I am making a divine soul sorcerer and want to choose what my 1 main 1st lvl damage spell is going to be.
My party consists of 1 unkown, a Rogue, a Ranger, a Order Domain Cleric & myself.
The damage isn't too diffirent as a guiding bolt does an average of 14 hitpoints and magic missile does an average of 11 force damage. I know magic missile could be better considering it always hits but hear me out:
By giving the advantage that guiding bolt grants i could give the rogue advantage and thus sneak attack on his attacks in case we are not going to have another front line fighter and I could give the ranger advantage on the attack roll even if he is shooting at an enemy from a distance.
Magic Missile scales better, as force damage is less commonly resisted than radiant, and you get the guaranteed hit. Also, you can target multiple enemies or you can hit a single spellcaster three times and force three separate Concentration checks.
You'd only cast guiding bolt on something that's hard to hit. If it's hard to hit, it's hard to hit with guiding bolt.
I would go with magic missile. It /always/ does something. Miss with a guiding bolt and all you accomplished was using a spell slot.
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There isnt really a "better" here. It depends on your school of thought. A magic missile automatically hits, so it can be expected to always deal its damage... but it also is negated by a shield spell. If you have an inkling of whether the campaign will deal with spellcasters frequently, then that is also something to consider. It sucks to upcast to a 5th level only for the target to negate it with a shield AND have +5 ac till the start of their next turn.
Guiding bolt requires an attack roll, so it can be a waste of a turn if you miss... but it also can critically hit, making even a low level spell slot do a significant amount of damage (8d6 radiant is pretty dang nice for a lvl1 spell slot).
There are also the aesthetics to consider: do you want several brilliant motes of light flying from you to strike your target? Or do you want to fastball a ball of light at the target/shoot a single beam of divine energy?
Personally, I've never been particularly fond of magic missile. It is a very good spell mechanically, it just doesnt do it for me flavor wise.
One thing to think about where sorcerers are concerned is your metamagic, Ae you planning to take Twin? You can't twin magic missile but you can twin guiding bolt. Does it always hit - no, but when it's twinned and it hits both targets it's very sweet. You do 4d6 radiant damage on two enemies and your party has advantage on both targets. Not a bad way to spend a sorcery point. It's also thematic. A divine soul has divine blood so it makes sense to have a damage spell that is divine.
I appreciated having MM at lower levels because I didn't have metamagic yet. I dropped it when I got twin and never missed it. YMMV. It's about what you think will best suit your character and what you think you will have fun with. MM is better by the numbers but every party and every campaign is different.
You need to be able to hit 75% of the time for Guiding Bolt to match Magic Missile for average damage. At 1st level, that means that unless all your enemies have ACs of 11 or lower, Magic Missile is better for direct damage.
Advantage is less easily quantifiable, but assuming an AC of 16, there’s in increase to the rogue’s expected damage of 25%, so (assuming 1d6+3 weapon damage and 1d6 sneak attack), that’s a boost of 2.5 damage. So against an AC of 16, the expected damage of the guiding bolt itself is 7, plus 2.5 estimated from the advantage, for a total of 9.5, which is still less than Magic Missile’s 10.5.
I’m sure there’s some sweet spot where Guiding Bolt might be better for damage, but Magic Missile will almost always be better, even with advantage.
Now, there are other reasons than damage that advantage might be valuable, so there are definitely cases where Guiding Bolt would be better, but I think those situations are rare enough that overall Magic Missile is the clear winner.
Don't underestimate how good Guiding Bolt is with Twinned Spell. One spell point to double your chance to hit/damage and advantage without any concentration. Better than Chromatic Orb in most circumstances. Magic Missile always hits, but it also always does measly damage, and doesn't help anyone else in the party shine.
One of my favourite parts of playing Divine Soul is having a stack of excellent first-level spells that work well with Twinned Spell for one economical point (Guiding Bolt, Shield of Faith, Sanctuary) compared to the relatively lame Sorcerer spell list at that level. Might as well lean into it.
