(Fala Lefaliir, an herbalist and a member of the Guild of Apothecaries and Physicians, operates out of this stately, three-story town house, the third floor of which has been converted into a greenhouse. Its translucent glass walls allow anyone on the street to see the rainbow of flowers blossoming within.

Fala Lefaliir is an outgoing wood elf with long, braided hair. Like the elven god Corellon Larethian, Fala is neither male nor female. If referred to as “he” or “she,” Fala gently requests to be addressed by name or as "they")

“I was watering plants in the greenhouse on the second floor of my shop when the blast blew out some of the windows. Lucky I wasn’t injured! Through the smoke, I saw a cloaked man take something from the body of a dead gnome, then start limping away. He was badly burned and casting glances over his shoulder, like he was afraid someone might be following him. He was headed toward the Bent Nail.”

Toser approaches the 12 yo boy and gives him a reassuring smile.  "Are you OK?  Are you hurt at all?  Tell me what you saw happen, I can help.  I own the manor here, we can get you a drink of water."

"Right after the explosion, I ducked behind a rain barrel. Then I heard a ‘plop’ and found this in the barrel. I'm not hurt, but my friends were all caught in the blast. They weren't as fortunate as me...” and he pulls a necklace with two orange beads out of his pocket. (which is the source of evocation magic. No prizes for guessing what it is. Your characters can deduce it as easily as your player)

Wagner, seeing the authorities locking down, tries to discreetly gather his friends together for information exchange and planning next steps.

Oriace approaches each (or all) companion(s) close, speaking in low whispers and punctuating his words with silent telepathic nudges to ensure discretion. (I'm assuming we are all aware of all the conversations for sake of simplicity.)

“Here’s what we know. The gnome had recently spent time in the sewers and carried five valuable gemstones, which I have secured. One of the dead men bore the Black Network’s mark. A witness claims they saw a ‘puppet-like’ figure on the rooftops throw something into the crowd, which caused the explosion. Another says a cloaked man, badly burned, took something from the gnome and fled toward the Bent Nail. Meanwhile, our young witness found a discarded necklace of fireballs in a rain barrel. Now, why would the culprit throw that away if they had just used it?”

He let the question settle before continuing.

“These accounts don’t add up. If the puppet was truly responsible, how did the necklace end up discarded down here? Did someone else use it? And if the cloaked man was involved, why was he injured in the blast rather than escaping unscathed?”

Oriace’s voice took on an urgent edge.

“The limping man is the only lead we can track immediately. If he was a victim trying to save something from the gnome, he could still be in danger. We may not have long before whoever orchestrated this silences him for good.”

He looked to the others. “I say we go after him. Quickly.”

As Oriace starts to bring your discussions together, the City Watch arrive. They are led by a sergeant who is escorting a member of the Watchful Order of Magists and Protectors (see image of the two in spoiler)

The mage quietly takes charge of the investigation at that point, while the sergeant directs a force of twenty constables to knock on doors and question locals, starting at each end as to give the mage time to investigate the scene (and therefore in between you and the Bent Nail) and making their way to the middle, meaning that your property is one of the last to be questioned. Before allowing the corpses to be removed and taken to local temples, the mage inspects the scene closely. 

Oriace will navigate to the Bent Nail as if it is there where he belongs. 

As you are approaching the Bent Nail, you see that the constables are there, having banged on the door, waiting for it to open. And you can hear Tally (who you know well as he sorted out the carpentry for your stage) shouting through the door. "Bear with me. Just moving the barricade. I heard and explosion and so blocked my doors with some of my larger furniture to try and keep me and my more delicate pieces safe." and then the door gets opened. Tally is there, and they start questioning him. They aren't forcing people back to their dwellings (as some people here were visiting like the noble lady) but they do still have people at the entrances blocking you leaving so they will stop you going around the Bent Nail as that leads to a way out of the alley. 

The questioning of Tally leads to you hearing that he has not seen or heard anything after the initial blast as he just locked himself in and hid. He seems truthful.

While exchanging info, Wagner points out that the puppet might have ditched the necklace after using it to get rid of evidence.

He then tries to gauge the likelihood of success in successfully misty stepping up to the roofs unseen and hiding from the griffon cavalry while investigating.

Based on your insight I rolled for you (22), after looking closely and monitoring the patterns of the griffon cavalry, you will probably be spotted without some way to be invisible.

(also, a question for Toser. Before fully moving on from your discussion with the boy, I need to know if you leave the necklace with him or if you try and encourage him to part with it. And if you do want to try and take it, its a DC8 persuasion or intimidation. If Toser doesn't take it (by choice or failed roll), someone else is welcome to try after Toser shares the information. And Sterling and Wagner physically can't fail so they wouldn't even need to roll)

Mana has been passively taking in the information. He scratches his bare chin in thought.

