I'm not changing anything, I'm merely pointing out the flaw in the assumption that an elf samurai would do some ridiculously low number like 126 in a round. Also, it's somewhat flawed to assumed an elven samurai would take CBE since that conflicts with fighting spirit activation.
For me I am giving the fighter the absolutely best round possible.
And yes 126 as thats how the math shakes out vs. an AC of 23.
Mage Armor + 20 Dex = 18 AC Shield reaction = 23 AC
I showed what I entered in the calculator and thats what came up...which was much higher than the champ fighter BTW.
Overall fighter is the king of consistent damage...not Nova damage. The Samurai is the best Nova build fighter there is especially with a ranged weapon.
You are correct that likely just a longbow would be a better use for a single round damage as you get to add on average 1 point of damage to each roll if they hit.
Damage conversations are always funny to me because no one ever wants to account for AC and actual chance to hit....It doesn't matter if your GWM build CAN put out massive damage if they are going to miss 60% of the time lol.
It's also really silly to keep trying to make these comparisons without having established perimeters for each side. Are we using magic items or not? What subclasses? What feats are allowed? (since the fighter's strength seems at least partially tied to what they can "generally" do versus what a specific build can do). Are we talking about what it's like for a level 20 fighter to engage a level 20 wizard that is going about their day? Or are we dropping them in a white room and rolling for initiative?
While its still an uphill battle, I actually really like Arcane Archer. Take Fey Touched for Hex and Misty Step, and you can pump out enough uninterupted damage to take down a wizard before they can act. You would need the wizard to fail against two DC 19 Charisma rolls, but is a reasonable expectation, even with portents in play.
Since you don't get advantage, the damage between Sharpshooter and standard shots are about equal vs 23 AC. 3 ASIs + Fey touched gets you Dex 20 / Int 20. You have 3 remaining ASIs. I like Resilient: Wis and Resilient: Cha. If we know the enemy subclass and they choose Chronurgy, I would want
Combined with Hex against an AC of 23, each attack deals an average of 7.55 damage. If 142 is our target, we need 19 total attacks to kill. Two Banishing arrows will provide 14 points of damage, so we only need 17 attacks to kill a 142 HP target, and we can pretty easily get 18-20 attacks. Against the Hobgoblin variant with 162 HP and 24 AC, we can be a Goblin and use Fury of the Small for the final burst of damage.
That comes out to 18+ attacks plus two banishing arrows for 150+ damage average.
Convergent Future won't help defensively, as it removes your ability to shield. If you do that, we just activate Sharpshooter and shred you to pieces, then double up on banishing arrow on the last two attacks. The extra damage means we only need one Banishing Arrow to succeed, and you can't use CF on both.
Resilient: Wis + Indomitable helps against Temporal Shunt, if that is in play. And if Temporal Shunt fails, its an immediate game over for the wizard.
Now... for scenarios where the wizard goes first: If the wizard leads with Invulnerability, then Banishing arrow pretty handily negates it. We then get 16 attacks off before the wizard can act again. That is unfortunately a teensy bit shy of the damage that we need, so on average the wizard gets another turn, but is missing their 9th level spell and has done nothing to the fighter yet. However, we only need to roll a bit above average on damage rolls for 16 attacks to secure a kill.
For things like Wall of Force and Force Cage, we have Misty Step from Fey Touched. Resilient: Cha and indomitable help try to succeed on the save to escape the cage.
The Arcane Archer needs rolls to tip their way, but its by no means a done deal for the wizard. If we know a little more about what wizard we are going to face, we can pick slightly more targeted feats, as we are much more flexible with ASIs than wizards are.
Can you use Convergent Future to set the Fighter's Initiative 1 lower than your own so that they automatically go second?
Aethelwolf you do not have time to get off 18-20 attacks. You have one round. Then invulnerability goes up and you can't touch the wizard for 10 minutes while they subject you to spell after spell after spell.
"The creature hit by the arrow must also succeed on a Charisma saving throw or be banished. While banished in this way, its speed is 0, and it is incapacitated. At the end of its next turn, the target reappears in the space it vacated or in the nearest unoccupied space if that space is occupied."
Round 1: 7-8 attacks, Use banishing arrow on the 7th or 8th. Wizard loses their turn incapacitated, reappears at the end of it.
Round 2: 7-8 attacks, Use banishing arrow on the 7th or 8th. Wizard loses their turn incapacitated, reappears at the end of it.
Round 3: 4 attacks
If the wizard goes first and uses invulnerability, you get 15-16 Attacks that actually deal damage.
Round 1: Up to 4 attacks, use banishing arrow when you hit. Break Concentration on invulnerability, and wizard loses turn incapacitated.
Round 2: 7-8 attacks, Use banishing arrow on the 7th or 8th. Wizard loses their turn incapacitated, reappears at the end of it.
Round 3: 8 attacks
Convergent Future and Initiative is really vague, IMO, but I don't think it works. Initiative isn't really a 'pass/fail' check like most checks. There is no explicit DC, and it isn't considered a contested skill check like Grappling. "Success might mean different things to different people (maybe I want to go third?). You also don't know what the minimum to 'succeed' is until after you use the feature. Would love some more official ruling on this, but I can't find anything.
Can you use Convergent Future to set the Fighter's Initiative 1 lower than your own so that they automatically go second?
Aethelwolf you do not have time to get off 18-20 attacks. You have one round. Then invulnerability goes up and you can't touch the wizard for 10 minutes while they subject you to spell after spell after spell.