Magic Missile will do more damage, unless you use Metamagic to enhance the Guiding Bolt, due to the fact that it always hits. If you adjust the GB damage to reflect the chances that you miss, it will do less than MM. It also does Force Damage, which 1 monster in the game is immune to and none resist. Also, since it is guaranteed to hit, there is an inherent reliability to it.
On the other hand, Guiding Bolt has a very nice secondary effect, if it works. It is also compatible with Twin Spell (which you should definitely take; it's definitively the best Metamagic), and only requires 1 SP to Twin (although I don't really know if you would want to spend precious SP on this). Also, Radiant damage is (IIRC) the 3rd-least commonly resisted damage type, after Force and Psychic, so you can count on most enemies taking the full damage if you hit.
If it were me, I'd lean towards Guiding Bolt, as I tend to favor effects over pure damage (also, the damage difference is nearly negligible). Also, taking subclass-specific spells can feel slightly cooler, so I'd take Guiding Bolt for sure. The only reason I might not is if the Cleric you mentioned in your party might also take it, and then it would be less unique. Chaos Bolt (a Sorc exclusive) is another spell you might want to look at; it's pretty interesting.
TL;DR: They both have their upsides, but I'd pick Guiding Bolt.
Rogue + Order Cleric creates one of the very very few circumstances where there might be a niche edge case to choose Guiding Bolt over literally anything else, including Magic Missile.
As others have said, Guiding Bolt is unreliable, and largely only helps the party overcome a scenario (high AC single enemy) which cuts against the reliability of landing Guiding Bolt itself in the first place. But while advantage usually just helps people hit more reliably, it also lets a rogue trigger sneak attack damage without the enemy being adjacent to an ally. Which usually, they will be, so even that isn't that useful! Or, some rogue subclasses like Inquisitor or Swashbuckler have special features that let them use Sneak Attack on their turn even without an adjacent ally or advantage! But there may be the odd round where a rogue is unable or unwilling to enable their own sneak attack on their turn, and assuming they're going to be the next ally to attack that enemy, your Guiding Boltcould enable that extra damage.
Adding an Order Cleric into the mix takes that niche scenario and pumps it up a notch. Now, your Guiding Bolt is not only potentially useful for giving the Rogue Sneak Attack on their turn, it also is potentially able to set up the Rogue's Sneak Attack on the Cleric's turn. The Cleric handing the Rogue a reaction attack isn't usually going to let the Rogue use their other tricks to set up Sneak Attack, like a bonus action Hide or Insightful Fighting, so if you can set up advantage with a Guiding Bolt, that's going to be needed in order to make the Rogue an attractive Voice of Authority target... unless, again, Ranger or Cleric or [Unknown] is already standing in melee range of that enemy, in which case you're adding very little.
So like 90%, take Magic Missile. But if your party wants to lead into synergies and wombo combos, maybe you'll get some fun table moments out of Guiding Bolt that make you feel like an essential member of the team.
Rogue + Order Cleric creates one of the very very few circumstances where there might be a niche edge case to choose Guiding Bolt over literally anything else, including Magic Missile.
As others have said, Guiding Bolt is unreliable, and largely only helps the party overcome a scenario (high AC single enemy) which cuts against the reliability of landing Guiding Bolt itself in the first place. But while advantage usually just helps people hit more reliably, it also lets a rogue trigger sneak attack damage without the enemy being adjacent to an ally. Which usually, they will be, so even that isn't that useful! Or, some rogue subclasses like Inquisitor or Swashbuckler have special features that let them use Sneak Attack on their turn even without an adjacent ally or advantage! But there may be the odd round where a rogue is unable or unwilling to enable their own sneak attack on their turn, and assuming they're going to be the next ally to attack that enemy, your Guiding Boltcould enable that extra damage.
