I guess this can also into rules & mechanics but I'm bad at math so also asking which is better tip-wise;
I've personally disliked cantrips that require a saving throw because as they say its "save or suck" and unlike a spell where you usually do half damage, with a cantrip you do no damage at all (I dont blame it, it's a free spell and would give literally free damage.. evocation wizards are great with that)
But then it hit me that even attack roll spells are still hit or miss....but I still feel uncomfortable with saving throw cantrips because 1) there's still that psychological factor of ME rolling vs YOU rolling a saving.. where at least I missed as opposed to you foiled my spell 2) AC is a little more controlled.. with a hit modifier of 5-11 and ACs even at higher levels rarely going above 20 it's generally a 50% of better where depending on the enemy and their saves they can have really high saves and you only have a spell DC of 14-18..
I'm also really bad at math, does anyone have the actual number crunches of whether they even out or if one method is actually superior?
It really depends. AC becomes less and less of an issue as you level up, because it doesn't increase all that much. Usually an attack against an AC that is average for your level has a 50/50 chance of hitting.
Saving throws are much more random though, because ennemies might simply not have the relevant proficiency. Some monsters might be high level, but suck at certain saving throws, like Sibriex, who rocks an amazing -4 on DEX saving throws (and nothing great on CON, STR, or WIS). Even the classical Beholder only has a +2 to DEX saving throws.
And even if those monsters have Legendary Resistance, you should count yourself so lucky should they use it against a cantrip.
So really, it depends. And you should probably adapt your strategy to what's in front of you - if it seems bulky and clumsy, attacking its dex is always a good idea.
There’s also disadvantage to consider. I had a cleric in my last campaign, and when the Monster was forcing disadvantage on attack rolls, I knew it wouldn’t apply to me, since I wasn’t attacking, I was forcing baddies to save. I agree it wasn’t as satisfying as rolling myself, but it was nice to effectively be “immune” to the attacks that force disadvantage.
On the other hand, you can’t crit when you force a saving throw on someone else.
In conclusion, math is hard, and you will never need to do algebra after high school.
It all depends on the situation. A saving throw cantrip has the same save chance even if the caster has 3 levels of exhaustion. An attack roll cantrip, not so much.
I find it is good to have a mix (one attack roll, one WIS/INT/CHA save)
Keep in mind that they're not really meant to be balanced, especially the ranged cantrips. Most damaging cantrips that require Saving Throws have additional effects to make up for the lower chance to "hit," overall lower damage, and overall lower range. Attack cantrips typically have weaker secondary effects, and most of the ranged ones are just straight up damage. Indeed, I believe the only ranged attack cantrips that have a secondary effect are Ray of Frost which reduces the targets movement speed for a turn and Thorn Whip which pulls them towards you.
Compare this to Save cantrips, ranged ones in particular, and you'll see they have much greater secondary effects:
Sword Burst, Thunderclap and Word of Radiance don't have range, but they all hit everything around you which is a bonus in the same vein compared to any melee-ranged Attack cantrips.
Poison Spray and Toll the Dead are the only two that don't have secondary effects, and each of them does (potentially) 1d12 damage, the highest of any Cantrip besides pimped-out Eldritch Blast.
Here is a few numbers for you. Consider an average "tier 2" character with a + to his spell casting modifier.
A ranged attack against a low AC opponent (AC=10) would have a 90% chance to hit, against a medium (15) AC this drops to 65% and against a high (20) AC opponent it goes to 40% (assuming no advantage/disadvantage) .
A creature with a modifier of -2 would get hit 80% of the time, with a modifier of +2 this decreases to 60% and with a modifier of +7 this decreases to 35% so as other have said this implies on average a saving cantrip will hit less than a ranged attack but as Jaysburn pointed out the saving throw cantrips generally do a little more. The big thing though is to attack to their weak point, against an enemy wizard a ranged attack might be best but against his bodyguard in plate armor use a saving throw attack (not con or str).