As there's no DC for initiative, no, Convergent Future doesn't work for that. However, Temporal Shunt will shut down almost any Fighter quite easily.
"The creature hit by the arrow must also succeed on a Charisma saving throw or be banished. While banished in this way, its speed is 0, and it is incapacitated. At the end of its next turn, the target reappears in the space it vacated or in the nearest unoccupied space if that space is occupied."
Round 1: 7-8 attacks, Use banishing arrow on the 7th or 8th. Wizard loses their turn incapacitated, reappears at the end of it.
Round 2: 7-8 attacks, Use banishing arrow on the 7th or 8th. Wizard loses their turn incapacitated, reappears at the end of it.
Round 3: 4 attacks
If the wizard goes first and uses invulnerability, you get 15-16 Attacks that actually deal damage.
Round 1: Up to 4 attacks, use banishing arrow when you hit. Break Concentration on invulnerability, and wizard loses turn incapacitated.
Round 2: 7-8 attacks, Use banishing arrow on the 7th or 8th. Wizard loses their turn incapacitated, reappears at the end of it.
Round 3: 8 attacks
Convergent Future and Initiative is really vague, IMO, but I don't think it works. Initiative isn't really a 'pass/fail' check like most checks. There is no explicit DC, and it isn't considered a contested skill check like Grappling. "Success might mean different things to different people (maybe I want to go third?). You also don't know what the minimum to 'succeed' is until after you use the feature. Would love some more official ruling on this, but I can't find anything.
Chrono wizard can use their abeance to summon a tiny hut and wreak this build:
When you cast a spell using a spell slot of 4th level or lower, you can condense the spell’s magic into a mote. The spell is frozen in time at the moment of casting and held within a gray bead for 1 hour. This bead is a Tiny object with AC 15 and 1 hit point, and it is immune to poison and psychic damage. When the duration ends, or if the bead is destroyed, it vanishes in a flash of light, and the spell is lost.
A creature holding the bead can use its action to release the spell within, whereupon the bead disappears. The spell uses your spell attack bonus and save DC, and the spell treats the creature who released it as the caster for all other purpose
Once you create a bead with this feature, you can’t do so again until you finish a short or long rest.s.
If a wizard is allowed to spend time staging a bunch of spells and features beforehand, this topic is moot. Of course they are going to win if they get an extra 10+ turns.
If a wizard is allowed to spend time staging a bunch of spells and features beforehand, this topic is moot. Of course they are going to win if they get an extra 10+ turns.
That's kinda the point of this though.... The wizard will always have contingency plans because they are a Wizard.
Even an unprepared wizard will still dominate a fighter 99% of the time due to the crazy power scaling of Spells.
I had a whole post in the works but my copy of the damage calculator spreadsheet became a mess and I scrapped it.
The Arcane Archer wasn't doing enough damage to down a 16 constitution Wizard over 3 rounds with Mage Armor.
If the Wizard has 16 constitution and the tough feat then the Arcane Archer can't down the Wizard without Mage Armor unless it manages to get a crit on one of its Banishing Shots.
And this is all assuming that both Banishing Shots hit, and that both saves are failed.
Mage Armor Wizard with 16 Con and 20 Dex has 142 HP and 23 AC with Shield.
Arcane Archer has a +13 to hit. Using average damage rolls, you get 50% hit chance for 13 damage (1d8 + 1d6 + 5), 5% crit for 21 damage, and 45% miss chance. That comes out to an avg damage of 7.55 per attack. Factoring in Banishing Arrow damage (4d6 = 14) , you need exactly 17 attacks to deal 142.35 damage with average rolls.
Banishing Arrow doesn't have to be declared until you hit, so you can't "miss" with it. You do need to be cognizant of when you use it, but I factor that in below. The save is highly likely to fail (DC 19 Cha on a wizard that has a +0 Cha save). The wizard might try saving a Convergent Future against Banishing Arrow, but that gets into an odd risk/reward scenario with Sharpshooter vs no Shield and a potential 1 round kill. I'll set that aside for now and just note that it is a possibility.
Since you only need 17 attacks, you can afford to attempt Banishing Arrow on the 6th, 7th, or 8th attack of round 1, depending on when you hit. This nets you a 91% chance of successfully "hitting" with the arrow, and an 90% chance of the wizard failing the save, for an 82% chance you will successfully banish the wizard. Depending on when you used it round 1, you can try as early as 5th attack on round 2 (and as late as 7th), making for an approximately equal chance of success. The chance of two back to back banishes is therefore ~67%. Two banishes is enough to get in all of our attacks, so if the fighter goes first and deals average damage, he will win 67% of the time. That's pretty good.
Going second against a Chronogist is much harder, since they can convergent future the banishing arrow after putting up invulnerability. Your only hope is to hold your action in to blow both banishing shots within 1 reaction period, but that gives the wizard an extra turn to cast a spell AND ruins your combo, most likely giving them yet ANOTHER turn. They have no 9th levels, but your chances still drop drastically. Assuming Chronogist is legal for this and knowing I might go up against one, I might swap around feats to get Alert to maximize my chance of going first.