Adding an Order Cleric into the mix takes that niche scenario and pumps it up a notch. Now, your Guiding Bolt is not only potentially useful for giving the Rogue Sneak Attack on their turn, it also is potentially able to set up the Rogue's Sneak Attack on the Cleric's turn. The Cleric handing the Rogue a reaction attack isn't usually going to let the Rogue use their other tricks to set up Sneak Attack, like a bonus action Hide or Insightful Fighting, so if you can set up advantage with a Guiding Bolt, that's going to be needed in order to make the Rogue an attractive Voice of Authority target... unless, again, Ranger or Cleric or [Unknown] is already standing in melee range of that enemy, in which case you're adding very little.
So like 90%, take Magic Missile. But if your party wants to lead into synergies and wombo combos, maybe you'll get some fun table moments out of Guiding Bolt that make you feel like an essential member of the team.
1) Voice of Authority can only be used when you cast a 1st level spell or higher that targets an ALLY. Unless you are spiking a Guiding Bolt into the back of your Rogue's head, it won't allow him to make an attack.
2) Advantage helps any attacker, and not just in hitting a high AC foe -- it also increases critical hit chance.
3) Guiding Bolt is one of the best low level blasting spells from ANY spell list. Even forgetting that it grants advantage to the next hit, it does 4d6 Radiant at base level, averaging to 14 damage. That is the most damaging single target spell at first level. It doesn't scale as well as Chromatic Orb or a couple others, but it does scale at the same rate as magic missile (both get +3.5 damage on average per spell slot level above first, though MM does get some swingy-ness due to its unique mechanic). You have to go to AoE spells to do more damage in a round.
4) Guiding bolt can miss, but it can also CRIT. That means that while you can miss your spell (like any other low level character can miss their attack or have the enemy resist a saving throw), you can occasionally do 8d6 damage for a 1st level spell slot... 28 average damage against a single enemy can turn a bad boss fight into a victory, while Magic Missile is stuck doing 10.5 damage on average, and without the ability to increase it (outside of specific class feats like Evocation wizard lvl10).
3) Guiding Bolt is one of the best low level blasting spells from ANY spell list. Even forgetting that it grants advantage to the next hit, it does 4d6 Radiant at base level, averaging to 14 damage. That is the most damaging single target spell at first level. It doesn't scale as well as Chromatic Orb or a couple others, but it does scale at the same rate as magic missile (both get +3.5 damage on average per spell slot level above first, though MM does get some swingy-ness due to its unique mechanic). You have to go to AoE spells to do more damage in a round.
4) Guiding bolt can miss, but it can also CRIT. That means that while you can miss your spell (like any other low level character can miss their attack or have the enemy resist a saving throw), you can occasionally do 8d6 damage for a 1st level spell slot... 28 average damage against a single enemy can turn a bad boss fight into a victory, while Magic Missile is stuck doing 10.5 damage on average, and without the ability to increase it (outside of specific class feats like Evocation wizard lvl10).
3) Guiding Bolt does not do 14 damage on average, because it needs to hit to do any damage at all. 5e usually assumes a ~50% hit chance, so Guiding Bolt's average damage is ~7. That's going to change as your hit chance goes up or down, of course, but it's a reasonable simplification of most scenarios.
4) Crits are nice when they happen, but their actual impact on expected damage is negligible. It's a 5% increase in average damage, so that 7 becomes 7.35. Not very impressive. Cognitive biases make the psychological impact of a crit disproportionately great, but it's useful to look at the numbers more rationally (not necessarily to privilege them exclusively, but consideration is valuable).
1) Voice of Authority can only be used when you cast a 1st level spell or higher that targets an ALLY. Unless you are spiking a Guiding Bolt into the back of your Rogue's head, it won't allow him to make an attack.
I think you misread me. My understanding was that the Sorcerer casting Guiding Bolt and the Order Cleric are two different characters. I'm saying that ordinarily the Sorcerer casting Guiding Bolt only helps a Rogue with their SA if the Rogue is the next character in the initiative order. With an Order Cleric in the mix, now the Rogue might pick an SA up from it if they're next in the initiative order (they probably already had a way to enable SA on their own turn) OR if the Order Cleric is next in the initiative order (when the Rogue is less likely to be able to enable an SA, unless an ally is already standing next to the enemy).