Spell attacks scale better with level - or rather, armor doesn't go up as much as save modifiers do for high-powered critters. Many boss-type critters or other powerful Tier 3+ stuff will have absolutely ridiculous scores in common saves, making Save cantrips effectively useless. This is because such critters need those obnoxiously high saves in order to avoid being invalidated by higher-level spells, but the fact that your Toll the Dead isn't nearly as powerful as a Hold Monster spell doesn't mean the critter suddenly doesn't have a +25 to its Wisdom save because the designers decided the critter should be immune to Hold Monster.
It sucks, and it means attack cantrips are usually strictly superior to save cantrips. Yeah okay, save cantrips sometimes have beneficial secondary effects that attack cantrips often don't, but let's remember that the strongest non-damage secondary effect of any cantrip - destroying the target's reaction - comes from an attack cantrip. If, admittedly, a short-range one. Very few save cantrips' secondary effects are worth the dismal success chance at higher levels and the fact that most of them deal barely half the damage of comparable attack cantrips.
My general rule has been to take the best attack cantrip available to your spell list/character theme, then fill the rest of your cantrip list with useful utility cantrips you're guaranteed to be glad you took, rather than wondering for the seven hundredth time why you even bothered taking Sacred Flame because even CR 1/8 critters always seem to have at least +8 to their frickin' Dex saves.
My general rule has been to take the best attack cantrip available to your spell list/character theme, then fill the rest of your cantrip list with useful utility cantrips you're guaranteed to be glad you took, rather than wondering for the seven hundredth time why you even bothered taking Sacred Flame because even CR 1/8 critters always seem to have at least +8 to their frickin' Dex saves.
I think that is an exaggeration, I haven't played much at tier 3+ but I do remember having the opposite problem at low levels, the first time I fought a hobgoblin we couldn't hit it at all. When as a cleric I switched from melee to sacred flame the tide was turned.
I tend to go with an attack cantrip and a save cantrip (with the rest non combat) ideally the save should be against a mental ability as I think high AC characters are more likely to low mental stats than physical ones.
Let's look at a level 1 example. Your spell DC is 13, attack bonus is +5. If the target has a good dexterity (+2), it will fail saves 50% of the time (on rolls 1-10).
If we also give it some pretty good medium armor, it will have AC 16 (breastplate +2 dex). You will hit this 50% of the time.
So I'd suggest judging by the quality of the opponent's armor. Anything lighter than a breastplate, the attack roll will do better. (Did anyone else hit with a roll below 10?)
Any heavier armor than that, or if the target carries a shield, the dexterity saving throw will probably be better.
If you think they have proficiency in dex saves, the attack roll will probably be better. If you can target a weak wisdom save, do that.
Keep in mind that they're not really meant to be balanced, especially the ranged cantrips. Most damaging cantrips that require Saving Throws have additional effects to make up for the lower chance to "hit," overall lower damage, and overall lower range. Attack cantrips typically have weaker secondary effects, and most of the ranged ones are just straight up damage. Indeed, I believe the only ranged attack cantrips that have a secondary effect are Ray of Frost which reduces the targets movement speed for a turn and Thorn Whip which pulls them towards you.
Compare this to Save cantrips, ranged ones in particular, and you'll see they have much greater secondary effects:
Sword Burst, Thunderclap and Word of Radiance don't have range, but they all hit everything around you which is a bonus in the same vein compared to any melee-ranged Attack cantrips.
Poison Spray and Toll the Dead are the only two that don't have secondary effects, and each of them does (potentially) 1d12 damage, the highest of any Cantrip besides pimped-out Eldritch Blast.
Nice list but no mention of Chill Touch, its a cantrip, ranged spell attack with 120ft range plus: "1d8 necrotic damage, & target can't regain hit points until the start of your next turn". This would be 1 of the 3 most powerful non-save ranged spell attack cantrips with secondary effect (you mentioned both Ray of Frost and Thorn Whip). Preventing the target from healing can be LIFE SAVING (and ending).
