Or, if the tone you're going for is a set of highly capable and experienced veterans on a mission to change the course of history, perhaps do something more outlandish. Roll 28d6, reroll any result less than 3, then drop the lowest 10 dice and arrange them into groups of 3 how you please. It inflates the possible stat scores, but that might be the tone the DM is going for with their campaign.
Rerolling 1s and 2s just seem like a huge hassle. 2D6+6 is a much quicker way to do it. Or if you want to be really epic, (3D6, drop the lowest)+6.
That's not what optimization is. Optimization is getting maximal value out of whatever resources you are provided
I mean... yes, but...
If you read a lot of the threads here, what the optimizers want to do is not only get the most out of the provided resources, but are looking to have what you might call the "theoretical maximum" one could possibly have for their chosen class/subclass/whatever.
Theoretical maximum within a previously agreed upon budget. You could do an optimization challenge with randomly rolled stats -- as long as one set of stats was rolled and everyone involved in the challenge was required to use that set of stats.
Or, if the tone you're going for is a set of highly capable and experienced veterans on a mission to change the course of history, perhaps do something more outlandish. Roll 28d6, reroll any result less than 3, then drop the lowest 10 dice and arrange them into groups of 3 how you please. It inflates the possible stat scores, but that might be the tone the DM is going for with their campaign.
Rerolling 1s and 2s just seem like a huge hassle. 2D6+6 is a much quicker way to do it. Or if you want to be really epic, (3D6, drop the lowest)+6.
Or you can just roll 0d6+18.
Just don't multiply by zero...
How about 99999999999999999d6 drop the 99999999999999996 lowest.
They mean that the highest you rolled was a 12 or 13, giving your main stat a 14. That can suck if you don't like not having good stats. Point Buy or Standard Array does not have this problem unless you chose to have it.
While possible, I've never seen it. *knock on wood*
I have a few times. Once rolled a character with three negative scores, two 11/12's, and one 13. I didn't end up using the character, but it's not super incredibly unlikely to happen.
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They mean that the highest you rolled was a 12 or 13, giving your main stat a 14. That can suck if you don't like not having good stats. Point Buy or Standard Array does not have this problem unless you chose to have it.
While possible, I've never seen it. *knock on wood*
I have a few times. Once rolled a character with three negative scores, two 11/12's, and one 13. I didn't end up using the character, but it's not super incredibly unlikely to happen.
You think thats bad? I rolled a character once and got 10, 10, 12, 8, 9, 8. The dm rerolled for me tho, even though it's wanted the keep them
They mean that the highest you rolled was a 12 or 13, giving your main stat a 14. That can suck if you don't like not having good stats. Point Buy or Standard Array does not have this problem unless you chose to have it.
While possible, I've never seen it. *knock on wood*
I have a few times. Once rolled a character with three negative scores, two 11/12's, and one 13. I didn't end up using the character, but it's not super incredibly unlikely to happen.
You think thats bad? I rolled a character once and got 10, 10, 12, 8, 9, 8. The dm rerolled for me tho, even though it's wanted the keep them
If you play with a character who rolled two 18's and their lowest roll was a 15 (which I have, and I saw the rolls with my own eyes), that is a problem, most often. It's an issue when another character's lowest score is a higher base than what your most important score is, in my experience and opinion.
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I don't hate it but there are some things I dislike about it, just as there are some things I dislike about point buy/SPA. My main problem withe SPA is the 8. Not because an 8 is in and of itself a terrible score but because it feels like a terrible score (since it gives you a minus) and that having an 8 in a stat is so different depending on what stat it is. For example, a Rogue might have a Strength of 8 and it's never going to be a problem since they can compensate with Dex but a Barbarian with an Int of 8 will often be treated like a moron despite the fact that it's not really a big deal. This of course leads to people not wanting a "bad" stat which means that a lot of people prefer rolling for stats. Which brings me to 4D6, drop the lowest.
Oh boy. Again, it's not a bad system, it's just that it's not very balanced. The fact that you can end up with at least one 20 is not the problem I have though (if all players roll really good, the DM can just make things slightly harder, no worries) but the issue of balance between the players. If someone has three scores of 16+ and the lowest is a 12 while someone else has a single 16 as the highest score and two 9s, it's not going to be as fun for both. Sure, certain classes can do with just one good stat but not everyone wants to play those. So that's one problem for me. This can be solved by letting all players roll a set of scores and then they decide on which set everyone uses. Sure, this isn't strictly 4D6, drop the lowest but it's my game and I do as I please (my game also don't have any dragonborn, if that matters to anyone).