As for crits... sorry, they just aren't really relevant when discussing the merits of spells. Crit-fishing is so rare in 5E outside of some very niche melee half-orc builds, so the benefit of Advantage doubling crit chance is hardly worth weighing in your decision making... 5% chance of a crit-> 10% chance of a crit = odds are, nobody's going to crit on the next attack against that enemy either way. Much less the possibility that Guiding Boltitself might crit.... it just doesn't signifigantly change the expected avg. damage output of the spell. Against an appropriately leveled major enemy in Tier 1 play, your typical sorcerer is going to be attacking with a +5-6 to hit, against AC's anywhere in the 13-18 range. Even giving them the benefit of the 13 AC match ups (hitting on 8+), that means they're missing 35% of the time (0 damage), hitting normally 60% of the time (14 avg. damage per hit), and critting 5% of the time (28 avg. damage per crit). That's what, about 9.2 avg damage per round weighted against AC 13 opponents? Against higher AC 18 opponents, who you're actually going to feel pressured to use the spell against, your avg damage per round would be like.... 6.3 avg damage per round, blech. (*I'm bad at math, someone tell me if I'm not figuring this right).
Meanwhile, Magic Missilealways does 10.5 avg damage per round, and it's a reliable 10.5, and a flexible 10.5 that can be split up among multiple targets if needed. Selecting spells around what would be cool to crit with (which quite likely will never happen once over the entirety of your campaign) is wishful thinking.
Magic Missile is more damage on average, when one accounts for actually needing to land a hit. Other than that, sure.
I wasn't accounting for having to hit. This is kinda hard to phrase but, if you can hit Guiding Bolt deals more damage. For example, you will almost always hit an Ooze due to their low AC, so you would want to deal as much damage per hit as possible. You are correct that the average damage is higher.
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100% of the time that you cast Magic Missile because you've decided it's right for the situation, you accomplish what you set out to do, and feel satisfied.
Somewhere between 30-60% of the time that you cast Guiding Bolt, you miss, waste a spell slot, complain about this f@#$ing d20 and how you swear you'll never use it again, mutter "well that's my turn I guess!", and spend the next 5-10 minutes glaring/sulking.
100% of the time that you cast Magic Missile because you've decided it's right for the situation, you accomplish what you set out to do, and feel satisfied.
Somewhere between 30-60% of the time that you cast Guiding Bolt, you miss, waste a spell slot, complain about this f@#$ing d20 and how you swear you'll never use it again, mutter "well that's my turn I guess!", and spend the next 5-10 minutes glaring/sulking.
Too true.
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I honestly have never met someone who goes down the minutia of hit chance when considering average damage because hit chance changes from encounter to encounter, target to target.
Also... because of how probability works, an individual can occasionally see a disparity in the expected number of hits and the actual number of hits. Some people roll consistently bad. Each die roll has a 5% chance to result in a given number on the d20, but if you roll 100 d20's you very much can see deviations from the expected average value. When we are talking low levels, you only have a couple spell slots, you can EASILY roll five or less when looking at a sample size that small... does that mean that we should consider the average damage of Attack Roll spells as 0 because we never hit? This is why looking at the effect of the spell when it has an effect is more useful. Your same argument could be applied to 'save or suck spells' like hold person. Sure it paralyzes him, but you have a 50% chance of it not working, so why bother using it at all?
Sure, lets take your version for average damage. Magic Missile does 10.5 and Guiding Bolt does 7.35. A difference of 3.15 damage. Guiding Bolt still grants advantage to the next hit. That could be anything from a 1 damage Sorcerer Slap to a variant human Great Weapon Master to another cast of Guiding Bolt from another party member. In most cases that extra 3 points of damage will be paid forward as a direct result of your cast, as advantage boosts average damage as well using your to-hit basis.
And what about the Shield spell? Sure it will make Guiding Bolt much less likely to hit, but it completely negates the Magic Missile spell. I'm not saying that players always find themselves fighting casters, but rather that there is ALSO a situation that reduces Magic Missile's damage completely, while Guiding Bolt gets to see its average damage simply plummet... but not to zero. If we are going to look at the 'misses' of attack rolls we need to also consider the situations where Magic Missile 'misses'.
