When I use Thugs I adjust accordingly to party level. I keep the A.C. where it's at, then drop HPs by 1/2. Give them a club. For 1st lvl characters and for a more back alley thug, knock em out encounter.

Comparing it to other CR 1/2 creatures, it's definitely heavy on the defensive side. High HP ensures it'll stick around for a while, but 1d6+2 isn't much more threatening than a goblin offensively.

A black bear does more damage with its multiattack, especially with its claws. A warhorse packs utility with carrying a rider and running very fast. A cockatrice effectively has a save-or-die effect tied to its attack. These things are scary to low-level PCs.

This guy...hits more reliably when aided by another creature. That's it.

Quote from LiveFromKevin >>

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As for the first post saying this makes things like Orcs and Gnolls weak by comparison, this is the perfect kind of template to use for those monsters maybe as a leader or second-in-command type, just slap some racial traits on them.

 Absolutely. I think this things challenge rating should be bumped up to 1, and that it would've made more narrative sense for it to have lower hp and one attack and keep it's 1/2 cr. Unless it's intended to be like a lower level version of the bandit captain (gang boss) or if this was something that orcs or whatnot would've gotten (orc brute) BUT. I don't mean to sound so negative. I sound negative because there's confusing things about the way this guy's presented, and things that could've been improved, but my criticism comes from a place of "how could this be improved". And you sir have the right idea. For all my complaints, I do see this monster statblock as a blessing, for the reskin potential. Which might seem silly since it's not a hard statblock to come up with from scratch, but I'm super bad at coming up with things from scratch but pretty damn good at reskinning, tweaking, adding and subtracting bits to make some fun stuff. As you say, drawing comparisons between this guy and monsters that should/could be able to hold their own against him is a great starting point for homebrew goodness.

Quote from Rexir2 >>

 isn't much more threatening than a goblin offensively.

A black bear does more damage with its multiattack, especially with its claws. A warhorse packs utility with carrying a rider and running very fast. A cockatrice effectively has a save-or-die effect tied to its attack. These things are scary to low-level PCs.

This guy...hits more reliably when aided by another creature. That's it.

 
Actually this guy has multiattack as well, and a ranged weapon. If this guy and a black bear both hit with both attacks, the bear does 0.5 damage more on average. So with pack tactics, the intelligence to utilize it, 2/3rds more health, same AC, and a range weapon option (which while not strong, gives him both more options and more opportunities to use pack tactics) this guy is undeniably stronger than a black bear, offensively, defensively, and tactically. Same deal for the goblin, I think you didn't notice the multiattack when comparing. Warhorse is closer, with its speed and accuracy, but that still only leaves it about on-par offensively and far weaker hp. A cockatrice is indeed scary, but with one, low chance to hit attack it''ll either do nothing or next to nothing or take out one person, usually. At level 1-3 this guy's damage output can be just as scary as petrification, and far more reliable. Even if he whiffs, he'll probably do some damage and soften you up. 
Let's look at him and the Hobgoblin. Against attacks they're almost equal, the hob has armor but the thug just under 3x the hp, typically 1.5 times harder to kill that way, and not going to die to a lucky shot or two. But against anything that ignores armor, like save spells, magic missile or sleep, the hobgob loses hard. With allies in place, both get a benefit, and are about equal, the hob dealing one hard-ass blow, the thug dealing two weaker, more accurate ones. But if you take away their allies the hob loses more,  just over half his damage output, the thug only loses advantage, which doesn't even lower his potential damage at all, just his average. If he gets lucky and hits often he's still doing damage. Also, unless the DM handwaves it, he can't stow his bow, and pull out both his sword and shield at the same time, shields cost an action to equip anyway, so his ranged attack has a disadvantage to using it. Even if you stack everything in favor of the hobgoblin it still doesn't even out, and in all other circumstances the thug completely outshines it.
Also of note, a pair of thugs would stand a good chance of dropping a bandit captain in a fight.

Have you considered that because they are just mercenaries, they would probably surrender once they get low on health? I would rule that depending on how well the fight is going for them, they would surrender at about 10 hp.

Quote from FoeSmasher28 >>

Have you considered that because they are just mercenaries, they would probably surrender once they get low on health? I would rule that depending on how well the fight is going for them, they would surrender at about 10 hp.

 This is a very good point.  Most Humanoids don’t fight to the death, just until to their leader’s death, or until they are personally low on HP.

Narratively, you could likely pay off a thug as well.

Good point, but most wild animals and people use self preservation too, and thugs stack up well against both animals and other humanoids. 
Also you can't pay off a thug unless you make it clear you're dangerous. 1 they can beat you up and take all of your money and 2 that's a good way to become the next target. Criminals also don't surrender, they run away. 
 

yeah I agree

I'm fairly certain thats his hair, but I'm happy to be wrong

For the CR I'll probably be using d6s instead of d8s to roll for the HP--for first level characters that would be hard to beat.

Quote from Zwigleder >>

For the CR I'll probably be using d6s instead of d8s to roll for the HP--for first level characters that would be hard to beat.

 In 5th Ed, Hit Die is normally determined by size.  If you want to reduce the HP, just roll fewer dice.  4d8+8 would average out to 26 hp, 1.5 lower than the average for 5d6+10.

I always imagine the bandits as scrawny and agile, where thugs are the big brutes and bullies that you will want to put your players against. They have high hp so they can take a good hit but low ac as to not be too difficult for a party to handle. A gang of these thugs are a good challenge with pack tactics, enough to be intimidating guards. Make sure to describe them as large and muscular so they aren't considered fodder like bandits are.

Uturiru

but the Armor and attack roll bonuses kind of suck so does its AC

One of my player’s backstories involved him having a bad history with the Zhentarim…and so they’ve been sending bounty hunters after him.

Had a great encounter where two Thugs ambushed him in his hotel room…the pack tactics worked well, and the struggle was difficult enough that it led to an amusing chase scene.

When using a thug as a sidekick using the rules from Tasha's Cauldron of Everything, I like to reword its Multiattack to:

"The thug makes two attacks. This does not let the thug ignore a weapon's loading property."

The loading property of the Heavy Crossbow seems like it's the mechanical reason thugs can't make two ranged attacks, so this maintains the same base functionality but gives them more flexibility if given a thrown weapon or non-loading ranged weapon, or the Crossbow Expert feat.

Honestly. Comparing it to a black bear, they have almost equal physical stats (Thug has 1 more dex which doesn't change anything).

Both have 2 attacks via Multiattack and an AC of 11. 

The bear is faster by 10 feet/round and has a climb speed but the Thug has ranged options.

In Melee (with the thug's default weapon, a mace), the Bear has a slightly better DPR due to it's  claw attack dealing slightly more damage, but that's about it.

The Thug has nearly twice as many hitpoints and Pack Tactics. If there are the same number of thigs as bears, the thugs probably win. In a 1v1 where a bear starts in melee range, it stands a chance.

if you hover over intimidation and read what appears, it say GM instead of DM

I really like the Thug for a first encounter in my campaign. They are easy to hit, but strong in HP.

There is apperantly art of a female version of this thug. Looks official, or at least replicates the official art style very closely, though is in the awful .webp format.

https://********/adventure.html#pota,-1

https://********/img/adventure/PotA/011-poa01-12.webp