Create Bonfire is the only "lasting", up to 1 minute or 10 turns, damage dealing cantrip & the only damage dealing cantrip requiring concentration. 100% a must have cantrip to always have up, if your not concentrating on a "level classed" spell. Repeated (max 3 additional) uses of Control Flame, used in combination with Create Bonfire allows 4 max, connected, 5 foot cubes of areas of effect. You can quickly fill a small area with a huge bonfire causing 1d8, to 4d8, fire damage...at 1st level with 2 cantrips up to a 20 foot square area bonfire (more likley a "shape" combination of 4x connected 5ft areas), or go casting protected by a "wall" of fire you can "move" (dismiss 1 of the additional 5ft areas as a bonus action, recast Control Flame to move it to a new spot)
If you only ever get 1 wizard cantrip though, Sword Burst is a great "oh, crap" button at ANY level, when totally surrounded, even for a fighter. Verbal only & forcing a Dex save as a progressively the better option over forcing a constitution save as enemy CR increases, many low CR creatures have low Con, fewer the higher CR goes up.
This is especially true for "common" enemies with a CR of 3+, very VERY few of the common ones have a low Con, many have decent Dex too, but more have higher Con saves. At Cr 1/2+ (CR 0.5+) even your average Orc, Any Bear, Owlbear or more than half of the "large" or bigger sized monstrosity or Beast. Unless your going heavy on big cats/insects, Drow or the "faster" reptiles, Dex is a slightly better choice between the 2, too bad there isnt a Charisma save option lol.
This is why Toll the Dead is so OP as a cantrip with its Wis save & 4.5/6.5 average damage 1st level, ignoring range that's somewhere near equal to a light crossbow, longbow or even heavy crossbow. Up to 4d12+5 for a cleric with potent spell-casting, 53 single target damage at level 17+ from a cantrip, only Poison Spray (not really) and Eldritch Blast compete with it, Fire Bolt if your an invoker
My general rule has been to take the best attack cantrip available to your spell list/character theme, then fill the rest of your cantrip list with useful utility cantrips you're guaranteed to be glad you took, rather than wondering for the seven hundredth time why you even bothered taking Sacred Flame because even CR 1/8 critters always seem to have at least +8 to their frickin' Dex saves.
I think that is an exaggeration, I haven't played much at tier 3+ but I do remember having the opposite problem at low levels, the first time I fought a hobgoblin we couldn't hit it at all. When as a cleric I switched from melee to sacred flame the tide was turned.
I tend to go with an attack cantrip and a save cantrip (with the rest non combat) ideally the save should be against a mental ability as I think high AC characters are more likely to low mental stats than physical ones.
So basically 4 "Must Have" cantrips for most arcane spell casters: Toll the Dead, Shocking Grasp, Chill Touch, & Fire Bolt (or Vicious Mockery and/or Eldritch Blast) are the "go to" options to cover ranged and melee cantrips. Add, Create Bonfire for a "Concentration" cantrip with damage, it has a Dex save, when cast if creature occupies its space mind you.
But Green-Flame Blade is likely the "better" melee option, with a dagger or 2-hand wielded quarter staff (or racial feature weapon, ie a Drow Sorcerer with a rapier or Githyanki/Hobgoblin Wizard with a greatsword casting Green-Flame Blade), unless your dex and/or str are both very low or the target has huge AC.
Create Bonfire is the only "lasting", up to 1 minute or 10 turns, damage dealing cantrip & the only damage dealing cantrip requiring concentration. 100% a must have cantrip to always have up, if your not concentrating on a "level classed" spell. Repeated (max 3 additional) uses of Control Flame, used in combination with Create Bonfire allows 4 max, connected, 5 foot cubes of areas of effect. You can quickly fill a small area with a huge bonfire causing 1d8, to 4d8, fire damage...at 1st level with 2 cantrips up to a 20 foot square area bonfire (more likley a "shape" combination of 4x connected 5ft areas), or go casting protected by a "wall" of fire you can "move" (dismiss 1 of the additional 5ft areas as a bonus action, recast Control Flame to move it to a new spot)
Control Flame specifically states that it only affects non-magical flame. It also requires fuel in the new tile. This doesn't work with the rules as written.