This is why I just look at the bald effect of a given ability instead of mathing out hit percentages -- there is ALWAYS going to be some situation that alters the equation, and not just in a niche sense as there are many DIFFERENT factors that can arise on regular basis. Things like cover, advantage/disadvantage, direct counters, unforeseen resistance or immunity... It is a level of granularity that is an interesting exercise but less than practical.
100% of the time that you cast Magic Missile because you've decided it's right for the situation, you accomplish what you set out to do, and feel satisfied.
Somewhere between 30-60% of the time that you cast Guiding Bolt, you miss, waste a spell slot, complain about this f@#$ing d20 and how you swear you'll never use it again, mutter "well that's my turn I guess!", and spend the next 5-10 minutes glaring/sulking.
This. Every bit of it. I've taken guiding bolt several times between two sorcerers and a cleric. I've cast it numerous times. I can remember hitting with it ONE time and being shocked that it actually did something. Usually, it's "I should have known better than to waste that spell slot."
I never intend to actually learn/prepare guiding bolt again on any of my characters. I hate guiding bolt with a passion, and consider it mostly a trap option at a level where you don't have spell slots to waste on misses.
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Dear smart people,
I am making a divine soul sorcerer and want to choose what my 1 main 1st lvl damage spell is going to be.
My party consists of 1 unkown, a Rogue, a Ranger, a Order Domain Cleric & myself.
The damage isn't too diffirent as a guiding bolt does an average of 14 hitpoints and magic missile does an average of 11 force damage.
I know magic missile could be better considering it always hits but hear me out:
By giving the advantage that guiding bolt grants i could give the rogue advantage and thus sneak attack on his attacks in case we are not going to have another front line fighter and I could give the ranger advantage on the attack roll even if he is shooting at an enemy from a distance.
What would be the best thing to do?
I would use guiding bolt. As you said, it deals more damage and everyone likes advantage.
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Magic Missile scales better, as force damage is less commonly resisted than radiant, and you get the guaranteed hit. Also, you can target multiple enemies or you can hit a single spellcaster three times and force three separate Concentration checks.
You'd only cast guiding bolt on something that's hard to hit. If it's hard to hit, it's hard to hit with guiding bolt.
I would go with magic missile. It /always/ does something. Miss with a guiding bolt and all you accomplished was using a spell slot.
Any time an unfathomably powerful entity sweeps in and offers godlike rewards in return for just a few teensy favors, it’s a scam. Unless it’s me. I’d never lie to you, reader dearest.
Tasha
There isnt really a "better" here. It depends on your school of thought. A magic missile automatically hits, so it can be expected to always deal its damage... but it also is negated by a shield spell. If you have an inkling of whether the campaign will deal with spellcasters frequently, then that is also something to consider. It sucks to upcast to a 5th level only for the target to negate it with a shield AND have +5 ac till the start of their next turn.
Guiding bolt requires an attack roll, so it can be a waste of a turn if you miss... but it also can critically hit, making even a low level spell slot do a significant amount of damage (8d6 radiant is pretty dang nice for a lvl1 spell slot).
There are also the aesthetics to consider: do you want several brilliant motes of light flying from you to strike your target? Or do you want to fastball a ball of light at the target/shoot a single beam of divine energy?
Personally, I've never been particularly fond of magic missile. It is a very good spell mechanically, it just doesnt do it for me flavor wise.
One thing to think about where sorcerers are concerned is your metamagic, Ae you planning to take Twin? You can't twin magic missile but you can twin guiding bolt. Does it always hit - no, but when it's twinned and it hits both targets it's very sweet. You do 4d6 radiant damage on two enemies and your party has advantage on both targets. Not a bad way to spend a sorcery point. It's also thematic. A divine soul has divine blood so it makes sense to have a damage spell that is divine.
I appreciated having MM at lower levels because I didn't have metamagic yet. I dropped it when I got twin and never missed it. YMMV. It's about what you think will best suit your character and what you think you will have fun with. MM is better by the numbers but every party and every campaign is different.