Another problem is that random stats can ruin or at least mess up the character concept you had which, again, is not fun. Sure, if your concept relies on three 18s, maybe it's not the best concept but still, it's nice to be able to play what you want to.
Lastly, rolling crappy scores, or having that one score you need to "fix" using ASIs to get the character you want makes levelling up less fun. Your friend who got an 18 on their primary AND secondary stat can choose if they want to take a cool feat, or perhaps even multiclass since they won't need that fifth ASI. Meanwhile, you with a 16 and then nothing above 12 are stuck with bumping stats so you will be able to hit anything in combat.
In short, crappy, random stats limit your options which makes the game less fun. So I'm not a huge fan. :/
The answer to your question for me as a DM is, "It all depends on the maturity level of the players at the table." I worry more about a player taking the spotlight too much more than I worry about the player that has the lowest stats. The player with the low stats is going to have fun as long as they get enough of the attention and story applied to them. If the spotlight player keeps hammering their strong character, that is where I fear it might be a problem.
As a player, I believe I would get a better set of stats with 4d6 drop the lowest than I would with either S-A or P-B, most of the time. Occasionally I will get a "poor" character, but usually my main stat would be better than if I went with the others. Now, my understanding of 4d6 drop low still allows you to arrange your stats. It costs a lot to get to an eighteen in P-B so I'd rather have a higher initial total than an eighteen. But with 4d6 drop the lowest I have a very good chance of getting a seventeen or better in one of those six numbers. Now, yes, I might also get a six in one stat, but I bet my second lowest is at least a 10 and the rest will be higher than that. For one reason, I anticipate most DMs would let you reroll a character with three stats below 10.
Now in the "old Days" (AD&D) we rolled 3d6, six times, and we did it in order. So after six rolls your best score was your strength. Next you rolled for intelligence, then wisdom, then constitution, then dexterity and finally charisma. After we rolled our stats, we selected our character class and race. This was because most classes had minimum stats in something, and races as well. I don't think you could play an elf with a dex below 10, for example. The 4d6 drop the lowest was just a faster way to roll 3d6 six times. It may give a tiny bit better chance at rolling a higher average too; I haven't run the math. Back in the old days we were happy to play D&D. We didn't expect to play a specific character type at the start. Folks these days don't think that way and expect to play the class and race they wish. The rules were rewritten to make all bonuses positive wherever possible. So nobody has to reduce the charisma because they took the such-and-such class, for example.
And finally, trust me, a 14 in even a secondary stat made a big difference back then from an 8 or even a 10. In a typical four or more member party of today, somebody has a decent score in the stat you need to roll an ability check (except possibly Int, which these days appears to be a universal dump stat), and with the Advantage with Help option, you should get a pretty fair chance at a good roll.
It's all about how well the players at the table get along.
If choosing between SPA/Point Buy or rolling 4D6, drop the lowest is part of your optimization process then rolling for stats would be to optimize, since that allows for better stats across the board and teh risk of getting worse stats than SPA/Point Buy are very low.
This is just incorrect.
The math suggests its just as easy to roll poorly as it is to roll well or average. The funny thing about rolling average is that its just worse than using point buy to take your main stat to 14.
The whole point of the standard array is to give you the "average" of the 4d6 drop one but still give you a high to low distribution so that you can go with the suggested stat breakdown for each class in the PHB.
Your chances of striking rich with an 18 is actually pretty low and your chance of getting average (which is what you would have gotten with standard array) or a 16 in one (What you would have gotten with point buy) or lower (the worst case scenario) are actually pretty high comparatively.
The problem with rolling for stats is that majority of the time they will hate the stats and actually want a re-roll or to just use standard array or point buy anyway which defeats the purpose of the "chance" element.
9 out 10 you hear horror stories start with an overpowered PC that has god stats or a dump character with 6's in two stats.
Can it work? Yes literally anything can work in DnD if you work hard enough at it.
Is it the best option for MOST tables? No. The game is designed around bounded accuracy and tossing someone on either side of a +/- 2 difference is going to produce noticeable effects on the mechanics.