”Give me a moment, I want to confirm something.”

He makes his way to the wealthy woman and says, “Tragic morning. Are you ok?”

After awaiting her response, he will continue. “One of my friends said you saw a figure on a rooftop. Was it that one?”

Mana deliberately points to a roof on the wrong side of the ally. He is hoping she will correct him and point to the roof above the rain barrel where the lad retrieved the beads. If she confirms a different roof, then there were possibly more assailants than the “puppet”.

Wagner waits to see the confirmation of the rooftop from the wealthy woman, then tries to find a secluded spot to cast invisibility on himself. He will then misty step and/or climb to that roof and look around.

Rolls if Needed: Stealth: 18 Investigation: 18 Perception: 21

The rooftop she saw was not directly above the rain barrel, however was the adjacent building.

Wagner, misty step would cancel invisibility. However with that stealth, you can find a secluded part of the alley, watch for as the griffon rider turns around and time your misty step to be out of sight, immediately turning invisible. Looking around, you see no sign of the puppet however you do find a clasp that looks like it is from a broken necklace not too far from the edge of the adjacent building (above the water barrel).

Question for all of you (as I don't want to go looking through everyones backstories). Have any of you spent at least one year in Waterdeep. Or at least visited during the Day of Wonders parade, which to quote Volo's Waterdeep Enchiridion he gave to you:

Marpenoth 3: Day of Wonders

The imaginative inventions of the Gondar are revealed on this day and paraded through the city. These devices range from something as humble as new cabinet hinges to massive mechanical constructs that walk or roll about. Failure is the paramour of invention, though, meaning it is a rare year when there isn’t some notable disruption of the celebration. The flying chair of Marchell was one such recent oddity — a device that worked marvelously on the way up but was incapable of descending. Marchell was rescued by the Griffon Cavalry, but his flying chair drifted away and was never seen again.

(( Sterling has been in the city a while and had doubtless witnessed the parade. ))

As the bard stood near the Bent Nail, listening to the interrogation as discretely as possible, he furrowed his brow. Where had the cloaked man gone, if not inside?

Again trying to not bring too much attention to himself, Sterling quickly cast a spell, hoping to spot a moving magical aura, or possibly some other clue.

(( Perception Check if needed: 14 ))

Mana deduces that the burnt runaway probably did not force his way into the Bent Nail. Instead he projects his speculation telepathically, Sewer access, while looking in a completely different direction.

Mana is watching the individuals in our group. He personally thinks we should be assisting the authorities with any information we have gleaned including our speculations. After all, they have the fiduciary responsibility to protect the citizenry and properties and their resources far outweigh our own. But, he also realizes that sometimes introducing a bit of chaos (parallel investigations) can yield more productive results and grant us more control over our destinies. He’s torn.

Do we turn over, or rat on the kid with the necklace? Do we keep the gems? Surely we’re keeping those, right?

Oriace considers Mana’s speculation, his mind ticking through the possibilities. If the cloaked man didn’t enter the Bent Nail, then he had to have gone somewhere. The sewers? Possible. But the sergeant is watching. How do we check without drawing attention?

He takes a step back, lowering his profile as he discreetly weaves an incantation. Behind the window of a neighboring house, his Unseen Servant stirs, knocking over a loose stool and rattling some dishes. Hopefully, the subtle commotion is just loud enough to potentially divert the sergeant’s attention. If the guards glance toward the noise, Oriace subtly scans the area, his keen eyes searching for any telltale signs of a sewer grate or entrance nearby. If their theory holds, the burnt man may have fled underground—and if so, they need to follow before the trail grows cold, and he tells everyone (telepathically) that he intends to go down when no one is looking. His mind continues to spin a tale, Might the cloaked man have employed a disguised unseen servant or some other conjuration to fling a fireball with help of the necklace? Maybe he wanted to retrieve it but the halfling got the better of him? This would explain a lot. 

Mana makes his way to Fala.

”Hello Fala. Terrible morning, isn’t it?  Is it true you saw a fleeing man? Was he dressed like the two humans and carrying a sword as well?”

Mana is trying to deduce who was with who just before the blast. He recalls the scene as he fist came upon it. Which direction was the gnome likely heading based on how he fell? Were the two men with swords walking alongside him? Trailing him? Passed him and going the other direction?

Wagner returns to the ground carefully, staying invisible but handing over the broken clasp and reporting what he saw. (To the party.)

The description of the puppet bears a striking similarity to the automatons that sometimes march in the Day of Wonders parade, as anyone who has lived in Waterdeep during the fall season knows. The Day of Wonders parade is sponsored by the House of Inspired Hands, the temple to Gond.

Sterling sees nothing of note around the Bent Nail. 

Around this same time, the mage has finished his investigations, and, with the sergeant beside him, walks over to the door of Trollskull Manor, knocks on it and calls all of you by name.