Against other subclasses, the fighter does alright even when going second. We need to spend our final open feat on Lucky in order to get enough damage, (and also to survive certain spells). We need the equivalent of 18 attacks across rounds 2 and 3, since invulnerability prevents the first banishing arrow damage. Two Luck points on misses will barely get us there, leaving the third luck point for flexibility. If Temporal Shunt is a thing, we will spend it against that, giving us a 79% success rate (64% against a bad portent). Our double banishing chance in this scenario is about the same, if not slightly better (since we get 4 tries on the first round, where damage doesn't matter). Combine that with our 79% success rate at avoiding the Shunt, and you get a 53% win ratewhen up against Invulnerable wizard who goes first, or 43% against a bad portent. Much better than other fighter builds I have seen.
Against Force Cage, it is largely the same thing: we just need to pass our Cha save when teleporting out with Misty Step and we can immediately go into our standard salvo. That's another 79% success rate (64% against a bad portent), for the same 53% win ratewhen up against Force Cage wizard who goes first, or 43% against a bad portent.
If people want to throw other turn 1 openings besides Invulnerable or Force Cage, as well as other reaction tactics or builds they think perform better for a wizard, I'm happy to look at them. I haven't attempted to plan for everything and there may be other tactics that do better and shut this down. Those are just the two most common tactics I've seen in this topic. If the fight is done indoors with a low ceiling, Prismatic Wall comes to mind as pretty tough to deal with. I am, however, ignoring prep time spells with large setup, like Contingency, Simulacrums, etc, because those are usually irrelevant and unhelpful to discussions like these. 1v1 'who would win' arena fights don't generally give characters a bunch of free actions before combat starts, because you can always prep more, craft more, etc. 1v1 topics are usually "Drop two fresh level 20s in arena at 30ish feet of spacing, go at it."
Lastly, a 19+ portent will the hurt the fighter pretty bad because it lets the wizard avoid the Banishing Arrow. If they have a second quality portent to also win initiative, then the game is likely over. Going second against a 19 portent will be incredibly tough to beat and I'm not sure if we can get around it, but going first against them should still offer a feasible chance of victory.
I agree that this comparison should be done in a white room scenario, if only to make the contest at least a little interesting. I disagree that it is "irrelevant or unhelpful" to discuss what would happen if a fighter would try and jump a wizard going about their day however. Really, what is irrelevant and unhelpful are white room arena fights because they do not reflect what it's like to play these classes in the middle of a campaign. But they can be fun to entertain.
I forgot about hex. I'll concede that. Also I misunderstood how Arcane Shots work, so fair points all around. Personally, I think the math around your hit rate and the need to name the Banishing Shot near the end of each sequence makes it weird for you to state a win rate so definitively.
How do you have a 53% win rate against a wizard that goes first and casts invulnerability though? You literally can't touch them. I remember you saying something about breaking concentration but I'm failing to see how you force a single concentration save against an enemy that is immune to damage. I don't think it's necessary to discuss any other first turn spell options and the potential win rate against an Arcane Archer. The wizard will cast invulnerability and be untouchable. As I see it, the Arcane Archer has 0% win rate against any wizard that foes first (or manages to get a single turn).
In terms of feats, the Wizard doesn't even need to stretch into anything weird or specialized to make this all irrelevant. Grab Tough and the wizard has more HP than the Arcane Archer can chew through even when everything goes right.
Mage Armor Wizard with 16 Con and 20 Dex has 142 HP and 23 AC with Shield.
Arcane Archer has a +13 to hit. Using average damage rolls, you get 50% hit chance for 13 damage (1d8 + 1d6 + 5), 5% crit for 21 damage, and 45% miss chance. That comes out to an avg damage of 7.55 per attack. Factoring in Banishing Arrow damage (4d6 = 14) , you need exactly 17 attacks to deal 142.35 damage with average rolls.
Banishing Arrow doesn't have to be declared until you hit, so you can't "miss" with it. You do need to be cognizant of when you use it, but I factor that in below. The save is highly likely to fail (DC 19 Cha on a wizard that has a +0 Cha save). The wizard might try saving a Convergent Future against Banishing Arrow, but that gets into an odd risk/reward scenario with Sharpshooter vs no Shield and a potential 1 round kill. I'll set that aside for now and just note that it is a possibility.
Since you only need 17 attacks, you can afford to attempt Banishing Arrow on the 6th, 7th, or 8th attack of round 1, depending on when you hit. This nets you a 91% chance of successfully "hitting" with the arrow, and an 90% chance of the wizard failing the save, for an 82% chance you will successfully banish the wizard. Depending on when you used it round 1, you can try as early as 5th attack on round 2 (and as late as 7th), making for an approximately equal chance of success. The chance of two back to back banishes is therefore ~67%. Two banishes is enough to get in all of our attacks, so if the fighter goes first and deals average damage, he will win 67% of the time. That's pretty good.
Going second against a Chronogist is much harder, since they can convergent future the banishing arrow after putting up invulnerability. Your only hope is to hold your action in to blow both banishing shots within 1 reaction period, but that gives the wizard an extra turn to cast a spell AND ruins your combo, most likely giving them yet ANOTHER turn. They have no 9th levels, but your chances still drop drastically. Assuming Chronogist is legal for this and knowing I might go up against one, I might swap around feats to get Alert to maximize my chance of going first.
Against other subclasses, the fighter does alright even when going second. We need to spend our final open feat on Lucky in order to get enough damage, (and also to survive certain spells). We need the equivalent of 18 attacks across rounds 2 and 3, since invulnerability prevents the first banishing arrow damage. Two Luck points on misses will barely get us there, leaving the third luck point for flexibility. If Temporal Shunt is a thing, we will spend it against that, giving us a 79% success rate (64% against a bad portent). Our double banishing chance in this scenario is about the same, if not slightly better (since we get 4 tries on the first round, where damage doesn't matter). Combine that with our 79% success rate at avoiding the Shunt, and you get a 53% win ratewhen up against Invulnerable wizard who goes first, or 43% against a bad portent. Much better than other fighter builds I have seen.