It's just one of the many ways to generate ability scores. There isn't a one size fits all approach to each table, so use whatever fits your table best. It's neither good, bad, wrong, right, better, worse or anything. In a very heroic game, you might want high ability scores - and 4d6 drop the lowest, make 2 lists, might work. In a dark and gritty game where the PCs suck and will stay sucking for most of the game, 3d6 in line might work best. Don't think too hard about it. It's just an option used in a game where you're free to do whatever you want.
The math suggests its just as easy to roll poorly as it is to roll well or average.
While this is true, the average is higher than the average for point buy. From a crude simulator, there's about a 36% chance to be worse than point buy, 4% to be equal, and 60% to be better. However, most tables use some form of 'discard really poor stats', probably discarding the low 20-25% of rolls, which pushes the chance of being better up to around 75%.
The math suggests its just as easy to roll poorly as it is to roll well or average.
While this is true, the average is higher than the average for point buy. From a crude simulator, there's about a 36% chance to be worse than point buy, 4% to be equal, and 60% to be better. However, most tables use some form of 'discard really poor stats', probably discarding the low 20-25% of rolls, which pushes the chance of being better up to around 75%.
In which case its not really about rolling for stats for fun its about rolling HIGH stats for fun. I just wish people would be honest about it and say its because they want better stats to start and not pretend its about "random scores".
Everyone wants to roll for stats until they get a 6.
The math suggests its just as easy to roll poorly as it is to roll well or average.
While this is true, the average is higher than the average for point buy. From a crude simulator, there's about a 36% chance to be worse than point buy, 4% to be equal, and 60% to be better. However, most tables use some form of 'discard really poor stats', probably discarding the low 20-25% of rolls, which pushes the chance of being better up to around 75%.
i would like to see your math please as well as what you are considering to be average.
If choosing between SPA/Point Buy or rolling 4D6, drop the lowest is part of your optimization process then rolling for stats would be to optimize, since that allows for better stats across the board and teh risk of getting worse stats than SPA/Point Buy are very low.
This is just incorrect.
No, it is objectively not. Since you drop the lowest. This increases your chances of getting a higher average. And more importantly, you run a higher than zero chance of getting an 18, 19 or 20 when rolling whereas that chance is zero with point buy and standard point array.
Also, from your own link:
It also shows us that the average roll is rougly 16, 14, 13, 12, 10, 9. This is pretty close to the D&D 3 elite array (15, 14, 13, 12, 10, 8) and the slightly boosted D&D 4 standard array (16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10).
Everyone wants to roll for stats until they get a 6.
Perhaps this is true for many, but one of the best characters I have seen in years of gaming was a fighter with an 18.87 Strength and a 4 Int. Yes, I know that shows how long ago this was. The point is that the player embraced the challenges presented by his character. Throm was strong, but stupid and just liked to hit things. He became a rallying point for his entire party and the source of many side encounters, such as the rogue deciding to "have a talk with that nice merchant who had given his buddy such a great deal on supplies" or the mayors pretty daughter growing frustrated when the "Hero" who had slain the beast and saved her was oblivious to her flirting.
This is a role-playing game. Struggles and limitations are part of the fun.
i would like to see your math please as well as what you are considering to be average.
I wrote a mini program that generated 10,000 characters and computed the point value for each one (treating stat points above 15 as +2 per +1, below 8 as -1 per -1; different formulas will slightly adjust the results). Of those characters, 3650 had a point value of less than 27, 400 had a point value of exactly 27, and 5950 had a point value of more than 27. The highest point value (66) was 18/16/18/13/17/14.
The answer to your question for me as a DM is, "It all depends on the maturity level of the players at the table." I worry more about a player taking the spotlight too much more than I worry about the player that has the lowest stats. The player with the low stats is going to have fun as long as they get enough of the attention and story applied to them. If the spotlight player keeps hammering their strong character, that is where I fear it might be a problem.
This is a very good point. Even with good players though, you will still have the mechanical disadvantage of simply not being as good as other characters. To take an example many people here are probably familiar with, compare Mollymauk (or Yasha) with Jester from Critical Role. Mollymauk had pretty decent stats. Nothing fantastic bit nothing really awful either, same for Yasha. Still they struggled quite a bit compared to characters like Jester (who rolled amazing stats) or even Fjord (who could rely on a single stat). In the long run that can get really boring and in the case of Yasha she basically had to be given some extras just to be able to keep up. In my opinion, that kind of stuff shouldn't be necessary.
If choosing between SPA/Point Buy or rolling 4D6, drop the lowest is part of your optimization process then rolling for stats would be to optimize, since that allows for better stats across the board and teh risk of getting worse stats than SPA/Point Buy are very low.