You need to be able to hit 75% of the time for Guiding Bolt to match Magic Missile for average damage. At 1st level, that means that unless all your enemies have ACs of 11 or lower, Magic Missile is better for direct damage.
Advantage is less easily quantifiable, but assuming an AC of 16, there’s in increase to the rogue’s expected damage of 25%, so (assuming 1d6+3 weapon damage and 1d6 sneak attack), that’s a boost of 2.5 damage. So against an AC of 16, the expected damage of the guiding bolt itself is 7, plus 2.5 estimated from the advantage, for a total of 9.5, which is still less than Magic Missile’s 10.5.
I’m sure there’s some sweet spot where Guiding Bolt might be better for damage, but Magic Missile will almost always be better, even with advantage.
Now, there are other reasons than damage that advantage might be valuable, so there are definitely cases where Guiding Bolt would be better, but I think those situations are rare enough that overall Magic Missile is the clear winner.
Don't underestimate how good Guiding Bolt is with Twinned Spell. One spell point to double your chance to hit/damage and advantage without any concentration. Better than Chromatic Orb in most circumstances. Magic Missile always hits, but it also always does measly damage, and doesn't help anyone else in the party shine.
One of my favourite parts of playing Divine Soul is having a stack of excellent first-level spells that work well with Twinned Spell for one economical point (Guiding Bolt, Shield of Faith, Sanctuary) compared to the relatively lame Sorcerer spell list at that level. Might as well lean into it.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.
Magic Missile will do more damage, unless you use Metamagic to enhance the Guiding Bolt, due to the fact that it always hits. If you adjust the GB damage to reflect the chances that you miss, it will do less than MM. It also does Force Damage, which 1 monster in the game is immune to and none resist. Also, since it is guaranteed to hit, there is an inherent reliability to it.
On the other hand, Guiding Bolt has a very nice secondary effect, if it works. It is also compatible with Twin Spell (which you should definitely take; it's definitively the best Metamagic), and only requires 1 SP to Twin (although I don't really know if you would want to spend precious SP on this). Also, Radiant damage is (IIRC) the 3rd-least commonly resisted damage type, after Force and Psychic, so you can count on most enemies taking the full damage if you hit.
If it were me, I'd lean towards Guiding Bolt, as I tend to favor effects over pure damage (also, the damage difference is nearly negligible). Also, taking subclass-specific spells can feel slightly cooler, so I'd take Guiding Bolt for sure. The only reason I might not is if the Cleric you mentioned in your party might also take it, and then it would be less unique. Chaos Bolt (a Sorc exclusive) is another spell you might want to look at; it's pretty interesting.
TL;DR: They both have their upsides, but I'd pick Guiding Bolt.
Rogue + Order Cleric creates one of the very very few circumstances where there might be a niche edge case to choose Guiding Bolt over literally anything else, including Magic Missile.
As others have said, Guiding Bolt is unreliable, and largely only helps the party overcome a scenario (high AC single enemy) which cuts against the reliability of landing Guiding Bolt itself in the first place. But while advantage usually just helps people hit more reliably, it also lets a rogue trigger sneak attack damage without the enemy being adjacent to an ally. Which usually, they will be, so even that isn't that useful! Or, some rogue subclasses like Inquisitor or Swashbuckler have special features that let them use Sneak Attack on their turn even without an adjacent ally or advantage! But there may be the odd round where a rogue is unable or unwilling to enable their own sneak attack on their turn, and assuming they're going to be the next ally to attack that enemy, your Guiding Bolt could enable that extra damage.
Adding an Order Cleric into the mix takes that niche scenario and pumps it up a notch. Now, your Guiding Bolt is not only potentially useful for giving the Rogue Sneak Attack on their turn, it also is potentially able to set up the Rogue's Sneak Attack on the Cleric's turn. The Cleric handing the Rogue a reaction attack isn't usually going to let the Rogue use their other tricks to set up Sneak Attack, like a bonus action Hide or Insightful Fighting, so if you can set up advantage with a Guiding Bolt, that's going to be needed in order to make the Rogue an attractive Voice of Authority target... unless, again, Ranger or Cleric or [Unknown] is already standing in melee range of that enemy, in which case you're adding very little.