Create Bonfire is the only "lasting", up to 1 minute or 10 turns, damage dealing cantrip & the only damage dealing cantrip requiring concentration. 100% a must have cantrip to always have up, if your not concentrating on a "level classed" spell. Repeated (max 3 additional) uses of Control Flame, used in combination with Create Bonfire allows 4 max, connected, 5 foot cubes of areas of effect. You can quickly fill a small area with a huge bonfire causing 1d8, to 4d8, fire damage...at 1st level with 2 cantrips up to a 20 foot square area bonfire (more likley a "shape" combination of 4x connected 5ft areas), or go casting protected by a "wall" of fire you can "move" (dismiss 1 of the additional 5ft areas as a bonus action, recast Control Flame to move it to a new spot)
Control Flame specifically states that it only affects non-magical flame. It also requires fuel in the new tile. This doesn't work with the rules as written.
It was a cool idea though. I had visions of a Tiefling Sorlock quickening one and then casting the other. Flames of Phlegethos to really enjoy the flavor. Maybe I'll find a DM willing to let it fly.
Edit: if the fuel is there and in the square of the bonfire, the bonfire does ignite material that is flammable and not being worn. That's at least grounds to consider that some of the fire is nonmagical.
Another thing to note anytime spell save vs attack roll comes up is if your DM likes to use a critical fail table. You can essentially make a character who will never crit fail by prioritizing save spells over attack roll spells and doing everything you can to limit the enemies ability to save. Get access or have a party member cast bestow curse on an enemy and give it disadvantage on a chosen save weakness. Improve your spell casting stat (INT, WIS, CHA). If using UA Mind Sliver is a great way to force a d4 minus to whatever they roll and would even stack with bestow curse. In a game where crit fails are a thing you can make yourself and the party hugely immune with the right plays off each other.
This is one reason I no longer run with a crit fail table. Its easy for casters to dodge ever getting affected by it and penalizes martial classes (esspecially the champion fighter) unfairly.
When it comes to pure math, and ive don't more research than I probably should have, it really depends on level. Over the Course of a 1-20 campaign its roughly 50/50 give or take 5 percent. Now at lower levels fighting things like goblins, gnolls and the such generally speaking save cantrips will have the edge. As things progress and enemy saves become more substantial, attack rolls take center stage. I suspect this is why Evokers, who are meant to be the closest thing to a blaster wizard that you can get, potent cantrip is worded exactly how it is. It allows you to pick save cantrips to start and keep them effective as your levels progress. Really at the end of the day of you want cantrips to be consistent and effective damage dealers thought a characters career then go Evoker and pic create bonfire and toll the dead. If you are playing some other kind of wizard then pic 1 damage dealing cantrip. I recommend chill touch or ray of frost, depending if you are in an undead heavy campaign or not. Pick your other cantrips based on utility and character theme.
statwise, you're more likely to hit than a creature to have the target fail a save, unless you know that their stats are garbage (e.g. for mind sliver, a rare INT save; a good number will not succeed). Monster AC is usually no higher than 26 (they may have a crazy magic item that foils it), but it tends to be from 12ish to around 20, so with +5 on the attack (16 of needed stat at 1-4th level), you got 25-65% to hit
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I guess this can also into rules & mechanics but I'm bad at math so also asking which is better tip-wise;
I've personally disliked cantrips that require a saving throw because as they say its "save or suck" and unlike a spell where you usually do half damage, with a cantrip you do no damage at all (I dont blame it, it's a free spell and would give literally free damage.. evocation wizards are great with that)
But then it hit me that even attack roll spells are still hit or miss....but I still feel uncomfortable with saving throw cantrips because 1) there's still that psychological factor of ME rolling vs YOU rolling a saving.. where at least I missed as opposed to you foiled my spell 2) AC is a little more controlled.. with a hit modifier of 5-11 and ACs even at higher levels rarely going above 20 it's generally a 50% of better where depending on the enemy and their saves they can have really high saves and you only have a spell DC of 14-18..