This is just incorrect.
No, it is objectively not. Since you drop the lowest. This increases your chances of getting a higher average. And more importantly, you run a higher than zero chance of getting an 18, 19 or 20 when rolling whereas that chance is zero with point buy and standard point array.
Also, from your own link:
It also shows us that the average roll is rougly 16, 14, 13, 12, 10, 9. This is pretty close to the D&D 3 elite array (15, 14, 13, 12, 10, 8) and the slightly boosted D&D 4 standard array (16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10).
Yeah exactly....its pretty much the same as standard array. The part you forgot to include though:
Highest at least
One
Two
Three
18
9.34%
0.38%
0.01%
17
30.07%
4.03%
0.34%
16
56.76%
17.85%
3.26%
15
79.40%
42.16%
14.13%
14
92.80%
69.01%
36.29%
Is that you have a 79% chance to roll a 15. And only a 42% chance to have a second 15
Point Buy you have a 100% chance to have two 15s.
Overall Rolling is potentially better...but its just as likely it will be bad.
i would like to see your math please as well as what you are considering to be average.
I wrote a mini program that generated 10,000 characters and computed the point value for each one (treating stat points above 15 as +2 per +1, below 8 as -1 per -1; different formulas will slightly adjust the results). Of those characters, 3650 had a point value of less than 27, 400 had a point value of exactly 27, and 5950 had a point value of more than 27. The highest point value (66) was 18/16/18/13/17/14.
The average for point buy is, of course, 27.
Not to crap on your program but I do trust AnyDice a bit more as it has been independently validated. Your point about most tables allowing re-rolls of the low numbers is true and valid however and your calculations do seem to account for that which is interesting.
Everyone wants to roll for stats until they get a 6.
Perhaps this is true for many, but one of the best characters I have seen in years of gaming was a fighter with an 18.87 Strength and a 4 Int. Yes, I know that shows how long ago this was. The point is that the player embraced the challenges presented by his character. Throm was strong, but stupid and just liked to hit things. He became a rallying point for his entire party and the source of many side encounters, such as the rogue deciding to "have a talk with that nice merchant who had given his buddy such a great deal on supplies" or the mayors pretty daughter growing frustrated when the "Hero" who had slain the beast and saved her was oblivious to her flirting.
This is a role-playing game. Struggles and limitations are part of the fun.
Yes for experienced players and DMs I think this is a very valid point. For new DMs and Players its better to just go with SA or Point-Buy as it provides a consistent experience. In my opinion its much better to understand the system first before you start messing with the mechanics via these kind of stat differences.
Not to crap on your program but I do trust AnyDice a bit more as it has been independently validated.
Anydice gives correct numbers for what it's calculating, but it calculates mean score, not mean point value. 4k3 has a mean point value of 12.24 but a mean point value of 5.03 (because of the higher value of stats above 13). It would probably be possible to make AnyDice generate net point value, but it would be a hassle.
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Just don't multiply by zero...
Theoretical maximum within a previously agreed upon budget. You could do an optimization challenge with randomly rolled stats -- as long as one set of stats was rolled and everyone involved in the challenge was required to use that set of stats.
There are problems with both and there is no point in no arguing, you can each just do what you want.
I prefer rolling, but I don't like the rerolling versions.
I am an average mathematics enjoyer.
>Extended Signature<
How about 99999999999999999d6 drop the 99999999999999996 lowest.
I am an average mathematics enjoyer.
>Extended Signature<
I have a few times. Once rolled a character with three negative scores, two 11/12's, and one 13. I didn't end up using the character, but it's not super incredibly unlikely to happen.
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You think thats bad? I rolled a character once and got 10, 10, 12, 8, 9, 8. The dm rerolled for me tho, even though it's wanted the keep them
I am an average mathematics enjoyer.
>Extended Signature<
If you play with a character who rolled two 18's and their lowest roll was a 15 (which I have, and I saw the rolls with my own eyes), that is a problem, most often. It's an issue when another character's lowest score is a higher base than what your most important score is, in my experience and opinion.