Against Force Cage, it is largely the same thing: we just need to pass our Cha save when teleporting out with Misty Step and we can immediately go into our standard salvo. That's another 79% success rate (64% against a bad portent), for the same 53% win ratewhen up against Force Cage wizard who goes first, or 43% against a bad portent.
If people want to throw other turn 1 openings besides Invulnerable or Force Cage, as well as other reaction tactics or builds they think perform better for a wizard, I'm happy to look at them. I haven't attempted to plan for everything and there may be other tactics that do better and shut this down. Those are just the two most common tactics I've seen in this topic. If the fight is done indoors with a low ceiling, Prismatic Wall comes to mind as pretty tough to deal with. I am, however, ignoring prep time spells with large setup, like Contingency, Simulacrums, etc, because those are usually irrelevant and unhelpful to discussions like these. 1v1 'who would win' arena fights don't generally give characters a bunch of free actions before combat starts, because you can always prep more, craft more, etc. 1v1 topics are usually "Drop two fresh level 20s in arena at 30ish feet of spacing, go at it."
Lastly, a 19+ portent will the hurt the fighter pretty bad because it lets the wizard avoid the Banishing Arrow. If they have a second quality portent to also win initiative, then the game is likely over. Going second against a 19 portent will be incredibly tough to beat and I'm not sure if we can get around it, but going first against them should still offer a feasible chance of victory.
1. How are you getting Hex? Fey Touched? So they have a single instance to use the Hex and if they drop it a huge amount of damage is gone for them? 2. You are assuming a 100% failure rate of the wizard against the CHA save for Banishing?
So factoring in the AC you are looking at an average of 60 damage without advantage (as you have no source of it) you are looking at a measly 60 DPR...which is...something I guess.
This means that even burning two rounds of attacks with action surge you will only put out ~120 damage for full fury.
Also the chrono wizard could simply just take another level of exhaustion...its only halves movement which is not really a worry as the fight will be over as soon as they go anyway.
With legendary actions and resistances they are simply going to just wipe the floor with the fighter.
Pretty much every build I have seen for fighter has boiled down to: "If these 10 things happen exactly as I need them to, the 20th level wizard with god like intelligence has absolutely 0 prep time, and has not used any of its long standing abilites the fighter will win approximately 50% of the time!"
Like I get it....you want the fighter to win to justify the idea that they worth going all the way to 20 with....but honestly once 6th level spells come into play martials are just mostly blown out of the water at that point. Its not fair either I get it...I hate playing beyond level 12 for that very reason and its a big reason why 99% of games will not reach level 15. Its not a well balanced tier and it makes most martials into shadows of casters.
The real world scenario is that the wizard has things prepared for this fight just like any player would. They would have a simulacrum because why wouldn't you?
Thats the real potential for wizards as they are masters of planning ahead and if the only way the fighter actually has a slim chance of winning you have to ignore the majority of the features given to them by high level spell casting....which is a pretty big advantage to fighter and even then we are looking at a 50% chance of winning?
How do you have a 53% win rate against a wizard that goes first and casts invulnerability though?
A successful Banishing arrow hit breaks concentration, as it incapacitates the wizard. If the only thing a wizard does round 1 is cast Invulnerability, then we break it with our first turn, then rely on pumping out enough damage over two full turns. My math showed a perfect 142 with Lucky and average damage. I then factored in a Temporal Shunt save round 1. They can attempt temporal shunts on rounds 2 and 3, but it removes shield and we have a pretty good chance to save against it, at which point our damage will skyrocket thanks to the wizard having no shield.
142 with 16 Con was my original target that you offered to me, and you just changed it to 14 Con and Tough on Vhuman. That's absolutely fine to keep tweaking builds to alter the matchup, and I can look at things further in a bit, but I think I gave a fair analysis of the initial matchup. I still beat out Tough when going first, but I need to find a little bit more damage against Tough when going second. Luckily, the Tough build has dumped Charisma, so I can probably afford to drop some Int points and look at other feats.
1. How are you getting Hex? Fey Touched? So they have a single instance to use the Hex and if they drop it a huge amount of damage is gone for them? 2. You are assuming a 100% failure rate of the wizard against the CHA save for Banishing?
So factoring in the AC you are looking at an average of 60 damage without advantage (as you have no source of it) you are looking at a measly 60 DPR...which is...something I guess.
This means that even burning two rounds of attacks with action surge you will only put out ~120 damage for full fury.
Also the chrono wizard could simply just take another level of exhaustion...its only halves movement which is not really a worry as the fight will be over as soon as they go anyway.
The build I offered relies on killing across an uninterrupted 2-3 rounds. The wizard gets no actions between when Hex is cast and when he dies. Hellish Rebuke would be the only way to interrupt it, but that would increase my DPR by having the wizard drop shield, and I wouldn't need Hex to get the kill.
I assumed a 90% success rate on the Banishing arrow save. With your build, it actually increases to 95% (-1 Cha save). I then factored in hit chance and how much HP you have to burn through (I was operating under 142) in order to get my final 67% success rate of double banishing and killing.