So like 90%, take Magic Missile. But if your party wants to lead into synergies and wombo combos, maybe you'll get some fun table moments out of Guiding Bolt that make you feel like an essential member of the team.
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I'm going to make this way harder than it needs to be.
1) Voice of Authority can only be used when you cast a 1st level spell or higher that targets an ALLY. Unless you are spiking a Guiding Bolt into the back of your Rogue's head, it won't allow him to make an attack.
2) Advantage helps any attacker, and not just in hitting a high AC foe -- it also increases critical hit chance.
3) Guiding Bolt is one of the best low level blasting spells from ANY spell list. Even forgetting that it grants advantage to the next hit, it does 4d6 Radiant at base level, averaging to 14 damage. That is the most damaging single target spell at first level. It doesn't scale as well as Chromatic Orb or a couple others, but it does scale at the same rate as magic missile (both get +3.5 damage on average per spell slot level above first, though MM does get some swingy-ness due to its unique mechanic). You have to go to AoE spells to do more damage in a round.
4) Guiding bolt can miss, but it can also CRIT. That means that while you can miss your spell (like any other low level character can miss their attack or have the enemy resist a saving throw), you can occasionally do 8d6 damage for a 1st level spell slot... 28 average damage against a single enemy can turn a bad boss fight into a victory, while Magic Missile is stuck doing 10.5 damage on average, and without the ability to increase it (outside of specific class feats like Evocation wizard lvl10).
3) Guiding Bolt does not do 14 damage on average, because it needs to hit to do any damage at all. 5e usually assumes a ~50% hit chance, so Guiding Bolt's average damage is ~7. That's going to change as your hit chance goes up or down, of course, but it's a reasonable simplification of most scenarios.
4) Crits are nice when they happen, but their actual impact on expected damage is negligible. It's a 5% increase in average damage, so that 7 becomes 7.35. Not very impressive. Cognitive biases make the psychological impact of a crit disproportionately great, but it's useful to look at the numbers more rationally (not necessarily to privilege them exclusively, but consideration is valuable).
I think you misread me. My understanding was that the Sorcerer casting Guiding Bolt and the Order Cleric are two different characters. I'm saying that ordinarily the Sorcerer casting Guiding Bolt only helps a Rogue with their SA if the Rogue is the next character in the initiative order. With an Order Cleric in the mix, now the Rogue might pick an SA up from it if they're next in the initiative order (they probably already had a way to enable SA on their own turn) OR if the Order Cleric is next in the initiative order (when the Rogue is less likely to be able to enable an SA, unless an ally is already standing next to the enemy).
As for crits... sorry, they just aren't really relevant when discussing the merits of spells. Crit-fishing is so rare in 5E outside of some very niche melee half-orc builds, so the benefit of Advantage doubling crit chance is hardly worth weighing in your decision making... 5% chance of a crit-> 10% chance of a crit = odds are, nobody's going to crit on the next attack against that enemy either way. Much less the possibility that Guiding Bolt itself might crit.... it just doesn't signifigantly change the expected avg. damage output of the spell. Against an appropriately leveled major enemy in Tier 1 play, your typical sorcerer is going to be attacking with a +5-6 to hit, against AC's anywhere in the 13-18 range. Even giving them the benefit of the 13 AC match ups (hitting on 8+), that means they're missing 35% of the time (0 damage), hitting normally 60% of the time (14 avg. damage per hit), and critting 5% of the time (28 avg. damage per crit). That's what, about 9.2 avg damage per round weighted against AC 13 opponents? Against higher AC 18 opponents, who you're actually going to feel pressured to use the spell against, your avg damage per round would be like.... 6.3 avg damage per round, blech. (*I'm bad at math, someone tell me if I'm not figuring this right).
