Send your party to The Circus - Other DM Resources - Maps, Tokens, Quests - 'Better' Player Character Injury Tables?
Actor, Writer, Director & Teacher by day - GM/DM in my off hours.
Just a couple of quick comments on your examples from DoIP.
1) Manticore. It is possible to negotiate with the Manticore and give them 25gp of treasure or some pounds of meat to get them to leave. The windmill also has small windows and defensive positions where the party can fight off the Manticore if they decide to do so. Deciding to stand out in the open and fight the Manticore face to face where it can fire off tail spikes with relative impunity is likely to be a problem.
2) The ooze is only a danger if the characters don't know anything about it. It has a speed of 10' and a reach of 5'. The characters can easily keep out of range and attack with arrows/bolts. These do piercing damage so the splitting is never an issue. Running this depends entirely on the DM and how obvious they make the weaknesses of the ooze appear to the characters so that they can figure out the trivially safe strategy to deal with it. If the party acts like lemmings and surrounds it at melee range then a TPK is certainly possible but the DM can provide some clues that maybe this isn't the best approach.
3) The Mimic is likely the largest threat in Gnomengarde. The traps may catch someone but the gnomes themselves aren't necessarily hostile. The autoloading crossbow platform can be dealt with in any number of ways. As long as the party doesn't decide to rush at it head long ... and even then, if they damage the platform or the operator then it can be stopped or reduce its efficiency.
Basically, all of the DOiP introductory adventures do have a significant risk IF the party decides to make them into straight up melee fights. All of them have elements which will more or less trivialize the encounters. How they run depends a lot on the DM, how much info they give the party and how much the DM encourages the party to look for solutions other than running into melee range and swinging a sword. As a result, deaths and TPKs from these are relatively infrequent.
However, even then, it is important to keep in mind that a crit from a manticore tail spike has the possibility of instantly killing some characters from massive damage on a bad roll depending on the hit points of the characters and any damage they may have already taken.
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In terms of your suggested encounters, it depends to some extent on the party composition, how many characters there are, what classes, whether you have used rolled stats (with good results) vs point buy for character creation. The results will also depend on what resources the party has left after going through the encounters.
In your level 1 encounters ... looking at the encounter builder to start ... party of 6 level 1 characters
1 Bugbear - trivial
4 Thugs - deadly
1 bandit captain, 2 spys - deadly
Why?
1) 4 Thugs - 32 hit points each - 2 attacks - PACK TACTICS - advantage on every attack is a big deal assuming that they act even remotely intelligently.
A typical level 1 character has 1 attack/rd, for an average of d8+3 damage or 7.5. Even if they hit every round, each thug will take an average of 5 hits to take down. If the party uses focused fire and the thugs spread out and attack different targets then it could be an easy encounter since the party should take down one thug/round. On the other hand, if the thugs gang up 2/character with pack tactics they will do an average of 11 damage each on each turn. With two/character this is 22 damage which will take down pretty much any first level character with damage left over for other targets. Result is a TPK unless the party gets lucky with a 1st level spell or two (sleep doesn't work well since the thugs have too many hit points).
However, that is typical ... if your party is composed of variant human fighters with sharpshooter, 20 dex rolled stats and the archery fighting style ... or PAM characters, or X-bow expert, or a monk with high stats and a bonus action attack (eg a monk starting with 20 dex and wis will have a 20AC with two attacks ... add in 18 con for 12 starting hit points). With high stats and multiple attacks and/or unusually high AC, the balance in a fight might well change but if you are using typical characters with point buy stats then it takes a while to whittle down opponents with ~30 hit points and the AC will allow the characters to be hit 30-50% of the time (without pack tactics being factored in).
So ... deadly encounter and possible TPK depending on the tactics used by the players and the DM. On the other hand, fewer thugs and the fight becomes easy since one of the biggest factors in combat balance is action economy. The number of characters vs the number of opponents is a critical factor in balancing any encounter.
2) 1 Bandit captain, 2 spies - 65 hit points, 3 attacks - spy 27 hit points, 2 melee attacks, sneak attack.
Again, the outcome of this depends on the tactics used by the DM. If the intelligent enemies focus on specific opponents as they should then likely 2 characters will die every turn. First level hit points are typically in the 8-14 range (14 con and 6 to 12 hit points). The average damage from ONE spy attack with sneak is 12.5 damage and they have two chances to get that every round assuming that sneak attack is available. The bandit captain could do an average of 18.5 damage each round if all of their attacks hit.
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This is why these encounters have a decent chance of going sideways. Level 1 characters have few hit points and each of these opponents is capable of almost one shotting most PCs. With a high roll, the spies have a decent chance of insta killing a level 1 with massive damage. If a spy gets a crit that is almost guaranteed since the damage becomes 6d6+2 vs a level 1 character.