My damages are completely accurate and match your calculator: 60 DPR for Action Surge rounds (its actually 68 if you use 1 Luck Point each round). The build relies on getting three rounds of uninterrupted damage thanks to Banishing Arrow. With 2 Luck Points, that's a total of 2 full rounds of 68 DPR and 1 small round of 30 DPR, or 166 damage. Add in two banishing arrows to reach 180 damage. That's if both my banishing arrows hit on my 8th attack each round. To hedge that bet, I can start my Banishing arrows attempt on 7th attack if it hits, and still get out and expected 165 damage from the full combo. There's a 79% chance I will hit on 7th or 8th attack, and a 95% chance of banishing. That's a 56% chance of success for a double banish, which is enough to kill a Tough wizard.
Like I've said to HeironymusZot, this was an initial take at the build thrown at me, which was a 142 HP wizard. Against a Convergent Future AND Tough, I'd have to look out a bit further, as even if he doesn't burn shield on round 1, I can't one round him with average damage. If the wizard doesn't immediately shield, I would burn all three Luck points in my opening salvo Sharpshooter hits, and would burn a saveless arrow that deals more damage instead of Banishing arrow. Average rolls will put me a little under my target (~157), but I only need a bit above average to win and I don't have to deal with any other fail points like saving against spells or banishing arrow being saved against. I'd start looking at changing out Feats against a Chronogist to get a bit more damage, as I don't need 20 Int if they are burning Convergent Future on saves. I'll look further on this to see if its possible to eek out a few more points of damage.
None of the above is "if 10 things go perfectly for me". Of my initial numbers, all of my rolls are likely to succeed, I use average damage, and my total final percentages factor in every small but compounding fail point. They are accurate.
I am not trying to claim that this fighter just crushes all wizards and is the super favored matchup to win, and readily admitted there are other wizard tactics I hadn't gone over yet that could shift the odds, so stop oofing. There's no need for that. I presented a strong build against one common wizard build and opening, which was said to be a death sentence against fighters. For normally being written off as an autoloss in this scenario, I think the chances I've presented are pretty dang good.
Ancient Brass Dragon is a great example of another powerful opening thanks to its legendary saves - thanks for that. I don't currently have a way to drop its concentration. Drow High Magic is the only option I can think of the top of my head, and that one is a big risk, with only a 20% success rate (36% with Luck). It also forces banishing arrows into my last attack each turn, thanks to the damage loss I have for Dispelling, and still needs me to eek out a few extra points of damage while sacrificing Int to get Drow High Magic. All in all, this one is a strong opening that heavily favors the wizard if they go first, and does mean that I need like 10 things to go right in order to win. Not impossible, but pretty unlikely.
If you are using Sharpshooter then the damage ratios would change and likely lower with an AC of 23 just FYI. Its actually better to probably just shoot normally vs. taking the sharpshooter penalty at that high of an AC.
Otherwise I appreciate your thoughtful response and I apologize if I came across as hostile. You are definitely right that the arcane archer likely has the best shot at defeating the wizard based on what you have presented as their banishing arrow is something that would likely be hard to counter as wizard as it is not a spell!
I th ink we can both agree that in general a wizard will likely win in a general scenario just due to the sheer number of options afforded to them. A fighter does have a decent chance if they are going first and get some good damage rolls though as you have presented.
Sharpshooter only exists for if the wizard attempts a reaction other than shield, like Convergent Future or Temporal Shunt. In those cases, the wizard only has 18 AC and Sharpshooter has a higher damage output. Otherwise, you are correct, shooting normally is best.
And yep, I think wizard has the overall advantage in the fight, especially if Chronogist is allowed. That +15 initiative in your build in definitely hard to overcome, and the dragon opening is I think stronger than some of the other openings presented.
Sharpshooter only exists for if the wizard attempts a reaction other than shield, like Convergent Future or Temporal Shunt. In those cases, the wizard only has 18 AC and Sharpshooter has a higher damage output. Otherwise, you are correct, shooting normally is best.
And yep, I think wizard has the overall advantage in the fight, especially if Chronogist is allowed. That +15 initiative in your build in definitely hard to overcome, and the dragon opening is I think stronger than some of the other openings presented.
Your arcane archer post has given me more respect for the subclass!
For me I am giving the fighter the absolutely best round possible.
And yes 126 as thats how the math shakes out vs. an AC of 23.
Mage Armor + 20 Dex = 18 AC
Shield reaction = 23 AC
I showed what I entered in the calculator and thats what came up...which was much higher than the champ fighter BTW.
Overall fighter is the king of consistent damage...not Nova damage. The Samurai is the best Nova build fighter there is especially with a ranged weapon.
You are correct that likely just a longbow would be a better use for a single round damage as you get to add on average 1 point of damage to each roll if they hit.
Damage conversations are always funny to me because no one ever wants to account for AC and actual chance to hit....It doesn't matter if your GWM build CAN put out massive damage if they are going to miss 60% of the time lol.
That damage calculator is brilliant.
It's also really silly to keep trying to make these comparisons without having established perimeters for each side. Are we using magic items or not? What subclasses? What feats are allowed? (since the fighter's strength seems at least partially tied to what they can "generally" do versus what a specific build can do). Are we talking about what it's like for a level 20 fighter to engage a level 20 wizard that is going about their day? Or are we dropping them in a white room and rolling for initiative?
While its still an uphill battle, I actually really like Arcane Archer. Take Fey Touched for Hex and Misty Step, and you can pump out enough uninterupted damage to take down a wizard before they can act. You would need the wizard to fail against two DC 19 Charisma rolls, but is a reasonable expectation, even with portents in play.