Meanwhile, Magic Missile always does 10.5 avg damage per round, and it's a reliable 10.5, and a flexible 10.5 that can be split up among multiple targets if needed. Selecting spells around what would be cool to crit with (which quite likely will never happen once over the entirety of your campaign) is wishful thinking.
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I'm going to make this way harder than it needs to be.
Just to sum up what has already been said:
Guiding Bolt Pros
Guiding Bolt Cons
Magic Missile Pros
Magic Missile Cons
A fool pulls the leaves. A brute chops the trunk. A sage digs the roots.
My Improved Lineage System
Magic Missile is more damage on average, when one accounts for actually needing to land a hit. Other than that, sure.
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I'm going to make this way harder than it needs to be.
I wasn't accounting for having to hit. This is kinda hard to phrase but, if you can hit Guiding Bolt deals more damage. For example, you will almost always hit an Ooze due to their low AC, so you would want to deal as much damage per hit as possible. You are correct that the average damage is higher.
A fool pulls the leaves. A brute chops the trunk. A sage digs the roots.
My Improved Lineage System
Also, "emotional impact at the table."
100% of the time that you cast Magic Missile because you've decided it's right for the situation, you accomplish what you set out to do, and feel satisfied.
Somewhere between 30-60% of the time that you cast Guiding Bolt, you miss, waste a spell slot, complain about this f@#$ing d20 and how you swear you'll never use it again, mutter "well that's my turn I guess!", and spend the next 5-10 minutes glaring/sulking.
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I'm going to make this way harder than it needs to be.
Too true.
A fool pulls the leaves. A brute chops the trunk. A sage digs the roots.
My Improved Lineage System
I honestly have never met someone who goes down the minutia of hit chance when considering average damage because hit chance changes from encounter to encounter, target to target.
Also... because of how probability works, an individual can occasionally see a disparity in the expected number of hits and the actual number of hits. Some people roll consistently bad. Each die roll has a 5% chance to result in a given number on the d20, but if you roll 100 d20's you very much can see deviations from the expected average value. When we are talking low levels, you only have a couple spell slots, you can EASILY roll five or less when looking at a sample size that small... does that mean that we should consider the average damage of Attack Roll spells as 0 because we never hit? This is why looking at the effect of the spell when it has an effect is more useful. Your same argument could be applied to 'save or suck spells' like hold person. Sure it paralyzes him, but you have a 50% chance of it not working, so why bother using it at all?
Sure, lets take your version for average damage. Magic Missile does 10.5 and Guiding Bolt does 7.35. A difference of 3.15 damage. Guiding Bolt still grants advantage to the next hit. That could be anything from a 1 damage Sorcerer Slap to a variant human Great Weapon Master to another cast of Guiding Bolt from another party member. In most cases that extra 3 points of damage will be paid forward as a direct result of your cast, as advantage boosts average damage as well using your to-hit basis.
And what about the Shield spell? Sure it will make Guiding Bolt much less likely to hit, but it completely negates the Magic Missile spell. I'm not saying that players always find themselves fighting casters, but rather that there is ALSO a situation that reduces Magic Missile's damage completely, while Guiding Bolt gets to see its average damage simply plummet... but not to zero. If we are going to look at the 'misses' of attack rolls we need to also consider the situations where Magic Missile 'misses'.
This is why I just look at the bald effect of a given ability instead of mathing out hit percentages -- there is ALWAYS going to be some situation that alters the equation, and not just in a niche sense as there are many DIFFERENT factors that can arise on regular basis. Things like cover, advantage/disadvantage, direct counters, unforeseen resistance or immunity... It is a level of granularity that is an interesting exercise but less than practical.
This. Every bit of it. I've taken guiding bolt several times between two sorcerers and a cleric. I've cast it numerous times. I can remember hitting with it ONE time and being shocked that it actually did something. Usually, it's "I should have known better than to waste that spell slot."
I never intend to actually learn/prepare guiding bolt again on any of my characters. I hate guiding bolt with a passion, and consider it mostly a trap option at a level where you don't have spell slots to waste on misses.
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Tasha