I'm also really bad at math, does anyone have the actual number crunches of whether they even out or if one method is actually superior?
It really depends. AC becomes less and less of an issue as you level up, because it doesn't increase all that much. Usually an attack against an AC that is average for your level has a 50/50 chance of hitting.
Saving throws are much more random though, because ennemies might simply not have the relevant proficiency. Some monsters might be high level, but suck at certain saving throws, like Sibriex, who rocks an amazing -4 on DEX saving throws (and nothing great on CON, STR, or WIS). Even the classical Beholder only has a +2 to DEX saving throws.
And even if those monsters have Legendary Resistance, you should count yourself so lucky should they use it against a cantrip.
So really, it depends. And you should probably adapt your strategy to what's in front of you - if it seems bulky and clumsy, attacking its dex is always a good idea.
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There’s also disadvantage to consider. I had a cleric in my last campaign, and when the Monster was forcing disadvantage on attack rolls, I knew it wouldn’t apply to me, since I wasn’t attacking, I was forcing baddies to save. I agree it wasn’t as satisfying as rolling myself, but it was nice to effectively be “immune” to the attacks that force disadvantage.
On the other hand, you can’t crit when you force a saving throw on someone else.
In conclusion, math is hard, and you will never need to do algebra after high school.
You will probably want one of each if you get enough cantrips to justify it (like from multiclassing).
It all depends on the situation. A saving throw cantrip has the same save chance even if the caster has 3 levels of exhaustion. An attack roll cantrip, not so much.
I find it is good to have a mix (one attack roll, one WIS/INT/CHA save)
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Keep in mind that they're not really meant to be balanced, especially the ranged cantrips. Most damaging cantrips that require Saving Throws have additional effects to make up for the lower chance to "hit," overall lower damage, and overall lower range. Attack cantrips typically have weaker secondary effects, and most of the ranged ones are just straight up damage. Indeed, I believe the only ranged attack cantrips that have a secondary effect are Ray of Frost which reduces the targets movement speed for a turn and Thorn Whip which pulls them towards you.
Compare this to Save cantrips, ranged ones in particular, and you'll see they have much greater secondary effects:
Acid Splash can hit two enemies, Frostbite causes disadvantage on the next weapon attack, Infestation forces random movement, Lightning Lure pulls them towards you, Sacred Flame isn't hindered by cover, and Vicious Mockery causes disadvantage on the next attack roll.
Sword Burst, Thunderclap and Word of Radiance don't have range, but they all hit everything around you which is a bonus in the same vein compared to any melee-ranged Attack cantrips.
Poison Spray and Toll the Dead are the only two that don't have secondary effects, and each of them does (potentially) 1d12 damage, the highest of any Cantrip besides pimped-out Eldritch Blast.
Here is a few numbers for you. Consider an average "tier 2" character with a + to his spell casting modifier.
A ranged attack against a low AC opponent (AC=10) would have a 90% chance to hit, against a medium (15) AC this drops to 65% and against a high (20) AC opponent it goes to 40% (assuming no advantage/disadvantage) .
A creature with a modifier of -2 would get hit 80% of the time, with a modifier of +2 this decreases to 60% and with a modifier of +7 this decreases to 35% so as other have said this implies on average a saving cantrip will hit less than a ranged attack but as Jaysburn pointed out the saving throw cantrips generally do a little more. The big thing though is to attack to their weak point, against an enemy wizard a ranged attack might be best but against his bodyguard in plate armor use a saving throw attack (not con or str).
Spell attacks scale better with level - or rather, armor doesn't go up as much as save modifiers do for high-powered critters. Many boss-type critters or other powerful Tier 3+ stuff will have absolutely ridiculous scores in common saves, making Save cantrips effectively useless. This is because such critters need those obnoxiously high saves in order to avoid being invalidated by higher-level spells, but the fact that your Toll the Dead isn't nearly as powerful as a Hold Monster spell doesn't mean the critter suddenly doesn't have a +25 to its Wisdom save because the designers decided the critter should be immune to Hold Monster.