Since you don't get advantage, the damage between Sharpshooter and standard shots are about equal vs 23 AC. 3 ASIs + Fey touched gets you Dex 20 / Int 20. You have 3 remaining ASIs. I like Resilient: Wis and Resilient: Cha. If we know the enemy subclass and they choose Chronurgy, I would want
Combined with Hex against an AC of 23, each attack deals an average of 7.55 damage. If 142 is our target, we need 19 total attacks to kill. Two Banishing arrows will provide 14 points of damage, so we only need 17 attacks to kill a 142 HP target, and we can pretty easily get 18-20 attacks. Against the Hobgoblin variant with 162 HP and 24 AC, we can be a Goblin and use Fury of the Small for the final burst of damage.
That comes out to 18+ attacks plus two banishing arrows for 150+ damage average.
Convergent Future won't help defensively, as it removes your ability to shield. If you do that, we just activate Sharpshooter and shred you to pieces, then double up on banishing arrow on the last two attacks. The extra damage means we only need one Banishing Arrow to succeed, and you can't use CF on both.
Resilient: Wis + Indomitable helps against Temporal Shunt, if that is in play. And if Temporal Shunt fails, its an immediate game over for the wizard.
Now... for scenarios where the wizard goes first: If the wizard leads with Invulnerability, then Banishing arrow pretty handily negates it. We then get 16 attacks off before the wizard can act again. That is unfortunately a teensy bit shy of the damage that we need, so on average the wizard gets another turn, but is missing their 9th level spell and has done nothing to the fighter yet. However, we only need to roll a bit above average on damage rolls for 16 attacks to secure a kill.
For things like Wall of Force and Force Cage, we have Misty Step from Fey Touched. Resilient: Cha and indomitable help try to succeed on the save to escape the cage.
The Arcane Archer needs rolls to tip their way, but its by no means a done deal for the wizard. If we know a little more about what wizard we are going to face, we can pick slightly more targeted feats, as we are much more flexible with ASIs than wizards are.
Can you use Convergent Future to set the Fighter's Initiative 1 lower than your own so that they automatically go second?
Aethelwolf you do not have time to get off 18-20 attacks. You have one round. Then invulnerability goes up and you can't touch the wizard for 10 minutes while they subject you to spell after spell after spell.
Banishing Arrow
"The creature hit by the arrow must also succeed on a Charisma saving throw or be banished. While banished in this way, its speed is 0, and it is incapacitated. At the end of its next turn, the target reappears in the space it vacated or in the nearest unoccupied space if that space is occupied."
If the wizard goes first and uses invulnerability, you get 15-16 Attacks that actually deal damage.
Convergent Future and Initiative is really vague, IMO, but I don't think it works. Initiative isn't really a 'pass/fail' check like most checks. There is no explicit DC, and it isn't considered a contested skill check like Grappling. "Success might mean different things to different people (maybe I want to go third?). You also don't know what the minimum to 'succeed' is until after you use the feature. Would love some more official ruling on this, but I can't find anything.
As there's no DC for initiative, no, Convergent Future doesn't work for that. However, Temporal Shunt will shut down almost any Fighter quite easily.
Please check out my homebrew, I would appreciate feedback:
Spells, Monsters, Subclasses, Races, Arcknight Class, Occultist Class, World, Enigmatic Esoterica forms
Chrono wizard can use their abeance to summon a tiny hut and wreak this build:
When you cast a spell using a spell slot of 4th level or lower, you can condense the spell’s magic into a mote. The spell is frozen in time at the moment of casting and held within a gray bead for 1 hour. This bead is a Tiny object with AC 15 and 1 hit point, and it is immune to poison and psychic damage. When the duration ends, or if the bead is destroyed, it vanishes in a flash of light, and the spell is lost.
A creature holding the bead can use its action to release the spell within, whereupon the bead disappears. The spell uses your spell attack bonus and save DC, and the spell treats the creature who released it as the caster for all other purpose
Once you create a bead with this feature, you can’t do so again until you finish a short or long rest.s.
If a wizard is allowed to spend time staging a bunch of spells and features beforehand, this topic is moot. Of course they are going to win if they get an extra 10+ turns.
That's kinda the point of this though.... The wizard will always have contingency plans because they are a Wizard.
Even an unprepared wizard will still dominate a fighter 99% of the time due to the crazy power scaling of Spells.
I had a whole post in the works but my copy of the damage calculator spreadsheet became a mess and I scrapped it.
The Arcane Archer wasn't doing enough damage to down a 16 constitution Wizard over 3 rounds with Mage Armor.
If the Wizard has 16 constitution and the tough feat then the Arcane Archer can't down the Wizard without Mage Armor unless it manages to get a crit on one of its Banishing Shots.
And this is all assuming that both Banishing Shots hit, and that both saves are failed.
Uphill battle is putting it mildly.
Are you including Hex damage for every attack?
Mage Armor Wizard with 16 Con and 20 Dex has 142 HP and 23 AC with Shield.
Arcane Archer has a +13 to hit. Using average damage rolls, you get 50% hit chance for 13 damage (1d8 + 1d6 + 5), 5% crit for 21 damage, and 45% miss chance. That comes out to an avg damage of 7.55 per attack. Factoring in Banishing Arrow damage (4d6 = 14) , you need exactly 17 attacks to deal 142.35 damage with average rolls.