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I don't hate it but there are some things I dislike about it, just as there are some things I dislike about point buy/SPA. My main problem withe SPA is the 8. Not because an 8 is in and of itself a terrible score but because it feels like a terrible score (since it gives you a minus) and that having an 8 in a stat is so different depending on what stat it is. For example, a Rogue might have a Strength of 8 and it's never going to be a problem since they can compensate with Dex but a Barbarian with an Int of 8 will often be treated like a moron despite the fact that it's not really a big deal. This of course leads to people not wanting a "bad" stat which means that a lot of people prefer rolling for stats. Which brings me to 4D6, drop the lowest.
Oh boy. Again, it's not a bad system, it's just that it's not very balanced. The fact that you can end up with at least one 20 is not the problem I have though (if all players roll really good, the DM can just make things slightly harder, no worries) but the issue of balance between the players. If someone has three scores of 16+ and the lowest is a 12 while someone else has a single 16 as the highest score and two 9s, it's not going to be as fun for both. Sure, certain classes can do with just one good stat but not everyone wants to play those. So that's one problem for me. This can be solved by letting all players roll a set of scores and then they decide on which set everyone uses. Sure, this isn't strictly 4D6, drop the lowest but it's my game and I do as I please (my game also don't have any dragonborn, if that matters to anyone).
Another problem is that random stats can ruin or at least mess up the character concept you had which, again, is not fun. Sure, if your concept relies on three 18s, maybe it's not the best concept but still, it's nice to be able to play what you want to.
Lastly, rolling crappy scores, or having that one score you need to "fix" using ASIs to get the character you want makes levelling up less fun. Your friend who got an 18 on their primary AND secondary stat can choose if they want to take a cool feat, or perhaps even multiclass since they won't need that fifth ASI. Meanwhile, you with a 16 and then nothing above 12 are stuck with bumping stats so you will be able to hit anything in combat.
In short, crappy, random stats limit your options which makes the game less fun. So I'm not a huge fan. :/
The answer to your question for me as a DM is, "It all depends on the maturity level of the players at the table." I worry more about a player taking the spotlight too much more than I worry about the player that has the lowest stats. The player with the low stats is going to have fun as long as they get enough of the attention and story applied to them. If the spotlight player keeps hammering their strong character, that is where I fear it might be a problem.
As a player, I believe I would get a better set of stats with 4d6 drop the lowest than I would with either S-A or P-B, most of the time. Occasionally I will get a "poor" character, but usually my main stat would be better than if I went with the others. Now, my understanding of 4d6 drop low still allows you to arrange your stats. It costs a lot to get to an eighteen in P-B so I'd rather have a higher initial total than an eighteen. But with 4d6 drop the lowest I have a very good chance of getting a seventeen or better in one of those six numbers. Now, yes, I might also get a six in one stat, but I bet my second lowest is at least a 10 and the rest will be higher than that. For one reason, I anticipate most DMs would let you reroll a character with three stats below 10.
Now in the "old Days" (AD&D) we rolled 3d6, six times, and we did it in order. So after six rolls your best score was your strength. Next you rolled for intelligence, then wisdom, then constitution, then dexterity and finally charisma. After we rolled our stats, we selected our character class and race. This was because most classes had minimum stats in something, and races as well. I don't think you could play an elf with a dex below 10, for example. The 4d6 drop the lowest was just a faster way to roll 3d6 six times. It may give a tiny bit better chance at rolling a higher average too; I haven't run the math. Back in the old days we were happy to play D&D. We didn't expect to play a specific character type at the start. Folks these days don't think that way and expect to play the class and race they wish. The rules were rewritten to make all bonuses positive wherever possible. So nobody has to reduce the charisma because they took the such-and-such class, for example.
And finally, trust me, a 14 in even a secondary stat made a big difference back then from an 8 or even a 10. In a typical four or more member party of today, somebody has a decent score in the stat you need to roll an ability check (except possibly Int, which these days appears to be a universal dump stat), and with the Advantage with Help option, you should get a pretty fair chance at a good roll.
It's all about how well the players at the table get along.
(Wow, 51 posts in under 23 hours!)
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This is just incorrect.
The math suggests its just as easy to roll poorly as it is to roll well or average. The funny thing about rolling average is that its just worse than using point buy to take your main stat to 14.
https://anydice.com/articles/4d6-drop-lowest/
The whole point of the standard array is to give you the "average" of the 4d6 drop one but still give you a high to low distribution so that you can go with the suggested stat breakdown for each class in the PHB.
Your chances of striking rich with an 18 is actually pretty low and your chance of getting average (which is what you would have gotten with standard array) or a 16 in one (What you would have gotten with point buy) or lower (the worst case scenario) are actually pretty high comparatively.