It sucks, and it means attack cantrips are usually strictly superior to save cantrips. Yeah okay, save cantrips sometimes have beneficial secondary effects that attack cantrips often don't, but let's remember that the strongest non-damage secondary effect of any cantrip - destroying the target's reaction - comes from an attack cantrip. If, admittedly, a short-range one. Very few save cantrips' secondary effects are worth the dismal success chance at higher levels and the fact that most of them deal barely half the damage of comparable attack cantrips.
My general rule has been to take the best attack cantrip available to your spell list/character theme, then fill the rest of your cantrip list with useful utility cantrips you're guaranteed to be glad you took, rather than wondering for the seven hundredth time why you even bothered taking Sacred Flame because even CR 1/8 critters always seem to have at least +8 to their frickin' Dex saves.
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I think that is an exaggeration, I haven't played much at tier 3+ but I do remember having the opposite problem at low levels, the first time I fought a hobgoblin we couldn't hit it at all. When as a cleric I switched from melee to sacred flame the tide was turned.
I tend to go with an attack cantrip and a save cantrip (with the rest non combat) ideally the save should be against a mental ability as I think high AC characters are more likely to low mental stats than physical ones.
Let's look at a level 1 example. Your spell DC is 13, attack bonus is +5.
If the target has a good dexterity (+2), it will fail saves 50% of the time (on rolls 1-10).
If we also give it some pretty good medium armor, it will have AC 16 (breastplate +2 dex). You will hit this 50% of the time.
So I'd suggest judging by the quality of the opponent's armor. Anything lighter than a breastplate, the attack roll will do better. (Did anyone else hit with a roll below 10?)
Any heavier armor than that, or if the target carries a shield, the dexterity saving throw will probably be better.
If you think they have proficiency in dex saves, the attack roll will probably be better. If you can target a weak wisdom save, do that.
Nice list but no mention of Chill Touch, its a cantrip, ranged spell attack with 120ft range plus: "1d8 necrotic damage, & target can't regain hit points until the start of your next turn". This would be 1 of the 3 most powerful non-save ranged spell attack cantrips with secondary effect (you mentioned both Ray of Frost and Thorn Whip). Preventing the target from healing can be LIFE SAVING (and ending).
Overall, Eldritch Blast, Chill Touch, Fire Bolt, Produce Flame, Ray of Frost and Thorn Whip are, imho, the best" "no-save" ranged cantrips, a nod to "Magic Stone" for allowing allies to throw them using your modifier on rolls. Add Create Bonfire for a "Concentration" cantrip with damage, it has a Dex save, when cast if creature occupies its space mind you.
Create Bonfire is the only "lasting", up to 1 minute or 10 turns, damage dealing cantrip & the only damage dealing cantrip requiring concentration. 100% a must have cantrip to always have up, if your not concentrating on a "level classed" spell. Repeated (max 3 additional) uses of Control Flame, used in combination with Create Bonfire allows 4 max, connected, 5 foot cubes of areas of effect. You can quickly fill a small area with a huge bonfire causing 1d8, to 4d8, fire damage...at 1st level with 2 cantrips up to a 20 foot square area bonfire (more likley a "shape" combination of 4x connected 5ft areas), or go casting protected by a "wall" of fire you can "move" (dismiss 1 of the additional 5ft areas as a bonus action, recast Control Flame to move it to a new spot)
Shocking Grasp, Booming Blade, Green-Flame Blade, & Primal Savagery are, imho, the best "no-save" melee/touch cantrips, a nod to "Shillelagh" for its combining ability on top of its own offerings.
If you only ever get 1 wizard cantrip though, Sword Burst is a great "oh, crap" button at ANY level, when totally surrounded, even for a fighter. Verbal only & forcing a Dex save as a progressively the better option over forcing a constitution save as enemy CR increases, many low CR creatures have low Con, fewer the higher CR goes up.