Banishing Arrow doesn't have to be declared until you hit, so you can't "miss" with it. You do need to be cognizant of when you use it, but I factor that in below. The save is highly likely to fail (DC 19 Cha on a wizard that has a +0 Cha save). The wizard might try saving a Convergent Future against Banishing Arrow, but that gets into an odd risk/reward scenario with Sharpshooter vs no Shield and a potential 1 round kill. I'll set that aside for now and just note that it is a possibility.
Since you only need 17 attacks, you can afford to attempt Banishing Arrow on the 6th, 7th, or 8th attack of round 1, depending on when you hit. This nets you a 91% chance of successfully "hitting" with the arrow, and an 90% chance of the wizard failing the save, for an 82% chance you will successfully banish the wizard. Depending on when you used it round 1, you can try as early as 5th attack on round 2 (and as late as 7th), making for an approximately equal chance of success. The chance of two back to back banishes is therefore ~67%. Two banishes is enough to get in all of our attacks, so if the fighter goes first and deals average damage, he will win 67% of the time. That's pretty good.
Going second against a Chronogist is much harder, since they can convergent future the banishing arrow after putting up invulnerability. Your only hope is to hold your action in to blow both banishing shots within 1 reaction period, but that gives the wizard an extra turn to cast a spell AND ruins your combo, most likely giving them yet ANOTHER turn. They have no 9th levels, but your chances still drop drastically. Assuming Chronogist is legal for this and knowing I might go up against one, I might swap around feats to get Alert to maximize my chance of going first.
Against other subclasses, the fighter does alright even when going second. We need to spend our final open feat on Lucky in order to get enough damage, (and also to survive certain spells). We need the equivalent of 18 attacks across rounds 2 and 3, since invulnerability prevents the first banishing arrow damage. Two Luck points on misses will barely get us there, leaving the third luck point for flexibility. If Temporal Shunt is a thing, we will spend it against that, giving us a 79% success rate (64% against a bad portent). Our double banishing chance in this scenario is about the same, if not slightly better (since we get 4 tries on the first round, where damage doesn't matter). Combine that with our 79% success rate at avoiding the Shunt, and you get a 53% win rate when up against Invulnerable wizard who goes first, or 43% against a bad portent. Much better than other fighter builds I have seen.
Against Force Cage, it is largely the same thing: we just need to pass our Cha save when teleporting out with Misty Step and we can immediately go into our standard salvo. That's another 79% success rate (64% against a bad portent), for the same 53% win rate when up against Force Cage wizard who goes first, or 43% against a bad portent.
If people want to throw other turn 1 openings besides Invulnerable or Force Cage, as well as other reaction tactics or builds they think perform better for a wizard, I'm happy to look at them. I haven't attempted to plan for everything and there may be other tactics that do better and shut this down. Those are just the two most common tactics I've seen in this topic. If the fight is done indoors with a low ceiling, Prismatic Wall comes to mind as pretty tough to deal with. I am, however, ignoring prep time spells with large setup, like Contingency, Simulacrums, etc, because those are usually irrelevant and unhelpful to discussions like these. 1v1 'who would win' arena fights don't generally give characters a bunch of free actions before combat starts, because you can always prep more, craft more, etc. 1v1 topics are usually "Drop two fresh level 20s in arena at 30ish feet of spacing, go at it."
Lastly, a 19+ portent will the hurt the fighter pretty bad because it lets the wizard avoid the Banishing Arrow. If they have a second quality portent to also win initiative, then the game is likely over. Going second against a 19 portent will be incredibly tough to beat and I'm not sure if we can get around it, but going first against them should still offer a feasible chance of victory.
I agree that this comparison should be done in a white room scenario, if only to make the contest at least a little interesting. I disagree that it is "irrelevant or unhelpful" to discuss what would happen if a fighter would try and jump a wizard going about their day however. Really, what is irrelevant and unhelpful are white room arena fights because they do not reflect what it's like to play these classes in the middle of a campaign. But they can be fun to entertain.
I forgot about hex. I'll concede that. Also I misunderstood how Arcane Shots work, so fair points all around. Personally, I think the math around your hit rate and the need to name the Banishing Shot near the end of each sequence makes it weird for you to state a win rate so definitively.
How do you have a 53% win rate against a wizard that goes first and casts invulnerability though? You literally can't touch them. I remember you saying something about breaking concentration but I'm failing to see how you force a single concentration save against an enemy that is immune to damage. I don't think it's necessary to discuss any other first turn spell options and the potential win rate against an Arcane Archer. The wizard will cast invulnerability and be untouchable. As I see it, the Arcane Archer has 0% win rate against any wizard that foes first (or manages to get a single turn).
In terms of feats, the Wizard doesn't even need to stretch into anything weird or specialized to make this all irrelevant. Grab Tough and the wizard has more HP than the Arcane Archer can chew through even when everything goes right.
1. How are you getting Hex? Fey Touched? So they have a single instance to use the Hex and if they drop it a huge amount of damage is gone for them?
2. You are assuming a 100% failure rate of the wizard against the CHA save for Banishing?
3. Your damages are WAY off.....
see the calculator here with an anticipated AC of 23 for the wizard: https://imgur.com/suNXmik
So factoring in the AC you are looking at an average of 60 damage without advantage (as you have no source of it) you are looking at a measly 60 DPR...which is...something I guess.
The wizard build I put up has 162 HP with the tough feat: https://www.dndbeyond.com/profile/OptimusGrimus/characters/42280575
This means that even burning two rounds of attacks with action surge you will only put out ~120 damage for full fury.