The problem with rolling for stats is that majority of the time they will hate the stats and actually want a re-roll or to just use standard array or point buy anyway which defeats the purpose of the "chance" element.
9 out 10 you hear horror stories start with an overpowered PC that has god stats or a dump character with 6's in two stats.
Can it work? Yes literally anything can work in DnD if you work hard enough at it.
Is it the best option for MOST tables? No. The game is designed around bounded accuracy and tossing someone on either side of a +/- 2 difference is going to produce noticeable effects on the mechanics.
It's just one of the many ways to generate ability scores. There isn't a one size fits all approach to each table, so use whatever fits your table best. It's neither good, bad, wrong, right, better, worse or anything. In a very heroic game, you might want high ability scores - and 4d6 drop the lowest, make 2 lists, might work. In a dark and gritty game where the PCs suck and will stay sucking for most of the game, 3d6 in line might work best. Don't think too hard about it. It's just an option used in a game where you're free to do whatever you want.
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While this is true, the average is higher than the average for point buy. From a crude simulator, there's about a 36% chance to be worse than point buy, 4% to be equal, and 60% to be better. However, most tables use some form of 'discard really poor stats', probably discarding the low 20-25% of rolls, which pushes the chance of being better up to around 75%.
In which case its not really about rolling for stats for fun its about rolling HIGH stats for fun. I just wish people would be honest about it and say its because they want better stats to start and not pretend its about "random scores".
Everyone wants to roll for stats until they get a 6.
i would like to see your math please as well as what you are considering to be average.
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"Play the game however you want to play the game. After all, your fun doesn't threaten my fun."
No, it is objectively not. Since you drop the lowest. This increases your chances of getting a higher average. And more importantly, you run a higher than zero chance of getting an 18, 19 or 20 when rolling whereas that chance is zero with point buy and standard point array.
Also, from your own link:
Perhaps this is true for many, but one of the best characters I have seen in years of gaming was a fighter with an 18.87 Strength and a 4 Int.
Yes, I know that shows how long ago this was. The point is that the player embraced the challenges presented by his character. Throm was strong, but stupid and just liked to hit things. He became a rallying point for his entire party and the source of many side encounters, such as the rogue deciding to "have a talk with that nice merchant who had given his buddy such a great deal on supplies" or the mayors pretty daughter growing frustrated when the "Hero" who had slain the beast and saved her was oblivious to her flirting.
This is a role-playing game. Struggles and limitations are part of the fun.
I wrote a mini program that generated 10,000 characters and computed the point value for each one (treating stat points above 15 as +2 per +1, below 8 as -1 per -1; different formulas will slightly adjust the results). Of those characters, 3650 had a point value of less than 27, 400 had a point value of exactly 27, and 5950 had a point value of more than 27. The highest point value (66) was 18/16/18/13/17/14.
The average for point buy is, of course, 27.
This is a very good point. Even with good players though, you will still have the mechanical disadvantage of simply not being as good as other characters. To take an example many people here are probably familiar with, compare Mollymauk (or Yasha) with Jester from Critical Role. Mollymauk had pretty decent stats. Nothing fantastic bit nothing really awful either, same for Yasha. Still they struggled quite a bit compared to characters like Jester (who rolled amazing stats) or even Fjord (who could rely on a single stat). In the long run that can get really boring and in the case of Yasha she basically had to be given some extras just to be able to keep up. In my opinion, that kind of stuff shouldn't be necessary.
Yeah exactly....its pretty much the same as standard array. The part you forgot to include though:
Is that you have a 79% chance to roll a 15. And only a 42% chance to have a second 15
Point Buy you have a 100% chance to have two 15s.
Overall Rolling is potentially better...but its just as likely it will be bad.
Not to crap on your program but I do trust AnyDice a bit more as it has been independently validated. Your point about most tables allowing re-rolls of the low numbers is true and valid however and your calculations do seem to account for that which is interesting.
Yes for experienced players and DMs I think this is a very valid point. For new DMs and Players its better to just go with SA or Point-Buy as it provides a consistent experience. In my opinion its much better to understand the system first before you start messing with the mechanics via these kind of stat differences.
Anydice gives correct numbers for what it's calculating, but it calculates mean score, not mean point value. 4k3 has a mean point value of 12.24 but a mean point value of 5.03 (because of the higher value of stats above 13). It would probably be possible to make AnyDice generate net point value, but it would be a hassle.