This is especially true for "common" enemies with a CR of 3+, very VERY few of the common ones have a low Con, many have decent Dex too, but more have higher Con saves. At Cr 1/2+ (CR 0.5+) even your average Orc, Any Bear, Owlbear or more than half of the "large" or bigger sized monstrosity or Beast. Unless your going heavy on big cats/insects, Drow or the "faster" reptiles, Dex is a slightly better choice between the 2, too bad there isnt a Charisma save option lol.
This is why Toll the Dead is so OP as a cantrip with its Wis save & 4.5/6.5 average damage 1st level, ignoring range that's somewhere near equal to a light crossbow, longbow or even heavy crossbow. Up to 4d12+5 for a cleric with potent spell-casting, 53 single target damage at level 17+ from a cantrip, only Poison Spray (not really) and Eldritch Blast compete with it, Fire Bolt if your an invoker
So basically 4 "Must Have" cantrips for most arcane spell casters: Toll the Dead, Shocking Grasp, Chill Touch, & Fire Bolt (or Vicious Mockery and/or Eldritch Blast) are the "go to" options to cover ranged and melee cantrips. Add, Create Bonfire for a "Concentration" cantrip with damage, it has a Dex save, when cast if creature occupies its space mind you.
But Green-Flame Blade is likely the "better" melee option, with a dagger or 2-hand wielded quarter staff (or racial feature weapon, ie a Drow Sorcerer with a rapier or Githyanki/Hobgoblin Wizard with a greatsword casting Green-Flame Blade), unless your dex and/or str are both very low or the target has huge AC.
Control Flame specifically states that it only affects non-magical flame. It also requires fuel in the new tile. This doesn't work with the rules as written.
It was a cool idea though. I had visions of a Tiefling Sorlock quickening one and then casting the other. Flames of Phlegethos to really enjoy the flavor. Maybe I'll find a DM willing to let it fly.
Edit: if the fuel is there and in the square of the bonfire, the bonfire does ignite material that is flammable and not being worn. That's at least grounds to consider that some of the fire is nonmagical.
Create Bonfire is still a pretty sick cantrip if someone else in the party can hold the enemy in a square for you.
Another thing to note anytime spell save vs attack roll comes up is if your DM likes to use a critical fail table. You can essentially make a character who will never crit fail by prioritizing save spells over attack roll spells and doing everything you can to limit the enemies ability to save. Get access or have a party member cast bestow curse on an enemy and give it disadvantage on a chosen save weakness. Improve your spell casting stat (INT, WIS, CHA). If using UA Mind Sliver is a great way to force a d4 minus to whatever they roll and would even stack with bestow curse. In a game where crit fails are a thing you can make yourself and the party hugely immune with the right plays off each other.
This is one reason I no longer run with a crit fail table. Its easy for casters to dodge ever getting affected by it and penalizes martial classes (esspecially the champion fighter) unfairly.
When it comes to pure math, and ive don't more research than I probably should have, it really depends on level. Over the Course of a 1-20 campaign its roughly 50/50 give or take 5 percent. Now at lower levels fighting things like goblins, gnolls and the such generally speaking save cantrips will have the edge. As things progress and enemy saves become more substantial, attack rolls take center stage. I suspect this is why Evokers, who are meant to be the closest thing to a blaster wizard that you can get, potent cantrip is worded exactly how it is. It allows you to pick save cantrips to start and keep them effective as your levels progress. Really at the end of the day of you want cantrips to be consistent and effective damage dealers thought a characters career then go Evoker and pic create bonfire and toll the dead. If you are playing some other kind of wizard then pic 1 damage dealing cantrip. I recommend chill touch or ray of frost, depending if you are in an undead heavy campaign or not. Pick your other cantrips based on utility and character theme.
statwise, you're more likely to hit than a creature to have the target fail a save, unless you know that their stats are garbage (e.g. for mind sliver, a rare INT save; a good number will not succeed). Monster AC is usually no higher than 26 (they may have a crazy magic item that foils it), but it tends to be from 12ish to around 20, so with +5 on the attack (16 of needed stat at 1-4th level), you got 25-65% to hit
Rogue Shadow, the DM (and occasional) PC with schemes of inventive thinking