Also the chrono wizard could simply just take another level of exhaustion...its only halves movement which is not really a worry as the fight will be over as soon as they go anyway.
Also Invulnerability is just one way to win for the wizard....they could also turn into https://www.dndbeyond.com/monsters/ancient-brass-dragon
With legendary actions and resistances they are simply going to just wipe the floor with the fighter.
Pretty much every build I have seen for fighter has boiled down to: "If these 10 things happen exactly as I need them to, the 20th level wizard with god like intelligence has absolutely 0 prep time, and has not used any of its long standing abilites the fighter will win approximately 50% of the time!"
Like I get it....you want the fighter to win to justify the idea that they worth going all the way to 20 with....but honestly once 6th level spells come into play martials are just mostly blown out of the water at that point. Its not fair either I get it...I hate playing beyond level 12 for that very reason and its a big reason why 99% of games will not reach level 15. Its not a well balanced tier and it makes most martials into shadows of casters.
The real world scenario is that the wizard has things prepared for this fight just like any player would. They would have a simulacrum because why wouldn't you?
Thats the real potential for wizards as they are masters of planning ahead and if the only way the fighter actually has a slim chance of winning you have to ignore the majority of the features given to them by high level spell casting....which is a pretty big advantage to fighter and even then we are looking at a 50% chance of winning?
ooof......
A successful Banishing arrow hit breaks concentration, as it incapacitates the wizard. If the only thing a wizard does round 1 is cast Invulnerability, then we break it with our first turn, then rely on pumping out enough damage over two full turns. My math showed a perfect 142 with Lucky and average damage. I then factored in a Temporal Shunt save round 1. They can attempt temporal shunts on rounds 2 and 3, but it removes shield and we have a pretty good chance to save against it, at which point our damage will skyrocket thanks to the wizard having no shield.
142 with 16 Con was my original target that you offered to me, and you just changed it to 14 Con and Tough on Vhuman. That's absolutely fine to keep tweaking builds to alter the matchup, and I can look at things further in a bit, but I think I gave a fair analysis of the initial matchup. I still beat out Tough when going first, but I need to find a little bit more damage against Tough when going second. Luckily, the Tough build has dumped Charisma, so I can probably afford to drop some Int points and look at other feats.
Like I've said to HeironymusZot, this was an initial take at the build thrown at me, which was a 142 HP wizard. Against a Convergent Future AND Tough, I'd have to look out a bit further, as even if he doesn't burn shield on round 1, I can't one round him with average damage. If the wizard doesn't immediately shield, I would burn all three Luck points in my opening salvo Sharpshooter hits, and would burn a saveless arrow that deals more damage instead of Banishing arrow. Average rolls will put me a little under my target (~157), but I only need a bit above average to win and I don't have to deal with any other fail points like saving against spells or banishing arrow being saved against. I'd start looking at changing out Feats against a Chronogist to get a bit more damage, as I don't need 20 Int if they are burning Convergent Future on saves. I'll look further on this to see if its possible to eek out a few more points of damage.
None of the above is "if 10 things go perfectly for me". Of my initial numbers, all of my rolls are likely to succeed, I use average damage, and my total final percentages factor in every small but compounding fail point. They are accurate.
I am not trying to claim that this fighter just crushes all wizards and is the super favored matchup to win, and readily admitted there are other wizard tactics I hadn't gone over yet that could shift the odds, so stop oofing. There's no need for that. I presented a strong build against one common wizard build and opening, which was said to be a death sentence against fighters. For normally being written off as an autoloss in this scenario, I think the chances I've presented are pretty dang good.
Ancient Brass Dragon is a great example of another powerful opening thanks to its legendary saves - thanks for that. I don't currently have a way to drop its concentration. Drow High Magic is the only option I can think of the top of my head, and that one is a big risk, with only a 20% success rate (36% with Luck). It also forces banishing arrows into my last attack each turn, thanks to the damage loss I have for Dispelling, and still needs me to eek out a few extra points of damage while sacrificing Int to get Drow High Magic. All in all, this one is a strong opening that heavily favors the wizard if they go first, and does mean that I need like 10 things to go right in order to win. Not impossible, but pretty unlikely.
"Sharpshooter hits"
If you are using Sharpshooter then the damage ratios would change and likely lower with an AC of 23 just FYI. Its actually better to probably just shoot normally vs. taking the sharpshooter penalty at that high of an AC.
Otherwise I appreciate your thoughtful response and I apologize if I came across as hostile. You are definitely right that the arcane archer likely has the best shot at defeating the wizard based on what you have presented as their banishing arrow is something that would likely be hard to counter as wizard as it is not a spell!
I th ink we can both agree that in general a wizard will likely win in a general scenario just due to the sheer number of options afforded to them. A fighter does have a decent chance if they are going first and get some good damage rolls though as you have presented.
Sharpshooter only exists for if the wizard attempts a reaction other than shield, like Convergent Future or Temporal Shunt. In those cases, the wizard only has 18 AC and Sharpshooter has a higher damage output. Otherwise, you are correct, shooting normally is best.
And yep, I think wizard has the overall advantage in the fight, especially if Chronogist is allowed. That +15 initiative in your build in definitely hard to overcome, and the dragon opening is I think stronger than some of the other openings presented.
Your arcane archer post has given me more respect for the subclass!
They are quite good in the right setup.
Agreed
I would tend to dis-allow any of the Wildemont stuff. Classes and spells are not balanced with the main rules.