HOWEVER :) .. if the characters all have an AC of 18+ ... eg. good rolled stats, chain + shield, bladsinger with high stats with a shield spell etc then it becomes more challenging for the NPCs to land that damage (though keep in mind crits always hit). If the DM employs sub optimal tactics, not using pack tactics on the thugs by having them spread out, not getting sneak attack with the spies, not focusing on specific opponents but attacking a number of different opponents allowing the party to focus fire while the NPCs do not ... all of these factors can turn an almost guaranteed TPK encounter into something that seems easy because the DM chooses to make the NPCs easier than they could be by not taking advantage of their features.
Since most DMs don't WANT to kill off the party, you will find that most NPCs do not play optimally.
One other factor is that NPCs are usually considered dead when hitting 0 hit points while PCs have death saves and can be brought back to full combat effectiveness with one healing spell. In a world where this is common, NPCs should make sure that the PCs are actually dead (not just at 0 hit points) before moving onto another target at least if the party seems to have a healer. Killing a character simply requires two successful melee attacks within 5 feet, each made with advantage and each resulting in 2 failed death saves because they are considered critical hits. If there is healing in the party, the NPCs should be taking the extra time to make sure that the PC won't be back but very few DMs actually play the NPCs intelligently.
So ... why do PCs usually succeed at encounters that would otherwise appear deadly? Usually due to either good tactics and other routes to success in the encounter or a DM having the NPCs use sub optimal tactics to create a fun encounter that doesn't kill off their players. If the DM doesn't roll the dice in the open then this can extend to the DM fudging the NPC die rolls to ensure that the combat comes out the way they want it to (personally, I roll in the open but some DMs like to avoid crits accidentally killing off characters).
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The bottom line is that depending on how you run your encounters, two of the level 1 encounters could poitentially demolish the party in a straight up melee fight.
As others have pointed out, some of these appear deadly, so i'm not going to talk about that; however, what's actually deadly can vary greatly depending on party composition and optimization. Do you know what the party composition is going to be? Or at least what optimization level they typically play at? If you know the exact characters, I would recommend simulating encounters either on your own or with a tool like this one. If you know how optimized your party is going to be, make sure to factor that into your encounter analysis; a highly-optimized party of armored full casters with strong strategies and synergy can make quick work of almost any deadly encounter you through at them, and will have to be bled for resources to give them a proper challenge. However, if your party is made up of low-optimized casters and martials without strong defenses, spells, and feats, you have to be much more careful. Also be aware of any specific weaknesses your party has; strong AOE or control options can single-handedly trivialize some otherwise deadly encounters, and an enemy with the same can destroy some parties if they don't have a way to deal with it.
TL;DR: to fully balance an encounter, you have to know your party and how they play. Until then, you can only get an approximation of balance. My final advice is that it's often easier to add difficulty mid-encounter without breaking immersion than it is to remove difficulty; having struggling enemies call for help or giving the gang boss a super-secret irreversible power up the party has forced him to use is easier to justify than having the enemy retreat long before they're actually in danger or die early, as players will often notice if a seemingly powerful enemy has uncharacteristically low health.
Of course, I don't know what kind of game you're running. Just yesterday, our party of 4 level 4s ran into a CR 20 legendary with over 400 health. Was it balanced? no! did we kill it? of course not! But we got away alive! And it was fun! If you're giving XP for "passing" an encounter, not killing it, it doesn't have to be balanced, just fun and interesting.
I write homebrew and don't publish it. (evil, I know)
Me and a DM in our group both pre-test encounters, especially ones listed as deadly. Then we can see what a sample party might do against the encounter. I keep a separate campaign for testing to make encounters easy to test. It's still going to play different than at the table, but it gives a test run to work out monster mechanics and try to avoid unintentional tpk's. It takes some extra time but seems to work well for us.
If it comes down to a brawl, that's not even close, the second encounter is far more dangerous. Now, the manticore does have a key advantage: it's a flying ranged attacker, so PCs without strong ranged attacks are going to have a lot of trouble dealing with it, but there's always the option of run and hide -- the manticore might well win, but a TPK isn't super likely.
The bandit encounter is absolutely beatable by first level PCs if they can exploit the lack of good ranged attacks on those enemies, but if for some reason they wind up in a melee fight, they're probably going to wind up dead.
Based on feedback, myself and two others playtested the heck out of the level 1 encounter and a few of the others. The spies I think you're right are a misstep so I'm likely going to swap them out for thugs or the like instead, maybe even a commoner.
Fret not though! My intention if the party is downed is to have them wake having been captured. So, I'm backstopping these with some other plans to ensure that if the whole group do go down it's not necessarily a TPK, but opens out another avenue for the group to explore. After all if these are smart enemies, and there is a plan - the enemies are going to need to know who sent the group.
I'm also working on the option to have town guard or hired goons join the party for some extra meatshielding if after the rework me and my playtesters think it's still too harsh.
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Shadowrun has considerably more dangerous combat than D&D. Particularly, as that PC learned, if you try to stand out in the open. But even then, you can play thing more Pink Mohawk than Black Trenchcoat if that's how the group wants to do it.
Find your own truth, choose your enemies carefully, and never deal with a dragon.
"Canon" is what's factual to D&D lore. "Cannon" is what you're going to be shot with if you keep getting the word wrong.